Trade and Climate Change

Trade and Climate Change Webinar Series

The expansion of global trade is increasingly recognized as playing an important role in climate change. While attention is focused on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, trade will also play a key role in how countries adapt to higher average temperatures and more extreme weather events. However, it is also important to understand how trade may be affected by climate change. Average temperatures are rising, and extreme weather events are increasing. This will have implications for production and trade in all countries.

In this series of webinars, World Bank researchers and external panellists discuss new research and analysis on trade and climate change and the emerging policies and strategies that governments and firms are developing in response, especially on the implications for low-income countries. 

Webinar 12: Trade and Food Security in a Climate Change-impacted World

October 7, 2022

• Mona Haddad, Global Director for Trade, Investment and Competitiveness, World Bank
• Maria Dimitriadou, Special Representative to the UN and WTO, Head of the World Bank Geneva Office
• Paul Brenton, Lead Economist, Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice, World Bank
• Vicky Chemutai, Economist (YPP), Trade and Regional Integration, World Bank Group
• Edwini Kessie, Director, Agricutlure and Commodities Division, World Trade Organization
• Carolyn Deere Birkbeck, Senior Researcher, Graduate Institute’s Global Governance Centre and Director of the Forum on Trade, Environment & the SDGs (TESS)
• Grace Mijiga Mhango, Chairperson, Grain Traders Association of Malawi

Session Highlights:

• A 1% increase in temperature lowers agricultural exports of developing countries by almost 13%, and particularly poorer countries are facing higher climate risks.
• Climate change will alter comparative advantage of countries in crop farming and exports. Overall, the world is likely to face a 13% decline in yield of all crops.
• Although more land is allocated to agriculture, crop yields in many developing countries are still low. And yet, emissions from agricultural land-use change have increased, mainly driven by large scale commercial agricultural expansion.
• Agricultural products are the most GHG emission intensive export sectors, and food products account for around 14% of total GHG emissions from exports. Methane is a major contributor to GHG emission intensity in agriculture.
• International trade will have to play a larger role in addressing food security in climate change, channeling for getting food from area of excess to areas of scarcity, and allowing farmers better access to new technologies, seeds and fertilizers.
• Tariff reforms with domestic support towards investment in productivity enhancing and emission reducing technologies can address environmental challenges,  increase productivity and alleviate poverty.
   

Webinar 11: Greening logistics: what are the top players doing to transform the industry?

July 18, 2022

• William Gain, Global Product Specialist for Trade Facilitation & Border Management, World Bank Group
• Vicky Chemutai, Economist (YPP), Trade and Regional Integration, World Bank Group
• Erik Churchill, Vice President of Public Affairs at UPS International
• Mao Lingke, General Manager of Cainiao Global Supply Chain-Global Freight Department at Alibaba Cainiao
• Ana Yaluff, Head of Sustainability (EMEA) at Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM)
• Tejo Kusuma, Technical Officer at World Customs Organization (WCO)

Session Highlights:

• Logistic companies can contribute to reduction in GHG emissions by developing innovative solutions such as e-packaging cars or e-bike and using sustainable aviation fuels. To roll out business model for green logistics requires regulatory coordination among different jurisdictions.
• Innovative digital solutions for green logistics – recycling, shipping, delivery, packaging, and warehousing – can contribute to green and efficient trade. Smart packing algorithm helps save packaging materials by recycling and reusing them while installation of solar panels on the warehousing roof can reduce carbon emissions from fossil fuels.
• Greenhouse gas emissions in transportation and distribution can be reduced by contracting shipping freights certified for decarbonization initiative and harmonizing carbon methodology, which requires collective actions for supply chains to success.
• As a part of green customs initiatives, border modernization and digitalization can make international trade efficient and green. Standardization of dataset enables information to be re-used in supply chains and customs, and encourages government agencies in different countries to conduct digitalized collaboration. 

Webinar 10: How to unleash trade and scale-wide adoption of environmental goods and services in developing countries

June 7, 2022

• Richard Damania, Chief Economist of the Sustainable Development Practice Group, World Bank
• Juneyoung Lee, Legal Affairs Officer – Trade and Environment Division, World Trade Organization (WTO)
• Aleksandar Stojanov, Trade Policy Expert, World Bank
• Peter BenHur Nyeko, Co-Founder & Director - Mandulis Energy
• John Gibson, Director – Chobe Holdings Limited
• Simon Hess, Head of Monitoring and Evaluation – Enhanced Integrated Framework (EIF) Secretariat. WTO

Session Highlights:

• Access to environmental goods and services (ESG) plays a crucial role because it enabled them low carbon transition and boost competitiveness of domestic firms by giving them access to affordable environmental technologies.
• Converting agricultural wastes to cooking fuels and electricity contributes to creation of circular economy in Uganda. Electricity generated is sold to villages in rural areas, which can allow farmers to process their crops, to be plugged into green supply chains and to access local and global markets.
• Firms in tourism find that solar energy plants will resolve logistic complexity of transporting fuels and reduce harmful impacts on environment and land. To run solar plants requires resolutions for major constraints such as fluctuating costs, an insufficient pool of skilled labors, extreme conditions that requires AC facility, electricity availability and internet access for operation.  
• Many development plans include an environmental aspect with development objectives. Electronic waste policy in Rwanda and reducing waste in leather production in Chad and Niger are examples of development projects that integrate environmental objectives.

Webinar 9: The low carbon transition – how can LDCs demonstrate carbon competitiveness?

March 25, 2022

• Mona Haddad, Global Director, Trade, Investment and Competitiveness, World Bank Group (WBG)
• Aik Hoe Lim, Director, Trade and Environment Division, World Trade Organization (WTO)
• Dominique Coppens, Senior Managing Associate in the trade practice of Sidley Austin LLP
• Vicky Chemutai, Economist (YPP), Trade and Regional Integration, World Bank Group
• Rajesh Aggarwal, Chief, Trade Facilitation and Policy for Business, International Trade Centre (ITC)
• Erik Wijkstrom, Counsellor, Trade and Environment Division, WTO

Session Highlights:

• Most costs and risk of a transition to a low carbon economy would fall on developing countries. Products subject to carbon pricing are likely to be selected in favor of industrialized countries. Also, carbon prices set on products in which LDCs have carbon competitiveness.
• A lack of common standards and verification is the main challenge for LDCs. Also, the choice of methodology and limited data availability, and uncertainty about key variables can paint a misleading picture of the carbon footprint of LDCs exports.
• Standards for measurement and verification should be easily adoptable for developing countries to apply across the world. Aligning divergent methodologies calculating carbon emissions is going to contribute to net zero goal.
• SMEs seek to measure carbon footprints for their exports, driven by demand of customers and lead firms in upstream value chains. However, SMEs lack local experts certifying carbon footprints and appropriate technologies reducing carbon emissions, which requires investment in R&D in locally suitable and affordable technologies for SMEs.

Webinar 8: Trade in Tourism Services – Making it Sustainable and Resilient (in partnership with the Tourism for Development webinar series)
July 14, 2021

• Martha Martinez Licetti, Practice Manager, ETIMT, World Bank Group
• Stefan Gössling, Professor of Tourism Research at Linnaeus University and Human Ecology at Lund University
• Kimarli Fernando, Chairperson of Sri Lanka Tourism
• Megan Morikawa, Global Director of Sustainability Office at Iberostar Group

Session highlights: 

• Tourism is a key source of export revenues and jobs in many developing countries, but it is increasingly being affected by and contributing to climate change. Specifically, while the sector is highly vulnerable to climate change, it also contributes to the emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs)—for example, through its influence on the demand for air travel services. 
• Tourism’s vulnerability to climate change is highest in Africa, the Middle East, South Asia, and Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and typically in countries where tourism accounts for the largest share of GDP and in regions where tourism is expected to grow strongly. 
• Plans for decarbonization in global tourism requires substantive efforts – achieving a net zero carbon goal by 2050 will need a massive upscaling of technology and demand management.
• A destination model for the future to deliver high-value, low-carbon, resilient tourism will require aspects of i) reducing leakage ii) lowering carbon; and iii) adding value. Opportunities for developing economies include: 
  • Reducing energy use (20% at zero investment) – research shows that for most tourist accommodation, it is economically feasible to reduce energy use and utilize renewable energy.
  • Implementing environmental levies - all tourism stakeholders should support, and lobby for, low-carbon policies, including CO2 taxes (“environmental fees”).

Webinar 7: How can the global community catalyze and promote trade in environmental goods and services? 
July 13, 2021

• Aik Hoe Lim, Director, Environmental Division, World Trade Organization (WTO) 
• Paul Brenton, Lead Economist, Trade and Regional Integration, World Bank Group
• Ronald Steenblik, International Institute for Sustainable Development
• Kimberley Botwright, World Economic Forum
• Ana Laura Lizano, Permanent Mission of Costa Rica to the WTO
• Mahesh Sugathan, Senior Trade and Sustainability Expert

Session highlights:

• Access to environmental goods and services will be essential in the transition to a low-carbon global economy. 
• Noting that few countries, if any, alone have all the required resources, technology, and expertise to convert to a low-carbon economy, trade plays a vital role in the global diffusion of low-carbon technologies through environmental goods and services. 
• Trade will provide access to a wider range of lower-cost environmental goods and services. This will in turn create new business and job opportunities in areas that use these new technologies, as well as in their distribution and maintenance.
• Removing barriers to trade in the products that can support the move to a low-carbon future and facilitating the sharing of knowledge on how to implement the low-carbon transition is critical. The challenge for the global community is to facilitate these economic transformations in ways that support sustained growth and poverty reduction in developing countries.
• Trading in renewable energies such as wind and solar show a significant contribution to a country’s emission removal effort. Modelling estimates provide that if import tariff rates on products from carbon-intensive industries between all countries are increased by 30 percent whilst, import tariff rates on low-carbon products from high-tech industries between all countries are set to 0, then there will be a significant drop in emissions. 

Webinar 6: A three-way ‘perfect storm’: climate extremes; a pandemic; and, deglobalization
February 25, 2021

• Olivier Mahul, Practice Manager, Crisis and Disaster Risk Finance, World Bank
• Dabo Guan, Consultant, Trade and Regional Integration Unit, World Bank
• Alexei Kireyev, Senior Economist, International Monetary Fund (IMF)
• Andrew Burns, Global Lead Macroeconomic Modelling and Statistics, Macro and Debt, World Bank

Session highlights: 

• Regional or global cooperation is needed to address the spillover effects of compound events i.e. extreme weather events and pandemics. A widespread deglobalization reaction will drag down the global economy and then backfire at each individual country through the global supply chain. 
• Modelling results signal that an increase in the degree of export restrictions involving all sectors would cause a sharp rise in economic losses of all regions in the aftermath of an extreme weather event that is occurring in parallel to a pandemic.
• Policies in favor of trade barriers and production specialization are easily made when a country decides to protect its domestic industries and safeguard its stocks. However, this could undermine the efforts of other countries battling these disasters. 

Webinar 5: The effectiveness of environmental provisions in regional trade agreements – and implementation difficulties 
February 24, 2021

• Urvashi Narain, Lead Environmental Economist for East and Southern Africa region, World Bank
• Ryan Abman, Assistant Professor in the Department of Economics at San Diego State University
• Clark Lundberg, Research Agricultural Economist US Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service
• Michele Ruta, Lead Economist, Trade and Regional Integration, World Bank
• Prudence Sebahizi, Chief Technical Advisor on the African Continental Free Trade Area, African Union Commission 
• Allen Asiimwe, Chief Technical Officer, Trademark East Africa

Session highlights:

• Concerns over the adverse impacts of trade liberalization on environmental degradation have led to a debate over the need for environmental provisions in regional trade agreements (RTAs), however the effectiveness of such provisions is often unknown.
• New research shows that inclusion of specific provisions aimed at protecting forestry and/or biodiversity entirely offsets the net increases in forest loss observed in similar regional trade agreements without such provisions.  The inclusion of these provisions limits agricultural land expansion but not increases in total agricultural production.  
• These effects are concentrated in tropical, developing countries with greater biodiversity. However, these countries often face implementation difficulties and thus require substantive support towards execution.

Webinar 4: Sustainability and business carbon management schemes
February 23, 2021

• Shari Friedman - Ag Global Head, Climate Strategy and Business Development, IFC
• Michael Friis Jensen, Consultant, Trade and Regional Integration, World Bank
• Penny Naas, President, International Public Affairs and Sustainability, United Parcel Service, Inc (UPS), USA
• Steve Nicholls, Head of Environment, National Business Initiative (NBI), South Africa

Session highlights:

• Over the past two decades, the public has increasingly demanded that business takes more responsibility in managing environmental problems. Firms in turn have adopted more complex policies and codes of corporate social responsibility, including in environmental management. 
• The public is pushing global business on climate change too. Additionally, governments may use sustainability standards to reduce carbon emissions from particular products. The way such standards are formulated, and the verification mechanisms established to make sure producers follow them will determine market access, including for least developed countries. 
• Carbon measurement is often based on carbon-footprinting methodologies that have predominantly been developed by industrialized countries for use in industrialized country contexts – as such, this choice of methodology, coupled with limited data availability, and uncertainty about key variables can paint a misleading picture of the carbon footprint of developing country exports.
• Critical support is needed in developing the appropriate infrastructure for data collection. Carbon labelling is methodologically complex, often expensive, and difficult to understand for consumers. The data needed for such detailed carbon accounting are extensive. In principle, carbon footprinting requires measuring emissions at every point along every possible value chain. 

Webinar 3: Emerging emitters and global carbon mitigation efforts
December 17, 2020

• Caroline Freund, Global Director, Trade, Investment, and Competitiveness, World Bank
• Dabo Guan and Paul Brenton, Trade and Regional Integration, World Bank
• Grzegorz Peszko, Lead Economist, Environment and Natural Resources, World Bank
• Lourdes Sanchez, Senior Policy Advisor and Lead on Indonesia, International Institute for Sustainable Development

Session highlights: 

• It is often misunderstood that because they are not large emitters individually, least developed countries do not need to play a major role in negotiating rules on trade and environment.
• However, new research shows that collectively, developing countries have been increasingly carbonizing over the last decade in pursuit of their development goals. 
• As such, these countries need to be at the forefront of climate change adaptation and mitigation and this will require a rapid spread of low carbon technologies and related services to influence production and consumption.  
• This is especially critical as least developed countries (LDCs) will be more severely affected by the effects of climate change. As such, contributing to the rules governing trade and the environment, can help ensure that their interests are properly considered.

Webinar 2: The effects of trade and trade policies on land use change
December 16, 2020

• Holger A. Kray, Practice Manager, Agriculture and Food Security, World Bank
• Vicky Chemutai, Trade and Regional Integration, World Bank 
• Edwini Kessie, Director, Agriculture Division, World Trade Organization (WTO)
• Steven Stone, Chief UN Environment Programme (UNEP)

Session highlights:

• Trade-induced land use displacement can have positive effects—with global environment benefits i.e. leaving production to areas that use less carbon-intensive methods. 
• Trade measures can promote sustainable agricultural management by facilitating:
• Access to digital technologies from advanced economies and improved seed varieties
• Transfer of knowledge and expertise on improving yields
• Access to quality fertilizers that can boost farmer uptake—need for better regulation, but not trade-restrictive
• To minimize the adverse impacts of trade liberalization and to maximize its positive impacts for sustainable land management, two land degradation issues need to be addressed: expansion of agriculture for export and marginalization of smaller farmers
• Land-use change impacts are not constrained by borders and thus require regional solutions. Trade agreements need to use specific, legally binding language in all climate-related provisions for any change to occur.

Webinar 1: Carbon Border Taxes – EU plans and implications for low-income countries
December 15, 2020

• Richard Damania, Chief Economist, Sustainable Development, World Bank
• Michael Friis Jensen, Trade and Regional Integration, World Bank
• Vicente Hurtado Roa, Head of Unit, European Commission, Directorate-General for Taxation and Customs Union
• Georg Zachmann, Senior Fellow, Bruegel

Session highlights:

• A number of countries have been considering schemes to reduce carbon emissions from their domestic production and how to deal with possible ‘leakage’ to countries with weaker regimes. 
• Carbon border adjustment, which adds a tax to imports corresponding to the price of carbon emissions that domestic firms pay, is increasingly being seen as the solution to the problem of carbon leakage. This adjustment is designed to nullify the cost advantage that firms producing in non-regulated countries enjoy when selling in a regulated country. 
• Early simulations (in advance of the July 2021 announcement) of the potential economy-wide impacts of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) suggested that, countries with the most emission-intensive sectors and fossil fuel exporters would bear the brunt of the scheme. 
• It remains important to understand how developing countries, and their trade, will be affected by the standards and approaches being considered in the design of similar schemes. In general, it is imperative to ensure that these designs are not too narrowly focused.
• With these heavy impacts on carbon-intensive sectors, new opportunities could arise in trade of low carbon goods and services. Seizing these opportunities should be country priorities.

For more information on the Trade and Climate Change research agenda and materials presented at the webinars, please contact Paul Brenton and Vicky Chemutai. For any queries and suggestions on the webinars, please contact Victoria L. Fofanah.