According to the “Poverty, Shared Prosperity and Equity Update” report, poverty continues to be widespread in Guinea-Bissau. Between 2018 and 2021, it has increased by 2.8 percentage points, which is equivalent to over 80,000 additional poor.
Data from the 2018/19 and 2021/22 Harmonized Household Living Conditions Surveys (EHCVM) showed that poverty increased from 47.7% in 2018, to 50.5% in 2021. Trends in poverty between 2018 and 2021 have largely gone in the same direction in urban and rural areas but remain higher in rural areas. In rural areas more than half of the population of the country are poor.
In the capital city Bissau, poverty remained relatively unchanged at 21%; but in other urban areas, poverty increased between 2018 and 2021 and reached 42%. Not only is poverty more of a rural phenomenon in Guinea-Bissau, but the rural poor are also furthest away from the poverty line compared to their counterparts in urban areas.
Climate risks and global shocks impact the economy
Guinea-Bissau experienced volatile economic growth over the past decade. Economic growth rebounded in 2021 before slowing down in 2022. Real GDP per capita growth reached 6.4% in 2021 up from 1.5% in 2020; before slowing down to 3.5% in 2022 and is expected to have further slowed down to 2.8% in 2023.
The economy continues to be structurally vulnerable to terms-of-trade shocks and climatic risks. Recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic has been constrained by additional shocks, notably spillover effects of the war on Ukraine resulting in disruptions in global supply chains and rising food prices. Additionally, cashew nuts, which account for 90% of merchandise exports and a major source of income for over 70% of households, have been experiencing declining prices and volatile international demand since 2018.
Poverty and regional disparities in Guinea-Bissau
Regional disparities in poverty trends persist with the highest incidence of poverty observed in the regions of Oio, Gabu and Quinara. The region of Oio continues to record the highest incidence of poverty with 72% of the population being poor in 2021 - about 8.3 percentage point increase from its 2018 levels (see Figure 1).
The largest increase in poverty between 2018 and 2021 was recorded in the regions of Gabu and Biombo where poverty increased by 14 and 12.3 percentage points during the period (Figure 1) - resulting in Gabu becoming the region with the second highest incidence of poverty as of 2021.
Despite overall increases in poverty, the regions of Cacheu, Bolama/Bijagos, and Bafata experienced reductions of 7.5, 5.6 and 2.3 percentage points respectively in the incidence poverty over the period.
The lowest incidence of poverty is reported in the Bissau region where 21% of the population are poor – relatively the same rate in 2018.
Figure 1: Changes in monetary poverty indicators 2018/19 - 2021/22
More than half of the poor – 55 % - are concentrated in the regions of Oio, Gabu and Bafata. In addition to having a high incidence of poverty, the regions of Oio and Gabu are home to 23.7 and 17.1 % of the poor people in Guinea-Bissau respectively (Map 1a and 1b). Both regions recorded additional over 30,000 poor persons each in 2021.
Furthermore, the region of Bafata has the third highest share of the poor population (14.6 %) despite a 2.3 percentage point decline in poverty during the period. Similarly, Bissau which has a low incidence of poverty, has a slightly higher share of the poor -11.5 % of the poor. In contrast, the decline in poverty in the regions of Cacheu and Bolama/Bijagos resulted in over 10,000 and 1,000 fewer poor persons respectively.
Map 1: Poverty Indicators by Region (EHCVM 2021)
While all households suffered reductions in per capita consumption between 2018 and 2021, the richest households experienced the largest reduction, leading to a reduction in inequality. Annualized growth in consumption per capita declined by 2.5 % on average for the population.
However, the poorest households (bottom 40 % of the distribution) experienced a slightly lower decline of 1.5 % per year. The richest households, on the other hand, experienced much steeper decline – for instance, the richest 10 % of households experienced a decline of up to 20 % during the same period. As a result, Guinea-Bissau recorded a slight decline in consumption inequality. This is likely driven by more steady growth in the agricultural sector over the years.
Read and download the “Poverty, Shared Prosperity, and Equity Update” report, here.