Global Economic Prospects: Selected Topics, 2015-2024
Select Other Publications on the Global Economy
________________________________________________________
Growth and Business Cycles
| Economics of pandemics |
|
| Impact of COVID-19 on global income inequality |
Jan. 2022, chapter 4 |
| Regional macroeconomic implications of COVID-19 |
June 2020, Special Focus |
| Lasting Scars of the COVID-19 Pandemic |
June 2020, Chapter 3 |
| Adding fuel to the fire: Cheap oil during the pandemic |
June 2020, Chapter 4 |
| How deep will the COVID-19 recession be? |
June 2020, Box 1.1 |
| Scenarios of possible global growth outcomes |
June 2020, Box 1.3 |
| How does informality aggravate the impact of COVID-19? |
June 2020, Box 1.4 |
| The impact of COVID-19 on global value chains |
June 2020, SF1 |
| How do deep recessions affect potential output? |
June 2020, Box 3.1 |
| How do disasters affect productivity? |
June 2020, Box 3.2 |
| Reforms after the 2014-16 oil price plunge |
June 2020, Box 4.1 |
| The macroeconomic effects of pandemics and epidemics: A literature review |
June 2020, Annex 3.1 |
| Informality |
|
| How does informality aggravate the impact of COVID-19? |
June 2020, Box 1.4 |
| Growing in the shadow: Challenges of informality |
Jan. 2019, Chapter 3 |
| Linkages between formal and informal sectors |
Jan. 2019, Box 3.1 |
| Regional dimensions of informality: An overview |
Jan. 2019, Box 3.2 |
| Casting a shadow: Productivity in formal and informal firms |
Jan. 2019, Box 3.3 |
| Under the magnifying glass: How do policies affect informality? |
Jan. 2019, Box 3.4 |
| Inflation |
|
| Global stagflation |
June 2022, SF 1 |
| Emerging inflation pressures: Cause for alarm? |
June 2021, chapter 4 |
| Low for how much longer? Inflation in low-income countries |
Jan. 2020, SF 2 |
| Currency depreciation, inflation, and central bank independence |
June 2019, SF 1.2 |
| The great disinflation |
Jan. 2019, Box 1.1 |
| Growth prospects |
|
| Small states: Overlapping crises, multiple challenges |
Jan. 2023, chapter 4 |
| Global stagflation |
June 2022, SF 1 |
| Global growth scenarios |
Jan. 2021, Box 1.4 |
| The macroeconomic effects of pandemics and epidemics: A literature review |
June 2020, Annex 3.1 |
| How deep will the COVID-19 recession be? |
June 2020, Box 1.1 |
| Lasting scars of the COVID-19 pandemic |
June 2020, Chapter 3 |
| Regional macroeconomic implications of COVID-19 |
June 2020, SF |
| Growth in low-income countries: Evolution, prospects, and policies |
June 2019, SF 2.1 |
| Long-term growth prospects: Downgraded no more? |
June 2018, Box 1.1 |
| Global output gap |
|
| Is the global economy turning the corner? |
Jan. 2018, Box 1.1 |
| Potential growth |
|
| Global economy: Heading into a decade of disappointments? |
Jan. 2021, Chapter 3 |
| How do deep recessions affect potential output in EMDEs? |
June 2020, Box 3.1 |
| Building solid foundations: How to promote potential growth |
Jan. 2018, Chapter 3 |
| What is potential growth? |
Jan. 2018, Box 3.1 |
| Understanding the recent productivity slowdown: Facts and explanations |
Jan. 2018, Box 3.2 |
| Moving together? Investment and potential output |
Jan. 2018, Box 3.3 |
| The long shadow of contractions over potential output |
Jan. 2018, Box 3.4 |
| Productivity and investment growth during reforms |
Jan. 2018, Box 3.5 |
| Cross-border spillovers |
|
| Who catches a cold when emerging markets sneeze? |
Jan. 2016, Chapter 3 |
| Sources of the growth slowdown in BRICS |
Jan. 2016, Box 3.1 |
| Understanding cross-border growth spillovers |
Jan. 2016, Box 3.2 |
| Within-region spillovers |
Jan. 2016, Box 3.3 |
| Productivity |
|
| How do disasters affect productivity? |
June 2020, Box 3.2 |
| Fading promise: How to rekindle productivity growth |
Jan. 2020, Chapter 3 |
| EMDE regional productivity trends and bottlenecks |
Jan. 2020, Box 3.1 |
| Sectoral sources of productivity growth |
Jan. 2020, Box 3.2 |
| Patterns of total factor productivity: a firm perspective |
Jan. 2020, Box 3.3 |
| Debt, financial crises, and productivity |
Jan. 2020, Box 3.4 |
| Investment |
|
| Harnessing the benefits of public investment |
June 2024, chapter 3 |
| The magic of investment accelerations |
Jan. 2024, chapter 3 |
| Sparking investment accelerations: Lessons from country case studies |
Jan. 2024, box 3.1 |
| Investment growth after the pandemic |
Jan. 2023, chapter 3 |
| Investment: Subdued prospects, strong needs |
June 2019, SF 1.1 |
| Weak investment in uncertain times: Causes, implications and policy responses |
Jan. 2017, Chapter 3 |
| Investment-less credit booms |
Jan. 2017, Box 3.1 |
| Implications of rising uncertainty for investment in EMDEs |
Jan. 2017, Box 3.2 |
| Investment slowdown in China |
Jan. 2017, Box 3.3 |
| Interactions between public and private investment |
Jan. 2017, Box 3.4 |
| Forecast uncertainty |
|
| Scenarios of possible global growth outcomes |
June 2020, Box 1.3 |
| Quantifying uncertainties in global growth forecasts |
June 2016, SF 2 |
| Fiscal space |
|
| Fiscal challenges in small states: Weathering storms, rebuilding resilience |
June 2024, chapter 4 |
| Having space and using it: Fiscal policy challenges and developing economies |
Jan. 2015, Chapter 3 |
| Fiscal policy in low-income countries |
Jan. 2015, Box 3.1 |
| What affects the size of fiscal multipliers? |
Jan. 2015, Box 3.2 |
| Chile’s fiscal rule—an example of success |
Jan. 2015, Box 3.3 |
| Narrow fiscal space and the risk of a debt crisis |
Jan. 2015, Box 3.4 |
| Revenue mobilization in South Asia: Policy challenges and recommendations |
Jan. 2015, Box 2.3 |
| Other topics |
|
| Education demographics and global inequality |
Jan. 2018, SF 2 |
| Recent developments in emerging and developing country labor markets |
June 2015, Box 1.3 |
| Linkages between China and Sub-Saharan Africa |
June 2015, Box 2.1 |
| What does weak growth mean for poverty in the future? |
Jan. 2015, Box 1.1 |
| What does a slowdown in China mean for Latin America and the Caribbean? |
Jan. 2015, Box 2.2 |
Top
Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies
| Financial spillovers of rising U.S. interest rates |
June 2023, chapter 3 |
| Asset purchases in emerging markets: Unconventional policies, unconventional times |
January 2021, Chapter 4 |
| The fourth wave: Rapid debt buildup |
Jan. 2020, Chapter 4 |
| Price controls: Good intentions, bad outcomes |
Jan. 2020, SF 1 |
| Low for how much longer? Inflation in low-income countries |
Jan. 2020, SF 2 |
| Currency depreciation, inflation, and central bank independence |
June 2019, SF 1.2 |
| The great disinflation |
Jan. 2019, Box 1.1 |
| Corporate debt: Financial stability and investment implications |
June 2018, SF 2 |
| Recent credit surge in historical context |
June 2016, SF 1 |
| Peg and control? The links between exchange rate regimes and capital account policies |
Jan. 2016, Chapter 4 |
| Negative interest rates in Europe: A glance at their causes and implications |
June 2015, Box 1.1 |
| Hoping for the best, preparing for the worst: Risks around U.S. rate liftoff and policy options |
June 2015, SF 1 |
| Countercyclical monetary policy in emerging markets: Review and evidence |
Jan. 2015, Box 1.2 |
Top
Fiscal Policies
| Fiscal policy in commodity exporters: An enduring challenge |
Jan. 2024, chapter 4 |
| How does procyclical fiscal policy affect output growth? |
Jan. 2024, box 4.1 |
| Do fiscal rules and sovereign wealth funds make a difference? Lessons from country case studies |
Jan. 2024, box 4.2 |
| Fiscal policy challenges in low-income countries |
June 2023, chapter 4 |
| Resolving high debt after the pandemic: Lessons from past episodes of debt relief |
Jan. 2022, Special Focus |
| How has the pandemic made the fourth wave of debt more dangerous? |
Jan. 2021, Box 1.1 |
| The fourth wave: Rapid debt buildup |
Jan. 2020, Chapter 4 |
| Debt: No free lunch |
June 2019, Box 1.1 |
| Debt in low-income countries: Evolution, implications, and remedies |
Jan. 2019, Chapter 4 |
| Debt dynamics in emerging market and developing economies: Time to act? |
June 2017, SF 1 |
| Having fiscal space and using it: Fiscal challenges in developing economies |
Jan. 2015, Chapter 3 |
| Revenue mobilization in South Asia: Policy challenges and recommendations |
Jan. 2015, Box 2.3 |
| Fiscal policy in low-income countries |
Jan. 2015, Box 3.1 |
| What affects the size of fiscal multipliers? |
Jan. 2015, Box 3.2 |
| Chile’s fiscal rule—an example of success |
Jan. 2015, Box 3.3 |
| Narrow fiscal space and the risk of a debt crisis |
Jan. 2015, Box 3.4
|
Top
Commodity Markets
| Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: Implications for energy markets and activity |
June 2022, Special Focus 2 |
| Commodity price cycles: Drivers and policies |
Jan. 2022, Chapter 3 |
| Reforms after the 2014-16 oil price plunge |
June 2020, Box 4.1 |
| Adding fuel to the fire: Cheap oil in the pandemic |
June 2020, Chapter 4 |
| The role of major emerging markets in global commodity demand |
June 2018, SF 1 |
| The role of the EM7 in commodity production |
June 2018, Box SF1.1 |
| Commodity consumption: Implications of government policies |
June 2018, Box SF1.2 |
| With the benefit of hindsight: The impact of the 2014–16 oil price collapse |
Jan. 2018, SF 1 |
| From commodity discovery to production: Vulnerabilities and policies in LICs |
Jan. 2016, SF |
| After the commodities boom: What next for low-income countries? |
June 2015, SF 2 |
| Low oil prices in perspective |
June 2015, Box 1.2 |
| Understanding the plunge in oil prices: Sources and implications |
Jan. 2015, Chapter 4 |
| What do we know about the impact of oil prices on output and inflation? A brief survey |
Jan. 2015, Box 4.1 |
Top
Globalization of Trade and Financial Flows
| High trade costs: Causes and remedies |
June 2021, Chapter 3 |
| The impact of COVID-19 on global value chains |
June 2020, Box SF1 |
| Poverty impact of food price shocks and policies |
Jan. 2019, Chapter 4 |
| Arm’s-Length trade: A source of post-crisis trade weakness |
June 2017, SF 2 |
| The U.S. economy and the world |
Jan. 2017, SF |
| Potential macroeconomic implications of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement |
Jan. 2016, Chapter 4 |
| Regulatory convergence in mega-regional trade agreements |
Jan. 2016, Box 4.1.1 |
| China’s integration in global supply chains: Review and implications |
Jan. 2015, Box 2.1 |
| Can remittances help promote consumption stability? |
Jan. 2015, Chapter 4 |
| What lies behind the global trade slowdown? |
Jan. 2015, Chapter 4 |
Top
Selected Other Publications on the Global Economy
| Commodity Markets Outlook |
|
| Potential near-term implications of the conflict in the Middle East for commodity markets: A preliminary assessment |
October 2023 |
| Forecasting industrial commodity prices |
April 2023 |
| Pandemic, war, recession: Drivers of aluminum and copper prices |
October 2022 |
| The impact of the war in Ukraine on commodity markets |
April 2022 |
| Urbanization and commodity demand |
October 2021 |
| Causes and consequences of metal price shocks |
April 2021 |
| Persistence of commodity shocks |
October 2020 |
| Food price shocks: Channels and implications |
April 2019 |
| The implications of tariffs for commodity markets |
October 2018 |
| The changing of the guard: Shifts in industrial commodity demand |
October 2018 |
| Oil exporters: Policies and challenges |
April 2018 |
| Investment weakness in commodity exporters |
January 2017 |
| OPEC in historical context: Commodity agreements and market fundamentals |
October 2016 |
| From energy prices to food prices: Moving in tandem? |
July 2016 |
| Resource development in an era of cheap commodities |
April 2016 |
| Weak growth in emerging market economies: What does it imply for commodity markets? |
January 2016 |
| Understanding El Niño: What does it mean for commodity markets? |
October 2015 |
| How important are China and India in global commodity consumption? |
July 2015 |
| Anatomy of the last four oil price crashes |
April 2015 |
| Putting the recent plunge in oil prices in perspective |
January 2015 |
| Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies: Evolution, Drivers, and Policies (2018) |
|
| Inflation: Concepts, evolution, and correlates |
Chapter 1 |
| Understanding global inflation synchronization |
Chapter 2 |
| Sources of inflation: Global and domestic drivers |
Chapter 3 |
| Inflation expectations: Review and evidence |
Chapter 4 |
| Inflation and exchange rate pass-through |
Chapter 5 |
| Inflation in low-income countries |
Chapter 6 |
| Poverty impact of food price shocks and policies |
Chapter 7 |
A Decade After the Global Recession:
Lessons and Challenges for Emerging and Developing Economies (2019) |
|
| A decade after the global recession: Lessons and challenges |
Chapter 1 |
| What happens during global recessions? |
Chapter 2 |
| Macroeconomic developments |
Chapter 3 |
| Financial market developments |
Chapter 4 |
| Macroeconomic and financial sector policies |
Chapter 5 |
| Prospects, risks, and vulnerabilities |
Chapter 6 |
| Policy challenges |
Chapter 7 |
| The role of the World Bank Group |
Chapter 8 |
| Global Waves of Debt: Causes and Consequences (2019) |
|
| Debt: Evolution, causes, and consequences |
Chapter 1 |
| Benefits and costs of debt: The dose makes the poison |
Chapter 2 |
| Global waves of debt: What goes up must come down? |
Chapter 3 |
| The fourth wave: Ripple or tsunami? |
Chapter 4 |
| Debt and financial crises: From euphoria to distress |
Chapter 5 |
| Policies: Turning mistakes into experience |
Chapter 6 |
| Global Productivity: Trends, Drivers, and Policies (2020) |
|
| Global productivity trends |
Chapter 1 |
| What explains productivity growth |
Chapter 2 |
| What happens to productivity during major adverse events? |
Chapter 3 |
| Productivity convergence: Is anyone catching up? |
Chapter 4 |
| Regional dimensions of productivity: Trends, explanations, and policies |
Chapter 5 |
| Productivity: Technology, demand, and employment trade-offs |
Chapter 6 |
| Sectoral Sources of Productivity Growth |
Chapter 7 |
| The Long Shadow of Informality: Challenges and Policies (2021) |
|
| Overview |
Chapter 1 |
| Understanding the informal economy: Concepts and trends |
Chapter 2 |
| Growing apart or moving together? Synchronization of informal- and formal-economy business cycles |
Chapter 3 |
| Lagging behind: informality and development |
Chapter 4 |
| Informality in emerging market and developing economies: Regional dimensions |
Chapter 5 |
| Tackling informality: Policy options |
Chapter 6 |
| Commodity Markets: Evolution, Challenges and Policies |
|
| The evolution of commodity markets over the past century |
Chapter 1 |
| Commodity demand: Drivers, outlook, and implications |
Chapter 2 |
| The nature and drivers of commodity price cycles |
Chapter 3 |
| Causes and consequences of industrial commodity price shocks |
Chapter 4 |
| Falling Long-Term Growth Prospects |
|
| Potential not realized: An international database of potential growth |
Chapter 1 |
| Regional dimensions of potential growth: Hopes and realities |
Chapter 2 |
| The global investment slowdown: Challenges and policies |
Chapter 3 |
| Regional dimensions of investment: Moving in the right direction? |
Chapter 4 |
| Potential growth prospects: Risks, rewards and policies |
Chapter 5 |
| Trade as an engine of growth: Sputtering but fixable |
Chapter 6 |
| Services-led growth: Better prospects after the pandemic? |
Chapter 7 |
| The Great Reversal: Prospects, Risks, and Policies in International Development Association Countries |
|
| Full report |
|
Top
Delfin S. Go
Global Inequality in a More Educated World (2017)
(with Syud Amer Ahmed, Maurizio Bussolo, Marcio Cruz, and Israel Osorio-Rodarte)
Assessing the Global Economic and Poverty Effects of Antimicrobial Resistance (2017)
(with Syud Amer Ahmed, Enis Barış, Hans Lofgren, Israel Osorio-Rodarte, and Karen Thierfelder)
China’s Slowdown and Rebalancing: Potential Growth and Poverty Impacts on Sub-Saharan Africa (2016)
(with Csilla Lakatos, Maryla Maliszewska, and Israel Osorio-Rodarte)
Global Migration Revisited: Short-Term Pains, Long-Term Gains, and the Potential of South-South Migration (2016)
(wtih S. Amer Ahmed and Dirk Willenbockel)
Estimating Parameters and Structural Change in CGE Models Using a Bayesian Cross-Entropy Estimation Approach (2015)
(with Hans Lofgren, Fabian Mendez Ramos, and Sherman Robinson)
How Significant Is Africa’s Demographic Dividend for Its Future Growth and Poverty Reduction? (2014)
(with S. Amer Ahmed, Marcio Cruz, Maryla Maliszewska, and Israel Osorio-Rodarte)
Israel Osorio-Rodarte
Global Inequality in a More Educated World (2017)
(with Syud Amer Ahmed, Maurizio Bussolo, Marcio Cruz, and Delfin S. Go)
Assessing the Global Economic and Poverty Effects of Antimicrobial Resistance (2017)
(with Syud Amer Ahmed, Enis Barış, Delfin S. Go, Hans Lofgren, and Karen Thierfelder)
China’s Slowdown and Rebalancing: Potential Growth and Poverty Impacts on Sub-Saharan Africa (2016)
(with Csilla Lakatos, Maryla Maliszewska, and Delfin Go)
A Product Space Perspective on Structural Change in Morocco (2015)
(with Hans Lofgren)
How Significant Is Africa’s Demographic Dividend for Its Future Growth and Poverty Reduction? (2014)
(with S. Amer Ahmed, Marcio Cruz, Delfin S. Go, and Maryla Maliszewska)
Israel Osorio-Rodarte
Global Inequality in a More Educated World (2017)
(with Syud Amer Ahmed, Maurizio Bussolo, Marcio Cruz, and Delfin S. Go)
Assessing the Global Economic and Poverty Effects of Antimicrobial Resistance (2017)
(with Syud Amer Ahmed, Enis Barış, Delfin S. Go, Hans Lofgren, and Karen Thierfelder)
China’s Slowdown and Rebalancing: Potential Growth and Poverty Impacts on Sub-Saharan Africa (2016)
(with Csilla Lakatos, Maryla Maliszewska, and Delfin Go)
A Product Space Perspective on Structural Change in Morocco (2015)
(with Hans Lofgren)
How Significant Is Africa’s Demographic Dividend for Its Future Growth and Poverty Reduction? (2014)
(with S. Amer Ahmed, Marcio Cruz, Delfin S. Go, and Maryla Maliszewska)
Israel Osorio-Rodarte
Global Inequality in a More Educated World (2017)
(with Syud Amer Ahmed, Maurizio Bussolo, Marcio Cruz, and Delfin S. Go)
Assessing the Global Economic and Poverty Effects of Antimicrobial Resistance (2017)
(with Syud Amer Ahmed, Enis Barış, Delfin S. Go, Hans Lofgren, and Karen Thierfelder)
China’s Slowdown and Rebalancing: Potential Growth and Poverty Impacts on Sub-Saharan Africa (2016)
(with Csilla Lakatos, Maryla Maliszewska, and Delfin Go)
A Product Space Perspective on Structural Change in Morocco (2015)
(with Hans Lofgren)
How Significant Is Africa’s Demographic Dividend for Its Future Growth and Poverty Reduction? (2014)
(with S. Amer Ahmed, Marcio Cruz, Delfin S. Go, and Maryla Maliszewska)
Israel Osorio-Rodarte
Global Inequality in a More Educated World (2017)
(with Syud Amer Ahmed, Maurizio Bussolo, Marcio Cruz, and Delfin S. Go)
Assessing the Global Economic and Poverty Effects of Antimicrobial Resistance (2017)
(with Syud Amer Ahmed, Enis Barış, Delfin S. Go, Hans Lofgren, and Karen Thierfelder)
China’s Slowdown and Rebalancing: Potential Growth and Poverty Impacts on Sub-Saharan Africa (2016)
(with Csilla Lakatos, Maryla Maliszewska, and Delfin Go)
A Product Space Perspective on Structural Change in Morocco (2015)
(with Hans Lofgren)
How Significant Is Africa’s Demographic Dividend for Its Future Growth and Poverty Reduction? (2014)
(with S. Amer Ahmed, Marcio Cruz, Delfin S. Go, and Maryla Maliszewska)
Israel Osorio-Rodarte
Global Inequality in a More Educated World (2017)
(with Syud Amer Ahmed, Maurizio Bussolo, Marcio Cruz, and Delfin S. Go)
Assessing the Global Economic and Poverty Effects of Antimicrobial Resistance (2017)
(with Syud Amer Ahmed, Enis Barış, Delfin S. Go, Hans Lofgren, and Karen Thierfelder)
China’s Slowdown and Rebalancing: Potential Growth and Poverty Impacts on Sub-Saharan Africa (2016)
(with Csilla Lakatos, Maryla Maliszewska, and Delfin Go)
A Product Space Perspective on Structural Change in Morocco (2015)
(with Hans Lofgren)
How Significant Is Africa’s Demographic Dividend for Its Future Growth and Poverty Reduction? (2014)
(with S. Amer Ahmed, Marcio Cruz, Delfin S. Go, and Maryla Maliszewska)
Jamus Jerome Lim
Do Fiscal Multipliers Depend on Fiscal Positions? (2016)
(with Raju Huidrom, M. Ayhan Kose, and Franziska L. Ohnsorge)
Capital Will Not Become More Expensive as the World Ages (2014)
(with Maurizio Bussolo, Maryla Maliszewska, and Hans Timmer)
Unconventional Monetary Policy Normalization in High-Income Countries Implications for Emerging Market Capital Flows and Crisis Risks (2014)
(with Andrew Burns, Mizuho Kida, Sanket Mohapatra, and Marc Stocker)
Tinker, Taper, QE, Bye? The Effect of Quantitative Easing on Financial Flows to Developing Countries (2014)
(with Sanket Mohapatra and Marc Stocker)
Jamus Jerome Lim
Do Fiscal Multipliers Depend on Fiscal Positions? (2016)
(with Raju Huidrom, M. Ayhan Kose, and Franziska L. Ohnsorge)
Capital Will Not Become More Expensive as the World Ages (2014)
(with Maurizio Bussolo, Maryla Maliszewska, and Hans Timmer)
Unconventional Monetary Policy Normalization in High-Income Countries Implications for Emerging Market Capital Flows and Crisis Risks (2014)
(with Andrew Burns, Mizuho Kida, Sanket Mohapatra, and Marc Stocker)
Tinker, Taper, QE, Bye? The Effect of Quantitative Easing on Financial Flows to Developing Countries (2014)
(with Sanket Mohapatra and Marc Stocker)
