Indonesia Economic Quarterly Reports (IEQ)

December 2019 Indonesia Economic Quarterly

Investing in People
Report page | Press release | Download report (.pdf)

Membangun Manusia
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Article:

• Investing in People: Social Protection for Indonesia’s 2045 Vision (Page 34) [desktop] [mobile]

Boxes:

• An economic analysis of the 2019 forest and land fires and haze (Page 7)
• Commodity prices continued declining in Q3 (Page 15)
• State Budget 2020 – Government sets optimistic growth targets for revenue and expenditure amidst global slowdown (Page 29)
• Reducing plastic bag pollution in Indonesia(Page 31)
• Higher tobacco taxation in Indonesia (Page 56)

More:

• Interview with CNBC on Indonesia GDP
• Interview with CNBC on Indonesia fiscal condition

June 2019 Indonesia Economic Quarterly

Ocean of Opportunity
Report page | Press release | Download report (.pdf) | Download presentation (.pdf)

Lautan Peluang
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Article:

• Oceans of opportunity: reforms for a sustainable blue economy in Indonesia (Page 36) [desktop] [mobile]

Boxes:

• After a challenging 2018, the global economy showed further weakening this year (Page 7) [desktop] [mobile]
• Government policies on managing imports  (Page 9) [desktop] [mobile]

More:

• Infographic
• Interview with CNBC
• Video: Netting Blue Opportunities to Fight Marine Plastics

December 2018 Indonesia Economic Quarterly

Strengthening competitiveness
Report page | Press release | Download report (.pdf)

Memperkuat daya saing
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Article:

• Boosting export and investments in indonesia: an agenda for reform (Page 28)

Boxes:

• Global economic conditions softened in Q3   (Page 6)
• A tale of two groups of commodities  (Page 10)
  

September 2018 Indonesia Economic Quarterly

Urbanization for all
Report page | Press release | Download report (.pdf)

Urbanisasi untuk Semua
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Article:

• Making urbanization work for all Indonesians (Page 35)
  
  

Boxes:

• Favorable global economic conditions: have they disappeared? (Page 6)
• Global Commodity Prices for Indonesia’s Key Exports Moved in Different Directions (Page 9)
• Coal exports in 2018 have not increased in line with production increases (Page 10)
• How will trade wars affect Indonesia? (Page 15)
• Acceleration of structural transformation and the revival of the manufacturing employment? (Page 26)
• Indonesia’s portfolio of urban places, 2016 (Page 41)
• A broad programmatic approach for urbanization in Indonesia (Page 56)
  

June 2018 Indonesia Economic Quarterly

Learning more, growing faster
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Pendidikan untuk pertumbuhan
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Article:

• Delivering quality education for indonesia (Page 26)

Boxes:

• Private consumption growth in Indonesia: a cause for concern? (Page 5)
• Alignment of Indonesia policy reform with international best practices  (Page 32)
• KIAT Guru: Improving Teacher Performance and Accountability through Citizen Engagement and Performance-based Pay (Page 46)
• MORA Education and Challenges (Page 49)

March 2018 Indonesia Economic Quarterly

Towards inclusive growth
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Menuju pertumbuhan inklusif
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Article:

• Collecting More And Spending Better For Inclusive Growth(Page 34)

Boxes:

• The global economy ends 2017 on a strong note (Page 2)
• Recent changes in trade policy (Page 27)
• Why is Indonesia’s tax-to-GDP ratio so low? (Page 50)
• Guiding principles for Indonesia’s tax reforms (Page 54)
• Excise taxes to address externalities (Page 56)

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December 2017 Indonesia Economic Quarterly

Decentralization that Delivers
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Mewujudkan hasil desentralisasi
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Article:

• Making Decentralized Democracy Deliver Local Service Improvement: The Role of the Central Government (Page 31)

Boxes:

• Is private consumption recovering? (Page 8)
• How do trends in consumption and VAT growth relate in Indonesia? (Page 21)
• Further advancing on the fuel subsidy reform requires ‘off balance sheet subsidies’ tobe addressed (Page 25)
• How much do oil prices influence Indonesia’s fiscal revenues (Page 27)
• Econometric model to analyze access to basic service performance (Page 36)
• Data issues in tracking local service delivery progress (Page 38)
• Spending Better in DKI Jakarta (Page 51)
  

October 2017 Indonesia Economic Quarterly

Closing the Gap
Report page | Press release | Download report (.pdf)

Menutup kesenjangan
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Article:

• Mobilizing the private sector for infrastructure development (Page 25)

Boxes:

• Food price inflation during Ramadan and Idul Fitri eased this year, partly due to Government efforts (Page 9)
• Prices for most of Indonesia’s key commodities improved in recent months (Page 14)
• Analyzing revenue targets in the 2018 Budget (Page 24)
• Analyzing planned expenditures in the 2018 Budget (Page 25)
• The effects of methodological changes in Sakernas (Page 28)
  

June 2017 Indonesia Economic Quarterly

Upgraded
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Naik peringkat
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Articles:

• The case for increasing investment in the early years (page 25)
• What drives Foreign Direct Investment in Indonesia? (page 34)

Boxes:

• Impacts of the S&P sovereign credit rating upgrade (page 10)
• Indonesia’s Tax Amnesty Program Bodes Well for Improved Tax Collection (page 21)

March 2017 Indonesia Economic Quarterly

Staying the Course
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Melanjutkan perbaikan
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Articles:

• Getting services trade policies right for Indonesia’s development (page 29)
• The new Kredit Usaha Rakyat (KUR) program (page 38)

Boxes:

• Indonesia’s exposure to the United States and United Kingdom economies (page 11)
• Services Trade Restrictiveness Index (page 33)
  

January 2017 Indonesia Economic Quarterly

Sustaining Reform Momentum
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Menjaga Momentum Reformasi
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• Improving the quality of public spending in Indonesia (page 15)
• Towards a better understanding of teaching practices and their impact on student learning outcomes in Indonesia: a video study (page 26)

Boxes:

• Investment climate reforms have improved Indonesia’s Ease of Doing Business (page 4)
• Personnel politics: elections and teacher hiring in Indonesia (page 27)

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October 2016 Indonesia Economic Quarterly

Pressures Easing
Report page | Press release | Download report (.pdf)

Tekanan Mereda
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Articles:

• Accelerating tourism development (page 20)
• Why should Indonesia reframe and reorient its food security policy (page 26)
• Ensuring universal access to safe water and sanitation services to reduce in stunting, poverty and inequality (page 36)
• Double for Nothing? Teacher Certification and Beyond (45)

Boxes:

• What happens when the Government boosts public investment in Indonesia (page 4)
• The Indonesia tax amnesty program  (page 15)

June 2016 Indonesia Economic Quarterly

Resilience through reforms
Report page | Press release | Download report (.pdf)

Tangguh Berkat Reformasi
Halaman laporan | Siaran pers | Download laporan (.pdf)

Articles:

• Why are lending rates and net interest margins high in Indonesia? (page 16)
• The price of trade protectionism in Indonesia (page 21)
• Reviving manufacturing competitiveness (page 27)
• Fiscal policy could better target inequality reduction (page 36)
  

March 2016 Indonesia Economic Quarterly

Private investment is essential
Report page | Press release | Download report (.pdf)

Investasi Swasta Diperlukan
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Article:

• Beyond the ten economic policy packages: addressing significant binding constraints (page 19)
• Public Support for action on inequality has grown (page 24)
• Improving the freight logistics system in Indonesia (page 28)
• Aligning pricing, regulations and investments to support sustainable energy development (page 37)

Boxes:

• Why are domestic rice prices higher than international prices ? (page 7)
• Sub-national governments play an important role in delivering public investment (page 16)
• A snapshot of the logistics industry in Indonesia (pages 35)
• Indonesia’s clean energy policies can yield local and global benefits (page 37)
• Lessons in sound power sector planning from Latin America (page 41)
• Energy efficiency – the cleanest, but under-appreciated domestic resource (page 42)

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December 2015 Indonesia Economic Quarterly

Reforming amid Uncertainty
Report page | Press release | Download report (.pdf)

Reformasi di tengah ketidakpastian
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Articles:

• Indonesia’s fire crisis: Who benefits and who pays (page 18)
• Realizing the potential of the Village Law (page 26)
• The  Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement: Opportunity or threat for Indonesia? (page 31)

Boxes:

• An important and wide-ranging reform process was initiated in December (page 16)
• Certification standards could encourage environmentally friendly production practices (page 19)
• Peat fires have significant consequences for climate change (page 21)
• Other costs – the unknown cumulative impact of fire and haze on flora and fauna (page 24)
• Assessing the equity of Dana Desa allocations by comparing two villages (page 28)

October 2015 Indonesia Economic Quarterly

In times of global volatility
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Di tengah volatilitas global
Halaman laporan | Siaran pers | Download laporan (.pdf)

Articles:

• El Nino is expected to moderately raise domestic rice prices and inflation (page 21)
• Implementing Indonesia’s national health insurance system (page 24)

Boxes:

• How important are trade and direct investment links with China? (page 10)
• The draft 2016 Budget shows continued improvement in the composition of spending but will require significant revenue collection efforts (page 16)
• Methodological changes in the March 2015 SUSENAS make historical comparisons difficult (page 19)
• Summary of government housing programs (page 32)

July 2015 Indonesia Economic Quarterly

Slower gains
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Maju Perlahan
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Articles:

• Indonesia’s current account – deficits are here to stay (page 21)
• Fuel subsidies – a major reform, but not yet a durable one (page 26)
• Geothermal energy in Indonesia: realizing the potential (page 31)
• Ten years of Indonesia’s school grants program (BOS) – successes and challenges (page 37)

Boxes:

• Indonesia’s new CPO export levy may affect global CPO prices, but not necessarily positively (page 9)
• Moving to market-based fuels pricing and raising government revenue while protecting the poor: recent examples from around the world (page 29)
  

March 2015 Indonesia Economic Quarterly

High expectations
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Harapan besar
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Articles:

• Indonesia’s internationally high and volatile rice price (page 25)
• Streamlining business licensing in Indonesia (page 31)
• The sustainable pace of GDP growth in Indonesia: a closer look (page 36)

Boxes:

• Indonesia’s rebased and revised GDP (page 5)
• The end of Indonesia’s export boom (page 10)
• Fuel pricing reforms have slashed  subsidy costs but realizing the full benefits will require transparent and consistent implementation (page 19)
• Past reform initiatives to develop a central OSS and simplify business licenses (page 35)
• Estimating potential output growth in Indonesia (page 38)

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December 2014 Indonesia Economic Quarterly

Delivering change
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Membawa perubahan
Halaman laporan | Siaran pers | Download laporan (.pdf)

Articles:

• Understanding and strengthening Indonesia’s revenue performance (page 22)
• Indonesia and the ASEAN Economic Community (page 29)
• Universal Health Coverage by 2019?. Only with adequate health services (page 37)

Boxes:

• A Financial Conditions Index for Indonesia points to a tightening Since Q3 2013  (page 12)
• The latest increase in subsidized fuel prices is expected to yield significant fiscal savings in 2015 and beyond (page 16)
• Minimum wage increase for 2015: relatively moderate, but still a source of labor market uncertainty (page 20)
• A projected decline in oil and gas revenues reflects long-standing structural declines in production (page 28)

July 2014 Indonesia Economic Quarterly

Hard choices
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Pilihan sulit
Halaman laporan | Siaran pers | Download laporan (.pdf)

Articles:

• El Niño, forest fires and haze: the imperatives for concrete action (page 22)
• New purchasing power parity-adjusted estimates of Indonesia’s economy (page 29)
• Inequality and opportunity in Indonesia (page 33)

Boxes:

• Recent challenges in Indonesia’s commodity export sector  (page 10)
• Weak revenue performance has had a marked negative impact on the fiscal balance in recent years  (page 13)
• Peat, peatland and peat fires (page 23)
• El Niño and ENSO  (page 25)
• The challenge of measuring inequality and comparing across countries (page 35)
• Main findings from new research on risk and risk management in Indonesia (page 42)
  

March 2014 Indonesia Economic Quarterly

Investment in flux
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Investasi tidak menentu
Halaman laporan | Siaran pers | Download laporan (.pdf)

Articles:

• A closer look at Indonesia’s unprocessed mineral export ban (page 19)
• Applying a rapid risk diagnostic approach for building disaster and climate resilience in Indonesia’s growing cities (page 29)
• Indonesia: Avoiding the trap (page 35)

Boxes:

• The determinants of Indonesia’s import demand: investment and exports are important (page 10)
• A Taylor Rule perspective on Indonesia’s monetary policy stance (page 11)
• Following last year’s subsidized fuel price increase, more fuel subsidy reform is needed (page 16)
• International experience in promoting downstream mineral processing (page 28)

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December 2013 Indonesia Economic Quarterly

Slower growth; high risks
Report page | Press release | Download report (.pdf)

Memperkuat daya saing
Halaman laporan | Siaran pers | Download laporan (.pdf)

Articles:

• A closer look at the 2014 Budget (page 23)
• An update on poverty in Indonesia (page 28)
• The labor market in Indonesia: recent achievements and challenges (page 32)
• Local capacity and development in Indonesia (page 38)

Boxes:

• The potential near-term impact of the proposed ban on unprocessed mineral exports on
• Indonesia’s trade balance (page 13)
• Update on the policies to improve the investment climate in Indonesia (page 22)
• BLSM, Susenas and measuring poverty (page 29)
• Local Level Institutions Studies methodology (page 40)
  

October 2013 Indonesia Economic Quarterly

Continuing adjustment
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Penyesuaian berlanjut
Halaman laporan | Siaran pers | Download laporan (.pdf)

Articles:

• The Government's August policy package (page 25)
• Enhancing connectivity through improved port performance (page 30)
• Estimating the stock of infrastructure in Indonesia (page 36)
• Local governance and education performance (page 44)

Boxes:

• An update on unconditional cash transfers and the poverty rate (page 20)
• The fiscal impact of changes in the Rupiah exchange rate and oil prices (page 22
• The sensitivity of GDP growth to investment  (page 24)
• Methodological note on estimating infrastructure capital stock in Indonesia (page 39)
• Empirical studies on the links between public and infrastructure capital stocks and growth (page 40)
• The effect of capacity development grants provided to district education offices (page 48)

July 2013 Indonesia Economic Quarterly

Adjusting to Pressures
Report page | Press release | Download report (.pdf)

Menanggapi berbagai tekanan
Halaman laporan | Siaran pers | Download laporan (.pdf)

Articles:

• Examining the fuel subsidy compensation package (page 26)
• Indonesia’s challenge: implementing the new social security system (page 34)
• Indonesia: Facing up to the Double Burden of Malnutrition (page 40)
• Bureaucracy reform in Indonesia: progress and pitfalls (page 46)

Boxes:

• China’s proposed ban on low quality coal imports poses a risk to coal exports (page 21)
• External debt levels remain modest but liquidity risk has risen (page 22)

March 2013 Indonesia Economic Quarterly

Pressures mounting
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Tekanan Meningkat
Halaman laporan | Siaran pers | Download laporan (.pdf)

Articles:

• A closer look at the preliminary 2012 budget outturn (page 23)
• Understanding the value-added in Indonesia’s trade (page 27)
• Preparing for Indonesia’s urban future: harnessing agglomeration economies (page 31)
• Piecing together the picture of Indonesia’s infrastructure investment needs (page 37)

Boxes:

• Property prices, lending growth and risks to financial stability (page 11)
• A look at the drivers of increasing beef prices in Indonesia (page 13)
• Serious floods in Jakarta caused tragic loss of life, and also serious economic disruption and price increases (page 15)
• Indonesia’s changing import mix: the growth of capital goods imports and the growing role of Asia (page 30)

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December 2012 Indonesia Economic Quarterly

Policies in Focus
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Menyoroti kebijakan
Halaman laporan | Siaran pers | Download laporan (.pdf)

Articles:

• Will rising minimum wages affect job creation in Indonesia (page 21)
• Indonesia’s successes in disaster reconstruction and preparedness (page 32)
• Building Jakarta’s resilience to frequent flooding (page 27)
• Village infrastructure for basic service delivery (page 37)

Boxes:

• Indonesia’s new Food Law (page 8)
• Why has the depreciating Rupiah not had a greater impact on inflation? (page 11)
• Developments in Indonesia’s corporate governance framework (page 13)
• Labor regulations: a “plateau” effect (page 24)
• The impact of the major 2007 flood on Jakarta (page 28)
• Rekompak – community-led reconstruction (page 34)
• A note on reliability in the Supply Readiness Rankings (page 38)

October 2012 Indonesia Economic Quarterly

Maintaining resilence
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Menjaga Ketahanan
Halaman laporan | Siaran pers | Download laporan (.pdf)

Articles:

• Indonesia’s manufactured exports: near-term, dynamics and longer-term trends (page 18)
• The 2013 proposed Budget and the allocation of spending (page 23)
• Drivers behind the rapid growth of government personnel expenditure (page 30)
• The Higher Education Law, a milestone achieved but still a difficult road ahead (page 34)

Boxes:

• The Unified Database–towards better targeted social assistance programs (page 16)
• Medium-term trends in Indonesia’s manufactured exports (page 20)

July 2012 Indonesia Economic Quarterly

Rising to Present and Future Challenges
Report page | Press release | Download report (.pdf)

Mengatasi tantangan saat ini dan ke depan
Halaman laporan | Siaran pers | Download laporan (.pdf)

Articles:

• Drivers and implications of recent trends in Indonesia’s current account (page 21)
• Identifying the constraints to budget execution in the infrastructure sector (page26)
• Investing in Indonesia’s roads (page 31)
• The role of the global marketplace in enhancing domestic competitiveness (page 36)

Boxes:

• Commercial property prices have been increasing strongly, while residential price growth has come down (page 9)
• The “China effect” on global commodity prices (page 20)
• What is the current account balance? (page 22)
• Do local manufacturing firms benefit from greater integration? Some case studies from Jakarta and Surabaya (page 37)
• The potential benefits of input quality and variety for manufacturing competitiveness (page 40)

April 2012 Indonesia Economic Quarterly

Articles:

• 2011 budget performance – a brief review (page 17)
• Doing Business in Indonesia 2012 (page23)
• Building Indonesia’ social safety net (page 27)
• Turning quantity into quality in education (page 36)
• Gender equality is smart economics (page 42)

Boxes:

• The proposed fuel price increase (page 6)
• Fuel subsidies are highly regressive with most benefits going to wealthier households (page 8)
• Looking back to previous fuel price increases (page 11)
• Key features of Indonesia’s new Land Acquisition Law (page 22)
• About Doing Business and Doing Business in Indonesia 2012 (page 24)
• Indonesia’s household-based social assistance programs (page 29)
• BLT and BLSM (page 33)

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December 2011 Indonesia Economic Quarterly

Articles:

• A 2012 Budget focusing on crisis preparedness and medium-term development (page 17)
• The BJPS Law and the transformation of Indonesia social security structure (page 23)
• Indonesia’s manufacturing sector: Floating or reviving? (page 28)
• Innovation and R&D in Indonesia (page 37)

Boxes:

• The passage of the OJK Law (page 8)
• Crisis preparedness measures in the 2012 Budget (page 18)
• The macroeconomic assumptions for the 2012 Budget and medium-term expenditure framework (page 19)
• How do exports of manufactured goods respond to macro-economic incentives? (page 31)
• Recent manufacturing pick up due to strong domestic demand and favorable international developments (page 34)
• An improved investment climate can increase the productivity gains from foreign R&D spillovers (page 36)
• Competitive research grants (page 41)

October 2011 Indonesia Economic Quarterly

Articles:

• The potential spillovers from the deteriorating global outlook to Indonesia (page 17)
• Using PPPs to address Indonesia infrastructure challenges (page 24)
• Sub-national spending is not delivering (page 30)
• Identifying constraints to inclusive growth in East Java (page 38)

Boxes:

• Potential benefits of PPPs for delivery of infrastructure services (page 24)
• PPP experience in India (page 28)
• An overview of current transfer mechanisms in Indonesia from the central to subnational governments (page 32)
• A brief introduction to inclusive growth diagnostics (page 39)

June 2011 Indonesia Economic Quarterly

Articles:

• ASEAN 2011: Indonesia’ Chairmanship (page 18)
• The revival of foreign direct investment (FDI) into Indonesia? (page 21)
• Addressing Indonesia’s infrastructure challenges to enhance competitiveness and growth (page 28)
• Connectivity and the Master Plan 2011-2025 (page 32)

Boxes:

• Recent rice price developments in Indonesia (page 7)
• Indonesia’s potential in the multi-polar world (page 17)
• Different sources of data on FDI inflows into Indonesia (page 23)
• Optimistic outlook, but challenges remain: the views of Japanese-affiliate companies in Indonesia (page 26)
• The literature on infrastructure and growth a very brief overview (page 31)
• Geographical distance versus economic distance in Indonesia (page 36)

March 2011 Indonesia Economic Quarterly

Articles:

• Recent rises in food prices and their impact on poor and vulnerable households  (page 18)
• Indonesia’s fuel subsidies: past experience and lessons from other countries (page 24)
• Indonesia’s changing patterns of consumption growth from 1996 to 2010 (page 31)
• Looking towards a rising middle class in Indonesia (page 38)

Boxes:

• Global oil price developments and Indonesia (page 2)
• Nominal investment trends in Indonesia (page 5)
• A snapshot of the changing patterns of Indonesia’s exports (page 8)
• The case study of the evolution of Bangladesh’s food policy (page 22)
• A brief introduction to growth incidence curves (page 32)
• There are several measures of inequality which seek to capture the distribution of households’ economic outcomes (page 35)

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December 2010 Indonesia Economic Quarterly

Articles:

• Managing capital inflows: Policy options for Indonesia (page 12)
• Quality of public spending and disbursement profile in Indonesia (page 16)

Boxes:

• Moody’s puts Indonesian government bonds on review for ratings upgrade (page 5)
• Allocation and spending for the Ministry of Health (page 18)
• Enhancing internal control and supervision can improve quality of spending (page 19)
• A brief introduction to the Jamkesmas program (page 28)

September 2010 Indonesia Economic Quarterly

Articles:

• Update on the ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement (page 21)
• Piercing together insights into the  movements in household purchasing power (page 26)
• Medium-term macroeconomic projections (page 30) 

Boxes:

• Recent rice price developments (page 11)
• The July 2010 electricity tariff adjustment : a modest first step to better targeted energy subsidies at a lower burden on the budget (page 17)
• Focus on Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) (page 37)
• Severance Reform Options (page 43)
• PNPM Generasi Target Indicators (page 49)

June 2010 Indonesia Economic Quarterly

Articles:

• High lending rates and net interest margins in Indonesia: The sky’s the limit? (page 23)
• How the GDP deflator has diverged from the CPI in the late 2000s, and what this means for projecting the government’s revenues (page 29)
• Commodity price movements are large and hard to forecast...and matter for Indonesia’s growth, inflation and public finances (page 34)
• While commodity prices fluctuations mostly affect prices and the nominal economy in the short-term, there is some response in real activity (page 36)

Boxes:

• How a stronger  Chinese Renmimbi would impact Indonesia’s economy (page 5)
• A new tax on cocoa exports (page 19)
• Climate change issues: land use change and forestry (page 42)

March 2010 Indonesia Economic Quarterly

Articles:

• Estimating the impact of Indonesia’s fiscal stimulus (page24)
• The ongoing implementation of the ASEAN-China free trade agreement (page 27)
• Capital inflows and central bank sterilization (page 32)
• The impact of Indonesia’s ’20 per cent rule’ on the level and quality of education spending (page 35)

Boxes:

• Identifying the regular fluctuations in Indonesia’s Financial Account (page 7)
• The rise and fall of the international crude palm oil price has had a dramatic impact on export duties (page 15)

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December 2009 Indonesia Economic Quarterly

Articles:

• Some recent developments in Indonesia’s Economy (page 21)
• Indonesia’s trade flows through the global crisis: from peak to trough and back again (page 21)
• The rupiah since late 2008: the scale of its movement and the driving factors (page 23)

Boxes:

• The economy’s slowdown in late 2008 and 2009 has had a disproportionate impact on VAT revenues (page 20)

September 2009 Indonesia Economic Quarterly

Articles:

• Looking ahead – a gradual recovery (page 18)

Boxes:

• Seasonal adjustment and enhanced economic monitoring (page 3)
• The government’s proposed 2010 budget (page 26)
• Estimating the impact of El Nino on poverty (page 28)

June 2009 Indonesia Economic Quarterly

Articles:

• The Impact of the Global Crisis on Indonesia: Looking Ahead (page 23)

Boxes:

• The government’s stimulus package (page 29)
• Classifying expenditure types – what the terms mean (page 31)
• A primer on trade finance (page 33)

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