Regional output in the Middle East and North Africa contracted 3.8 percent in 2020, due to the pandemic and the collapse in oil prices. It is expected to rebound by 2.2 percent in 2021, on the back of a global recovery and higher oil prices. But by the end of 2021, GDP losses are expected to be equivalent to more than $220 billion dollars, or 7.2 percent of 2019 levels. The region is expected to recover only partially in 2021, depending, in part, on a widespread rollout of COVID-19 vaccines.
The pandemic has exacerbated the region’s long-standing development challenges, including high unemployment and underemployment among youth and women, weak trust in government, and poor returns on human capital investments. Poverty levels have risen across the region, while governments face deteriorating public finances and growing debt vulnerabilities. The challenges are especially acute in conflict-affected countries. Meanwhile, climate vulnerabilities continue to grow, intensifying threats to the region’s long-term development.
World Bank assistance
The World Bank approved $4.6 billion in lending to the region for 23 operations in fiscal 2021, including $4.0 billion in IBRD commitments and $658 million in IDA commitments. Another $114 million were provided for projects supporting the West Bank and Gaza. We delivered 134 Advisory Services and Analytics products, and revenue from Reimbursable Advisory Services (RAS) agreements reached $30 million. The consolidated advisory program continues to provide ongoing support to the reform process in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries.
Our work with countries has several aims: to boost human capital by modernizing education, health, and social protection systems; to restore trust by strengthening governance and transparency; to create jobs by promoting competitive markets and private sector–led growth; to advance gender equity by bringing more women into the economy; to address fragility by supporting reconstruction and targeting the root causes of conflict; and to enable green growth by combating climate change and environmental degradation while preparing for energy transitions.
Protecting human capital amid the COVID-19 pandemic
Throughout the region, the Bank is helping countries respond to needs arising from COVID-19 while also supporting efforts to improve human capital. Our financing is helping address the learning crisis, reform education for better skills, strengthen health systems and public health capacity, and modernize social protection. We supported cash transfer projects in several countries to help mitigate the impacts of COVID-19 and build more resilient and adaptive safety net systems that can cope with future crises and address high levels of labor informality. Under the restructured Lebanon Health Resilience Project, we provided $40 million to help the country procure ventilators, intensive care unit beds, and other critical equipment; a further $18 million was reallocated to support deployment of COVID-19 vaccines. Through $15 million in additional financing to the Djibouti Integrated Cash Transfers Project, we are helping the country strengthen its social safety net system, expand access to basic services, and improve food security. In Jordan, we committed $20 million to prevent, detect, and respond to COVID-19 and strengthen the national health system. A separate project is providing cash support to poor and vulnerable households in Jordan that are affected by the pandemic.
In Yemen, the Bank committed $204 million to strengthen national institutions, provide cash transfers, create temporary employment opportunities, and increase access to basic services for those affected by COVID-19 and other shocks. To address ongoing challenges to education, we partnered with UNICEF and the World Food Programme through the $100 million Restoring Education and Learning Emergency Project to support teachers, facilitate school feeding programs, improve school infrastructure, and distribute learning materials and school supplies. We also partnered with the World Food Programme on the Food Security Response and Resilience Project, which will provide cash-for-work opportunities and nutritious food for vulnerable households. It will also help restore agricultural production, strengthen the value chain, and increase the sales of crops, livestock, and fish products—helping build longer-term resilience in Yemen.
Following the explosion at the port of Beirut in August 2020, we launched a rapid damage and needs assessment in partnership with the EU and the UN. The assessment underpinned efforts to support recovery, address people’s basic needs, implement reforms, and rebuild critical assets, services, and infrastructure. In Saudi Arabia, our RAS is enabling historic reforms for women’s empowerment, while in the United Arab Emirates, our advisory services helped introduce paid parental leave in the private sector—a first in the region—and amend the labor law to mandate equal pay.
Strengthening governance and transparency
Across the region, perceptions of corruption and a lack of transparency undermine the effectiveness of crisis response efforts, thereby deepening economic impacts, undermining people’s trust in government, and threatening social cohesion. This is further compounded by limited or unreliable data and statistics. The Bank is working with countries to strengthen local governments’ capacity to deliver services and engage with citizens, thus helping renew the social contract. In Jordan, a new $500 million Program-for-Results aims to strengthen public and private investment and help the country capitalize on emerging opportunities for recovery, including in green growth, tourism development, and female labor force participation. By developing better systems for citizen feedback, the program will also help Jordan strengthen its accountability mechanisms to effectively implement new policies and promote investments.
Creating jobs by promoting competitive markets and private sector–led growth
The COVID-19 crisis has sharply reduced economic output in a region that was already struggling to create enough jobs for its young workforce. Lower demand, suspension of non-essential activities, financial constraints, facility closures, and supply chain interruptions have all disrupted key sectors. But there are also opportunities in emerging fields, such as digital service delivery, although these require investments in infrastructure, skills, and capacity. In Jordan, the $163 million Youth, Technology, and Jobs Project is helping poor and vulnerable youth—including both Jordanians and Syrians—find opportunities in the digital economy by improving market-relevant skills, providing access to finance for high-growth companies, and creating jobs. Similarly, a $15 million project in the West Bank and Gaza is helping create more highly skilled jobs at local IT firms.
Gender equality: bringing more women into the economy
The region has the world’s lowest female labor force participation, as women cope with fewer opportunities, limited voice and agency, legal restrictions, and financial exclusion. The COVID-19 crisis has exacerbated these challenges, as women are burdened with greater care and household responsibilities and face higher rates of unemployment.
We work with countries to reduce these barriers. In Morocco, a $275 million operation is addressing women’s career constraints in the national civil protection system by promoting fairer hiring and promotion processes. Through our regional Gender Innovation Lab, we are also conducting impact evaluations to find ways to expand economic opportunities for women. And in Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon, the Mashreq Gender Facility is helping strengthen women’s economic participation.
Addressing fragility, conflict, and violence
Across the region, social and economic exclusion continue to be key drivers of conflict and instability. Costly and protracted civil wars have created a large number of refugees and internally displaced persons, while high levels of inequality between urban and rural areas have exacerbated these challenges. Under the regional action plan for fragility, conflict, and violence (FCV), we are supporting the Bank Group’s broader efforts to address the drivers of fragility and conflict and strengthen resilience, especially for the most vulnerable and marginalized people. Meanwhile, our regional Gender-Based Violence Action Plan and the Mashreq Displacement Framework are helping promote social inclusion and support for refugees and displaced persons.
In Lebanon, the $246 million Emergency Cash Transfer COVID-19 Response Project aims to provide cash transfers to the country’s poorest and most vulnerable people, while expanding their access to social services. In Yemen, we are partnering with UN agencies to expand access to critical services—including water, sanitation, transport, and energy—while also boosting women and children’s health and nutrition. And in Jordan and Lebanon, the Global Concessional Financing Facility has mobilized $520 million through June 2021 to support Syrian refugees and host communities.
In Iraq, the $750 million Emergency Operation Development Project has rebuilt three vital bridges across the Tigris River to help bring economic life back to Mosul. The project has also rehabilitated more than 400 kilometers of roads and 25 other bridges throughout Iraq. Reconstruction will begin on two other key bridges, including a major crossing between Mosul and Duhok that is important for trade. Despite challenges on the ground, we continue to help the government engage citizens through technology, flexible project design, and innovations in implementation.
Further Information: Middle East and North Africa Region Homepage >
Regional Commitments and Disbusements for Fiscal 2019–21
| COMMITMENTS ($ MILLIONS) | DISBURSEMENTS ($ MILLIONS) |
| FY19 | FY20 | FY21 | FY19 | FY20 | FY21 |
IBRD | 4,872 | 3,419 | 3,976 | 4,790 | 2,415 | 2,764 |
IDA | 611 | 203 | 658 | 647 | 151 | 379 |
Portfolio of operations under implementation as of June 30, 2021: $22.1 billion. |
SPOTLIGHT: Supporting countries as they move toward a green, resilient, and inclusive recovery
The World Bank is supporting the region’s countries as they emerge from the COVID-19 crisis and move toward a green, resilient, and inclusive recovery. Efforts focus on reducing emissions, boosting resilience in key sectors, transitioning to more sustainable modes of transport and mobility, and diversifying energy sources.
In Morocco, we analyzed ways to strengthen resilience and inclusion in recovery efforts. This informed the $250 million Morocco Green Generation Program-for-Results, which aims to increase job opportunities and generate income for youth in rural areas, as well as improve the efficiency, climate resilience, and environmental sustainability of the agrifood value chain. The program will work to expand the use of digital technologies in agriculture and promote climate-smart practices, as well as strengthen monitoring and evaluation capacity, to help put Morocco on the path to green growth.
In Egypt, we are helping the government with sound and effective deployment of electric mobility: we assessed the state of “e-mobility” in the country and identified areas for interventions. Insights from our analysis underpin the $200 million Greater Cairo Air Pollution Management and Climate Change Project, which aims to reduce emissions from critical sectors in Cairo and surrounding areas. It focuses on lowering vehicle emissions, improving solid waste management, and developing a robust climate impact mitigation program. Efforts include electric buses that are being deployed and operated by the Cairo Transport Authority. Our advice is also helping the government build capacity to measure the value of emissions and waste as well as assess their impact on the economy.
In the West Bank and Gaza, the energy sector program exemplifies of how we apply the multiphase programmatic approach in a fragile context. It aligns with the Bank Group’s Assistance Strategy for the West Bank and Gaza and with the Palestinian Energy and Natural Resources Authority’s National Energy Strategy. The program aims to help the authority diversify energy sources, with a focus on renewables, while boosting financial and operational sustainability. It will also encourage private sector participation and increase the share of renewable energy and imports from neighboring countries.
Regional Snapshot
INDICATOR | 2000 | 2010 | CURRENT DATAa |
Total population (millions) | 279 | 333 | 396 |
Population growth (annual %) | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.7 |
GNI per capita (Atlas method, current US$) | 1,596 | 3,996 | 3,163 |
GDP per capita growth (annual %) | 4.4 | 3.4 | -5.3 |
Population living below $1.90 a day (millions) | 10 | 7 | 27 |
Life expectancy at birth, females (years) | 71 | 74 | 76 |
Life expectancy at birth, males (years) | 68 | 70 | 72 |
Carbon dioxide emissions (megatons) | 792 | 1,253 | 1,471 |
Extreme poverty (% of population below $1.90 a day, 2011 PPP) | 3.5 | 2 | 7 |
Debt services as a proportion of exports of goods and services | 13 | 6 | 11 |
Ratio of female to male labor force participation rate (%) (modeled ILO estimate) | 24 | 26 | 25 |
Vulnerable employment, total (% of total employment) (modeled ILO estimate) | 36 | 33 | 31 |
Under-5 mortality rate per 1,000 live births | 45 | 29 | 24 |
Primary completion rate (% of relevant age group) | 81 | 89 | 92 |
Individuals using the internet (% of population) | 1 | 21 | 60 |
Access to electricity (% of population) | 90 | 95 | 97 |
Renewable energy consumption (% of total final energy consumption) | 3 | 3 | 3 |
People using at least basic sanitation services (% of population) | 82 | 86 | 89 |
People using at least basic drinking water services (% of population) | 86 | 91 | 93 |
Note: ILO = International Labour Organization; PPP = purchasing power parity. a. The most current data available between 2015 and 2020; visit http://data.worldbank.org for data updates.
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