DUSHANBE, November 7, 2024 – Climate action offers Tajikistan an opportunity to rejuvenate its economy and create jobs while protecting its people from the growing risks of extreme weather events induced by climate change, says the World Bank Group’s Tajikistan Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR), released today.
While the government of Tajikistan has set out an agenda to transform the country’s economy through a green transition, the report finds that it can go further to ensure a resilient development path. A complementary reform program is needed to bring significant economic benefits for the country and the broader region, adaptation to climate change, and decarbonization of the Central Asia electricity systems.
“Tajikistan is in urgent need of an economic reset that can help address its many development challenges as well as significant and increasing impacts of climate change that are threatening future progress,” said Ozan Sevimli, World Bank Group Country Manager for Tajikistan. “The CCDR provides an actionable pathway to accelerate the transition to a green economy and catalyze long-term growth prospects.”
Mobilizing private finance, to complement limited public resources, will be key to the success of the green transition to achieve water, food, and energy security; low-carbon development that could boost exports and create jobs; and protect the vulnerable through effective climate strategies.
“Although Tajikistan ranks 130th in global greenhouse gas emissions with a minimal contribution, it is recognized as one of the world’s most vulnerable countries to climate change. The CCDR offers recommendations for the Government of Tajikistan on enhancing production efficiency, promoting innovative technologies, and creating 'green' jobs, all while reducing the country’s vulnerability to climate change impacts”, noted Bahodur Sheralizoda, Chair of the Environmental Protection Committee under the Government of Tajikistan.
The cost of inaction is high. The country is already at high risk of floods, earthquakes, and landslides. Climate change-related damages to infrastructure, livestock productivity, and agriculture could reduce real GDP by 5-6% by 2050. Climate-induced impacts in the strategic Vakhsh River Basin, where 90% of
the country’s electricity is generated, epitomize the climate and development challenges of Tajikistan. The annual average costs of land degradation in Tajikistan are estimated at nearly $325 million, a cost that is only expected to rise. In addition, air pollution is rife, accounting for 84 deaths per 100,000, which is the second highest in Central Asia.
The pursuit of a green and resilient development hinges on implementing a broad spectrum of structural reforms to lay the foundation for general economic development. In particular, Tajikistan should focus on opening up its economy to better attract private investment and improve public service delivery, including through better governance in state-owned enterprises. In addition, strengthening the education, health care, and social protection systems is vital for human capital development and equipping the workforce with the needed skills.
There are considerable benefits to be reaped from a green transition. Reductions in health care costs from reduced air pollution, road accidents, and road damage are estimated to exceed US$3.5 billion by
2050. Investment in renewable energy (hydro, solar, and geothermal) and energy efficiency have the potential to generate new employment opportunities.
Key recommendations of the report include:
- Stronger institutions and regulatory framework for better adaptation, resilience, and mitigation to build capacity of key institutions and business environment for planning and implementation of climate actions with price incentives for mobilizing climate finance.
- Just and inclusive climate strategies: To ensure people and communities are at the heart of the green transition, there will be a need for labor market programs to reskill adults and match them with jobs in green sectors. A focus on strengthening social assistance programs will also be needed to better support vulnerable households affected by climatic and economic shocks (such as carbon pricing and subsidies reforms).
- Adaptation at the water-energy-food nexus, resilient landscapes, connectivity, and lower climate vulnerability. This will entail modernization of the irrigation infrastructure to conserve water and improve agricultural productivity, upgrading of water transport and storage infrastructure to improve water supply, and restoration of degraded lands with nature-based solutions.
- Accelerating low-carbon development to boost economic growth, energy security, exports, and jobs while improving air quality. This would involve the development of new hydropower and solar energy, sustainable heating and transport, enhanced energy efficiency, and adoption of low- carbon technologies and climate-smart agricultural practices.
Significant investments will be needed for the climate mitigation and adaptation agenda. It is estimated that Tajikistan would require around $17 billion on top of the investments for the ambitious reform agenda of the government with investment needs of $79 billion during 2025–2050. A large share of investments could come from the private sector, particularly in the energy, industry and agriculture sectors, but improvements to the business regulatory environment, opening up the economy and leveling the playing field for better competition are required to unlock private capital.
Financial requirements for transformational development far exceed Tajikistan’s domestic financing capacity. To supplement domestic efforts, Tajikistan needs substantial technical and financial support from external sources, including grants and concessional loans from international financial organizations, global climate funds, and other development partners.
Download the Tajikistan Country Climate and Development Report here.
The World Bank Group’s Country Climate and Development Reports (CCDRs) are core diagnostic reports that explore the interlinkages between climate change and development. They help countries prioritize the most impactful actions that can foster a low carbon transition and boost resilience, while delivering on broader development goals. CCDRs build on data and rigorous research and identify main pathways to reduce GHG emissions, their externalities and climate vulnerabilities, including the costs and challenges as well as benefits and opportunities from doing so. The reports suggest concrete, priority actions to support the transition. As public documents, CCDRs aim to inform governments, citizens, the private sector, development partners and all stakeholders engaged with the development and climate agenda. CCDRs feed into other core Bank Group diagnostics, country engagements and operations, and help attract funding and direct financing for high-impact climate action.
