Latest Update – October 21, 2024
Domestic food price inflation remains high in many low- and middle-income countries. Inflation higher than 5% is experienced in 76.2% of low-income countries (1.1 percentage points lower since the last update on September 26, 2024), 51.1% of lower-middle-income countries (3.2 percentage points lower), 38% of upper-middle-income countries (6.0 percentage points lower), and 8.9% of high-income countries (1.8 percentage points lower). In real terms, food price inflation exceeded overall inflation in 58.9% of the 168 countries where data is available.
Download the latest brief on rising food insecurity and World Bank responses
Since the last update on September 26, 2024, the agricultural and cereal price indices closed 1 and 2 percent lower, respectively; the export price index closed at the same level. Maize and rice prices closed 3 and 4 percent lower, respectively, while wheat closed at the same level. On a year-on-year basis, maize prices are 14% lower and rice prices 7% lower; wheat prices are 4% higher. Maize prices are 4% higher than in January 2020, wheat prices 3% higher, and rice prices 36% higher. (See “pink sheet” data for agricultural commodity and food commodity prices indices, updated monthly.)
By 2050, the global population will be 10 billion people, requiring a 60% increase in food production amid accelerating climate change. The food sector, responsible for 30% of greenhouse gases, must transform rapidly to meet this demand sustainably. Smallholder farmers will play a crucial role, but they face a large financing gap, leading to challenges such as limited access to technology and knowledge. Adequately equipped, farmers will drive this transition, presenting a unique opportunity to create jobs along the value chain and support a thriving economy. The World Bank Group Annual Meetings public event on October 23 will lay out the immense yet untapped economic and development potential of the food sector.
A World Bank blog highlights that governments currently allocate approximately $650 billion annually to maintain a food system that contributes to degrading the environment and affecting public health. A potential solution lies in repurposing agricultural support. By redirecting just 10% of the most harmful subsidies toward sustainable innovations, countries could generate an additional $2.4 trillion, reduce food prices by 18%, cut sector emissions by 40%, and restore more than 2% of farmland to natural habitats by 2040. Such changes could particularly benefit smallholder farmers, who produce most of the world's food but often face the greatest challenges from climate change and market volatility.
The Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) Market Monitor for October 2024 indicated that global temperatures reached record highs for the 15th consecutive month in August. As a result of these weather-influenced market dynamics, export prices for wheat, maize, and soybeans rose in September, although they remained lower than in September 2023. The Market Monitor also reported that fertilizer markets are generally well-supplied, and rice prices are softening following India's export policy changes.
According to the most recent Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Global Weather Hazards Summary, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral conditions prevail, with a La Niña event likely to emerge between September and November. This situation raises the risk of flooding in various regions, including the Sahel, Yemen, and parts of Central America, which poses a significant threat to food security.
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, trade-related policies imposed by countries have surged. The global food crisis has been partially made worse by the growing number of food and fertilizer trade restrictions put in place by countries with a goal of increasing domestic supply and reducing prices. As of October 2024, 16 countries have implemented 21 food export bans, and 8 have implemented 15 export-limiting measures.
World Bank Action
Our food and nutrition security portfolio now spans across 90 countries. It includes both short term interventions such as expanding social protection, also longer-term resilience such as boosting productivity and climate-smart agriculture. The Bank's intervention is expected to benefit 296 million people. Some examples include:
- In Honduras, the Rural Competitiveness Project series (COMRURAL II and III) aims to generate entrepreneurship and employment opportunities while promoting a climate-conscious, nutrition-smart strategy in agri-food value chains. To date, the program is benefiting around 6,287 rural small-scale producers (of which 33% are women, 15% youth, and 11% indigenous) of coffee, vegetables, dairy, honey, and other commodities through enhanced market connections and adoption of improved agricultural technologies and has created 6,678 new jobs.
- In Honduras, the Corredor Seco Food Security Project (PROSASUR) strives to enhance food security for impoverished and vulnerable rural households in the country’s Dry Corridor. This project has supported 12,202 extremely vulnerable families through nutrition-smart agricultural subprojects, food security plans, community nutrition plans, and nutrition and hygiene education. Within the beneficiary population, 70% of children under the age of five and their mothers now have a dietary diversity score of at least 4 (i.e., consume at least four food groups).
- The $2.75 billion Food Systems Resilience Program for Eastern and Southern Africa, helps countries in Eastern and Southern Africa increase the resilience of the region’s food systems and ability to tackle growing food insecurity. Now in phase three, the program will enhance inter-agency food crisis response also boost medium- and long-term efforts for resilient agricultural production, sustainable development of natural resources, expanded market access, and a greater focus on food systems resilience in policymaking.
- A $95 million credit from IDA for the Malawi Agriculture Commercialization Project (AGCOM) to increase commercialization of select agriculture value chain products and to provide immediate and effective response to an eligible crisis or emergency.
- The $200 million IDA grant for Madagascar to strengthen decentralized service delivery, upgrade water supply, restore and protect landscapes, and strengthen the resilience of food and livelihood systems in the drought-prone ‘Grand Sud’.
- A $60 million credit for the Integrated Community Development Project that works with refugees and host communities in four northern provinces of Burundi to improve food and nutrition security, build socio-economic infrastructure, and support micro-enterprise development through a participatory approach.
- The $175 million Sahel Irrigation Initiative Regional Support Project is helping build resilience and boost productivity of agricultural and pastoral activities in Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, and Senegal. More than 130,000 farmers and members of pastoral communities are benefiting from small and medium-sized irrigation initiatives. The project is building a portfolio of bankable irrigation investment projects of around 68,000 ha, particularly in medium and large-scale irrigation in the Sahel region.
- Through the $50 million Emergency Food Security Response project, 329,000 smallholder farmers in Central Africa Republic have received seeds, farming tools and training in agricultural and post-harvest techniques to boost crop production and become more resilient to climate and conflict risks.
- The $15 million Guinea Bissau Emergency Food Security Project is helping increase agriculture production and access to food to vulnerable families. Over 72,000 farmers have received drought-resistant and high-yielding seeds, fertilizers, agricultural equipment; and livestock vaccines for the country-wide vaccination program. In addition, 8,000 vulnerable households have received cash transfer to purchase food and tackle food insecurity.
- The $60 million Accelerating the Impact of CGIAR Research for Africa (AICCRA) project has reached nearly 3 million African farmers (39% women) with critical climate smart agriculture tools and information services in partnership with the Consortium of International Agricultural Research Centers (CGIAR). These tools and services are helping farmers to increase production and build resilience in the face of climate crisis. In Mali, studies showed that farmers using recommendations from the AICCRA-supported RiceAdvice had on average 0.9 ton per hectare higher yield and US$320 per hectare higher income.
- The $766 million West Africa Food Systems Resilience Program is working to increase preparedness against food insecurity and improve the resilience of food systems in West Africa. The program is increasing digital advisory services for agriculture and food crisis prevention and management, boosting adaption capacity of agriculture system actors, and investing in regional food market integration and trade to increase food security. An additional $345 million is currently under preparation for Senegal, Sierra Leone and Togo.
- A $150 million grant for the second phase of the Yemen Food Security Response and Resilience Project, which will help address food insecurity, strengthen resilience and protect livelihoods.
- $50 million grant of additional financing for Tajikistan to mitigate food and nutrition insecurity impacts on households and enhance the overall resilience of the agriculture sector.
- A $125 million project in Jordan aims to strengthen the development the agriculture sector by enhancing its climate resilience, increasing competitiveness and inclusion, and ensuring medium- to long-term food security.
- A $300 million project in Bolivia that will contribute to increasing food security, market access and the adoption of climate-smart agricultural practices.
- A $315 million loan to support Chad, Ghana and Sierra Leone to increase their preparedness against food insecurity and to improve the resilience of their food systems.
- A $500 million Emergency Food Security and Resilience Support Project to bolster Egypt's efforts to ensure that poor and vulnerable households have uninterrupted access to bread, help strengthen the country's resilience to food crises, and support to reforms that will help improve nutritional outcomes.
- A $130 million loan for Tunisia, seeking to lessen the impact of the Ukraine war by financing vital soft wheat imports and providing emergency support to cover barley imports for dairy production and seeds for smallholder farmers for the upcoming planting season.
In May 2022, the World Bank Group and the G7 Presidency co-convened the Global Alliance for Food Security, which aims to catalyze an immediate and concerted response to the unfolding global hunger crisis. The Alliance has developed the publicly accessible Global Food and Nutrition Security Dashboard, which provides timely information for global and local decision-makers to help improve coordination of the policy and financial response to the food crisis.
The heads of the FAO, IMF, World Bank Group, WFP, and WTO released a Third Joint Statement on February 8, 2023. The statement calls to prevent a worsening of the food and nutrition security crisis, further urgent actions are required to (i) rescue hunger hotspots, (ii) facilitate trade, improve the functioning of markets, and enhance the role of the private sector, and (iii) reform and repurpose harmful subsidies with careful targeting and efficiency. Countries should balance short-term urgent interventions with longer-term resilience efforts as they respond to the crisis.
Last Updated: Oct 21, 2024
