Fragility, Conflict & Violence

Fragility, conflict, and violence (FCV) present a critical development challenge that threatens efforts to end extreme poverty in both low- and middle-income countries. By 2030, nearly 60% of the world’s extreme poor will live in countries affected by FCV. 

Violent conflict has spiked dramatically since 2010 in several regions, and the fragility landscape is becoming more complex. Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, the world has seen a series of massive setbacks to stability in regions across the world: from Asia and Africa to Latin America and the Caribbean, and more recently in Eastern Europe and the MENA region. 

These latest developments add on to a multitude of risks affecting FCV settings, which include food insecurity, climate change, and debt distress.

• World Bank estimates show that a total of 324 million extremely poor people reside in 33 countries classified as fragile and conflict affected.
• Severe food insecurity, which is estimated to affect over 956 million people by 2028, is twice as prevalent in FCV-affected countries. Conflict is the biggest driver of hunger, with 70% of the world's hungry people living in areas afflicted by war and violence.
• In fragile and conflict-affected areas, average per-capita incomes are expected to decline by 2024.
• Fragility is intertwined with other global challenges like climate change, pandemics, and food insecurity: 15 of the top 25 countries most vulnerable to climate-related impacts (Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative index) are on our list of countries in FCS.

Forced displacement is a developing world crisis, which must be addressed with collective action:

• At mid-2023, 110 million were forcibly displaced as a result of persecution, conflict, violence or human rights violations.
• About 75% of 36.4 million refugees were hosted in low and middle-income countries.
• 66% of refugees have been displaced for at least five years.
• 52% of refugees worldwide originate from just three countries—Afghanistan, Syria and Ukraine.

Last Updated: May 24, 2024

As an institution born in the aftermath of World War II, reconstruction and development to foster stability is part of the World Bank’s core expertise. Responding to an increasingly complex fragility landscape, the World Bank is taking a broader approach to FCV that aims to address sources of instability and build resilience. The World Bank will remain engaged during active conflict, and in countries going through recovery and transition. Stronger collaboration with humanitarian-development-peace partners is critical to success.

A record-breaking $30 billion in financing for FCV-affected countries, approved in December 2021 under the International Development Association’s (IDA) 20th replenishment (IDA20), has been tailored to the diverse challenges facing the poorest countries. These countries will also have access to additional IDA resources to address specific thematic issues so they can get support at every stage of the conflict cycle: helping prevent the escalation of conflicts, remaining engaged during crisis and post-crisis situations to preserve human capital and key institutions, and helping create development opportunities for refugees and host communities.

Building on this progress, the WB has developed a comprehensive strategy to address the drivers of FCV in affected countries and their impact on vulnerable populations, with the ultimate goal of contributing to peace and prosperity.

While our mandate is long-term development, we are acting swiftly when the need arises. In early March 2022, our Board approved fast-disbursing support for Ukraine to help pay wages for hospital workers, pensions for the elderly, and social programs for the vulnerable.

Our support builds on our analysis and strategy in each county affected by FCV, where we are committed to: 

• addressing the root causes of fragility before they escalate into conflict; 
• remaining engaged in crisis situations to preserve human capital and key institutions;
• strengthening the social contract between citizens and the state;
• ensuring inclusion of the most vulnerable and marginalized. 

The mid-term review of the strategy, published in fiscal 2024, concluded that we engaged in conflict situations—Afghanistan, Haiti, the Sahel region, Somalia, South Sudan, Ukraine, and Yemen—to deliver basic services to people and protect institutions and development gains. We made significant progress in helping countries include refugees in their development priorities—expanding access to jobs, infrastructure, and services for refugees and their host communities. We also identified some challenges, including the need to become more effective in prevention and resilience by anticipating and responding to challenges earlier and better.

More and better financing is also needed at scale to enhance the Bank’s effectiveness in the most insecure environments.

The State and Peacebuilding Umbrella Trust Fund (SPF) is the World Bank’s leading global trust fund supporting implementation of the FCV Strategy. The SPF finances innovations at the frontiers of FCV that address FCV drivers and support sources of resilience. In 2023, the fund financed 42 grants, in 30 countries with a total fund value of $51.3 million. In addition to the World Bank (IBRD), nine donors (Australia, Denmark, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom) have provided groundbreaking support.

To help middle-income countries address the refugee crisis, the Global Concessional Financing Facility (GCFF), established in partnership with the UN and Islamic Development Bank and administered by the World Bank, has so far provided more than $953 million in grants to leverage almost $7.3 billion in concessional financing. These grants are benefiting Syrian refugees and their Jordanian and Lebanese host communities, promoting job creation and expanding vital public services and infrastructure. They are also supporting the needs of Venezuelan nationals who fled an ongoing crisis at home, and of their host communities in Colombia and Ecuador. And they are helping equip Moldova to boost policies and programs to better assist the integration of Ukrainian refugees.

To deliver, the Bank is deepening its knowledge and expanding its ”toolkit” for FCV. This includes:

• Fragility, Conflict, and Violence in Middle-income Countries lays out options for the World Bank and other development agencies to work more effectively in these situations.
• A Development Approach to Conflict-Induced Internal Displacement: outlines several recommendations to further step up our support to conflict-induced internally displaced persons (IDPs) and their hosts.
• Risk and Resilience Assessments: serve as the basis for country engagements and inform the preparation of the Systematic Country Diagnostics (SCD) and Country Partnership Frameworks (CPF). They also aim to address significant risks and shocks of different kinds.
• Recovery and Peacebuilding Assessments: provide a platform to help governments and their international partners identify, prioritize and sequence recovery and peacebuilding activities and coordinate support for planning and implementation.
• Joint UN-World Bank Study, Pathways for Peace: Inclusive Approaches to Preventing Violent Conflict: aims to improve understanding of how development processes interact with security, diplomatic, and other approaches to prevent conflict from becoming violent, published in March 2018.
• Forcibly Displaced Flagship Study: examines available data to better understand the scope of the challenge, and suggests a development approach that supports both refugees and host communities with long-term solutions.

Supporting sustainable investments in fragile and conflict-affected situations (FCS) is a priority for the International Finance Corporation (IFC). These economies need investments that will create jobs, spur economic growth, generate tax revenues, rebuild infrastructure, and create hope for their people. Among Development Finance Institutions, IFC is leading in this space, investing and mobilizing nearly $14 billion in FCS over the last decade. IFC also provides advisory support to help develop a pipeline of sustainable investments in these contexts. IFC has pledged that, by 2030, 40 percent of annual commitments will be in IDA-eligible and FCS countries.  

Last Updated: May 24, 2024

Highlights from the World Bank’s operational work

Horn of Africa: Development Response to Displacement Impacts Project (DRDIP) is a $630 million regional operation in the Horn of Africa covering Djibouti, Kenya, Uganda, and Ethiopia. The project seeks to mitigate the social, economic and environmental impacts of protracted refugee presence while also maximizing the opportunities offered. Between 2017 and mid-2023, 5.5 million people, of whom 53 percent are women, have benefited from improved access to basic services such as education, health, water and sanitation. Livelihood activities have supported over 285,000 people with business grants and training on entrepreneurship, with 150,000 beneficiaries reporting an increase in income. 1,751 infrastructure subprojects targeting water, health and education facilities, and roads and markets have been completed, and another 595 are currently under construction.  397,000 people have been provided access to renewable energy. An additional $3.4 million in funding was provided for the project in Kenya in December 2022 to cover cost increases for schools, health facilities, and water systems subprojects caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. A $180 million second phase in Ethiopia commenced in October 2022 and will run until 2027.

Yemen Emergency Human Capital Project, approved in June 2021, provides essential health, nutrition, water, and sanitation services to Yemen's population in response to deteriorating health and nutrition conditions due to over eight years of conflict. As of February 2023, 450,000 people were provided with access to improved water and sanitation services in rural and urban areas. The project supports 72 hospitals and 2,198 primary health facilities, reaching 7.21 million people, of which 3.8 million are women. Over 300,000 women are receiving antenatal care during a visit to a health provider and over 1 million children have been immunized. Twelve percent of all health beneficiaries are internally displaced persons (IDPs). The project is being implemented by UNICEF, UNOPS, and WHO.

Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC): Between 2010 and 2021, the Agriculture Rehabilitation and Recovery Project in DRC supported farmers with improved agricultural practices and encouraged job creation, with particular attention given to youth and women, through civil works like rehabilitating and maintaining rural roads, directly benefiting over 160,000 people, 57 percent of whom are women. Road rehabilitation provided short-term employment for 7,422 people and improved access to 76 health centers and 205 schools, injecting $2.4 million into the local economy.  Job creation has promoted economic stability and economic recovery leading to a reduced risk of youth joining conflict. Through the project, 360 hectares were reforested with increased tree covers; 90 percent of farmers were reached with agricultural assets or services; 5,605 tons of improved certified seed were produced annually; and 140,580 farmers adopted improved agricultural technologies. Storage silos for seeds and crops have also helped to reduce post-harvest loss by 50 percent and supported improved food security and nutrition outcomes. With a population of about 2 million, about 1,850 villages benefited from the rural roads’ rehabilitation, allowing farmers to easily transport their agricultural produce to markets. Increased agricultural productivity and production and access is helping the country address fragility.

Central African Republic: With about a quarter of its population displaced, the situation in CAR has the potential to destabilize fragile neighboring countries. The Bank’s Londo (“Stand Up”) Project provides temporary employment to vulnerable people through national labor-intensive public works programs –most recently, producing millions of face masks to control the spread of COVID-19. The project has successfully deployed in rebel-controlled areas and set examples in partnering with peacekeeping forces and the humanitarian community.

Sahel: The Sahel Women’s Empowerment and Demographic Dividend project (SWEDD) approved in December 2014 is helping empower women and adolescent girls, and increase their access to quality education and reproductive, child and maternal health services in Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea, Mali, Mauritania, and Niger. Over 675,000 girls have benefited from these interventions; more than 9,200 midwives have been trained to promote adolescent-friendly services and community-based distribution of family planning products; there are 451,000 new users of modern contraception; and close to 13,400 religious leaders engaged by SWEDD actively promote girls and women’s empowerment.

Jordan: The Emergency Health Project has provided critical primary and secondary health care services for poor, uninsured Jordanians and Syrian refugees since 2017, including maternal and child health, and treatment of communicable and non-communicable diseases at over 700 health centers and hospitals run by the Ministry of Health across the country. By March 2023, more than 8 million health care services have been provided, of which 4.4 million were for women and almost 250,000 for refugees. The project continued to provide primary and secondary healthcare services during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.

The project has helped establish the first systematic mechanism to track health services provided to vulnerable populations, including Syrian refugees.

See more World Bank results in situations affected by fragility, conflict and violence.

Sharing Knowledge to Promote Peaceful and Inclusive Societies

The Fragility Forum 2024 , which was organized as a hybrid event for brought together more than 7,000 participants from across the development, humanitarian, diplomatic and security communities to share their knowledge under the theme “Adapting and Innovating in a Volatile World.”

Last Updated: May 24, 2024