Global Economic Prospects: Selected Topics, 2015-2025
- Growth and Business Cycles
- Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies
- Fiscal Policies
- Commodity Markets
- Globalization of Trade and Financial Flows
Select Other Publications on the Global Economy
- A Decade After the Global Recession: Lessons and Challenges for Emerging and Developing Economies
- Commodity Markets Outlook
- Commodity Markets: Evolution, Challenges, and Policies
- Falling Long-Term Growth Prospects: Trends, Expectations, and Policies
- Global Productivity: Trends, Drivers, and Policies
- Global Waves of Debt: Causes and Consequences
- The Great Reversal: Prospects, Risks, and Policies in IDA Countries
- Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies
- The Long Shadow of Informality: Challenges and Policies
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| Economics of pandemics | |
| Impact of COVID-19 on global income inequality | Jan. 2022, chapter 4 |
| Regional macroeconomic implications of COVID-19 | June 2020, Special Focus |
| Lasting Scars of the COVID-19 Pandemic | June 2020, Chapter 3 |
| Adding fuel to the fire: Cheap oil during the pandemic | June 2020, Chapter 4 |
| How deep will the COVID-19 recession be? | June 2020, Box 1.1 |
| Scenarios of possible global growth outcomes | June 2020, Box 1.3 |
| How does informality aggravate the impact of COVID-19? | June 2020, Box 1.4 |
| The impact of COVID-19 on global value chains | June 2020, SF1 |
| How do deep recessions affect potential output? | June 2020, Box 3.1 |
| How do disasters affect productivity? | June 2020, Box 3.2 |
| Reforms after the 2014-16 oil price plunge | June 2020, Box 4.1 |
| The macroeconomic effects of pandemics and epidemics: A literature review | June 2020, Annex 3.1 |
| Informality | |
| How does informality aggravate the impact of COVID-19? | June 2020, Box 1.4 |
| Growing in the shadow: Challenges of informality | Jan. 2019, Chapter 3 |
| Linkages between formal and informal sectors | Jan. 2019, Box 3.1 |
| Regional dimensions of informality: An overview | Jan. 2019, Box 3.2 |
| Casting a shadow: Productivity in formal and informal firms | Jan. 2019, Box 3.3 |
| Under the magnifying glass: How do policies affect informality? | Jan. 2019, Box 3.4 |
| Inflation | |
| Global stagflation | June 2022, SF 1 |
| Emerging inflation pressures: Cause for alarm? | June 2021, Chapter 4 |
| Low for how much longer? Inflation in low-income countries | Jan. 2020, SF 2 |
| Currency depreciation, inflation, and central bank independence | June 2019, SF 1.2 |
| The great disinflation | Jan. 2019, Box 1.1 |
| Growth prospects | |
| Frontier market economies: Promise, performance, and prospects | Jan. 2026, Chapter 4 |
| From tailwinds to headwinds: Emerging and developing economies in the twenty-first century | Jan. 2025, Chapter 3 |
| Falling graduation prospects: Low-income countries in the twenty-first century | Jan. 2025, Chapter 4 |
| Small states: Overlapping crises, multiple challenges | Jan. 2023, chapter 4 |
| Global stagflation | June 2022, SF 1 |
| Global growth scenarios | Jan. 2021, Box 1.4 |
| The macroeconomic effects of pandemics and epidemics: A literature review | June 2020, Annex 3.1 |
| How deep will the COVID-19 recession be? | June 2020, Box 1.1 |
| Lasting scars of the COVID-19 pandemic | June 2020, Chapter 3 |
| Regional macroeconomic implications of COVID-19 | June 2020, SF |
| Growth in low-income countries: Evolution, prospects, and policies | June 2019, SF 2.1 |
| Long-term growth prospects: Downgraded no more? | June 2018, Box 1.1 |
| Global output gap | |
| Is the global economy turning the corner? | Jan. 2018, Box 1.1 |
| Potential growth | |
| Global economy: Heading into a decade of disappointments? | Jan. 2021, Chapter 3 |
| How do deep recessions affect potential output in EMDEs? | June 2020, Box 3.1 |
| Building solid foundations: How to promote potential growth | Jan. 2018, Chapter 3 |
| What is potential growth? | Jan. 2018, Box 3.1 |
| Understanding the recent productivity slowdown: Facts and explanations | Jan. 2018, Box 3.2 |
| Moving together? Investment and potential output | Jan. 2018, Box 3.3 |
| The long shadow of contractions over potential output | Jan. 2018, Box 3.4 |
| Productivity and investment growth during reforms | Jan. 2018, Box 3.5 |
| Cross-border spillovers | |
| Who catches a cold when emerging markets sneeze? | Jan. 2016, Chapter 3 |
| Sources of the growth slowdown in BRICS | Jan. 2016, Box 3.1 |
| Understanding cross-border growth spillovers | Jan. 2016, Box 3.2 |
| Within-region spillovers | Jan. 2016, Box 3.3 |
| Productivity | |
| How do disasters affect productivity? | June 2020, Box 3.2 |
| Fading promise: How to rekindle productivity growth | Jan. 2020, Chapter 3 |
| EMDE regional productivity trends and bottlenecks | Jan. 2020, Box 3.1 |
| Sectoral sources of productivity growth | Jan. 2020, Box 3.2 |
| Patterns of total factor productivity: A firm perspective | Jan. 2020, Box 3.3 |
| Debt, financial crises, and productivity | Jan. 2020, Box 3.4 |
| Investment | |
| Foreign direct investment in retreat: Policies to turn the tide | June 2025, Chapter 3 |
| Harnessing the benefits of public investment | June 2024, Chapter 3 |
| Public investment dynamics around adverse events | June 2024, Box 3.1 |
| Macroeconomic impacts of public investment: A literature review | June 2024, Box 3.2 |
| The magic of investment accelerations | Jan. 2024, Chapter 3 |
| Sparking investment accelerations: Lessons from country case studies | Jan. 2024, Box 3.1 |
| Investment growth after the pandemic | Jan. 2023, Chapter 3 |
| Investment: Subdued prospects, strong needs | June 2019, SF 1.1 |
| Weak investment in uncertain times: Causes, implications and policy responses | Jan. 2017, Chapter 3 |
| Investment-less credit booms | Jan. 2017, Box 3.1 |
| Implications of rising uncertainty for investment in EMDEs | Jan. 2017, Box 3.2 |
| Investment slowdown in China | Jan. 2017, Box 3.3 |
| Interactions between public and private investment | Jan. 2017, Box 3.4 |
| Forecast uncertainty | |
| Scenarios of possible global growth outcomes | June 2020, Box 1.3 |
| Quantifying uncertainties in global growth forecasts | June 2016, SF 2 |
| Fiscal space | |
| Fiscal challenges in small states: Weathering storms, rebuilding resilience | June 2024, Chapter 4 |
| Having space and using it: Fiscal policy challenges and developing economies | Jan. 2015, Chapter 3 |
| Fiscal policy in low-income countries | Jan. 2015, Box 3.1 |
| What affects the size of fiscal multipliers? | Jan. 2015, Box 3.2 |
| Chile’s fiscal rule—an example of success | Jan. 2015, Box 3.3 |
| Narrow fiscal space and the risk of a debt crisis | Jan. 2015, Box 3.4 |
| Revenue mobilization in South Asia: Policy challenges and recommendations | Jan. 2015, Box 2.3 |
| Other topics | |
| Fragile and conflict-affected situations: Intertwined crises, multiple vulnerabilities | June 2025, Chapter 4 |
| Education demographics and global inequality | Jan. 2018, SF 2 |
| Recent developments in emerging and developing country labor markets | June 2015, Box 1.3 |
| Linkages between China and Sub-Saharan Africa | June 2015, Box 2.1 |
| What does weak growth mean for poverty in the future? | Jan. 2015, Box 1.1 |
| What does a slowdown in China mean for Latin America and the Caribbean? | Jan. 2015, Box 2.2 |
Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies
| Financial spillovers of rising U.S. interest rates | June 2023, Chapter 3 |
| Asset purchases in emerging markets: Unconventional policies, unconventional times | January 2021, Chapter 4 |
| The fourth wave: Rapid debt buildup | Jan. 2020, Chapter 4 |
| Price controls: Good intentions, bad outcomes | Jan. 2020, SF 1 |
| Low for how much longer? Inflation in low-income countries | Jan. 2020, SF 2 |
| Currency depreciation, inflation, and central bank independence | June 2019, SF 1.2 |
| The great disinflation | Jan. 2019, Box 1.1 |
| Corporate debt: Financial stability and investment implications | June 2018, SF 2 |
| Recent credit surge in historical context | June 2016, SF 1 |
| Peg and control? The links between exchange rate regimes and capital account policies | Jan. 2016, Chapter 4 |
| Negative interest rates in Europe: A glance at their causes and implications | June 2015, Box 1.1 |
| Hoping for the best, preparing for the worst: Risks around U.S. rate liftoff and policy options | June 2015, SF 1 |
| Countercyclical monetary policy in emerging markets: Review and evidence | Jan. 2015, Box 1.2 |
| Rebuilding fiscal space: The case for fiscal rules | Jan. 2026, Chapter 3 |
| Fiscal challenges in small states: Weathering storms, rebuilding resilience | June 2024, Chapter 4 |
| Fiscal policy in commodity exporters: An enduring challenge | Jan. 2024, Chapter 4 |
| How does procyclical fiscal policy affect output growth? | Jan. 2024, Box 4.1 |
| Do fiscal rules and sovereign wealth funds make a difference? Lessons from country case studies | Jan. 2024, Box 4.2 |
| Fiscal policy challenges in low-income countries | June 2023, Chapter 4 |
| Resolving high debt after the pandemic: Lessons from past episodes of debt relief | Jan. 2022, Special Focus |
| How has the pandemic made the fourth wave of debt more dangerous? | Jan. 2021, Box 1.1 |
| The fourth wave: Rapid debt buildup | Jan. 2020, Chapter 4 |
| Debt: No free lunch | June 2019, Box 1.1 |
| Debt in low-income countries: Evolution, implications, and remedies | Jan. 2019, Chapter 4 |
| Debt dynamics in emerging market and developing economies: Time to act? | June 2017, Special Focus 1 |
| Having fiscal space and using it: Fiscal challenges in developing economies | Jan. 2015, Chapter 3 |
| Revenue mobilization in South Asia: Policy challenges and recommendations | Jan. 2015, Box 2.3 |
| Fiscal policy in low-income countries | Jan. 2015, Box 3.1 |
| What affects the size of fiscal multipliers? | Jan. 2015, Box 3.2 |
| Chile’s fiscal rule—an example of success | Jan. 2015, Box 3.3 |
| Narrow fiscal space and the risk of a debt crisis | Jan. 2015, Box 3.4 |
| Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: Implications for energy markets and activity | June 2022, Special Focus 2 |
| Commodity price cycles: Drivers and policies | Jan. 2022, Chapter 3 |
| Reforms after the 2014-16 oil price plunge | June 2020, Box 4.1 |
| Adding fuel to the fire: Cheap oil in the pandemic | June 2020, Chapter 4 |
| The role of major emerging markets in global commodity demand | June 2018, SF 1 |
| The role of the EM7 in commodity production | June 2018, Box SF1.1 |
| Commodity consumption: Implications of government policies | June 2018, Box SF1.2 |
| With the benefit of hindsight: The impact of the 2014–16 oil price collapse | Jan. 2018, SF 1 |
| From commodity discovery to production: Vulnerabilities and policies in LICs | Jan. 2016, SF |
| After the commodities boom: What next for low-income countries? | June 2015, SF 2 |
| Low oil prices in perspective | June 2015, Box 1.2 |
| Understanding the plunge in oil prices: Sources and implications | Jan. 2015, Chapter 4 |
| What do we know about the impact of oil prices on output and inflation? A brief survey | Jan. 2015, Box 4.1 |
Globalization of Trade and Financial Flows
| High trade costs: Causes and remedies | June 2021, Chapter 3 |
| The impact of COVID-19 on global value chains | June 2020, Box SF1 |
| Poverty impact of food price shocks and policies | Jan. 2019, Chapter 4 |
| Arm’s-Length trade: A source of post-crisis trade weakness | June 2017, SF 2 |
| The U.S. economy and the world | Jan. 2017, SF |
| Potential macroeconomic implications of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement | Jan. 2016, Chapter 4 |
| Regulatory convergence in mega-regional trade agreements | Jan. 2016, Box 4.1.1 |
| China’s integration in global supply chains: Review and implications | Jan. 2015, Box 2.1 |
| Can remittances help promote consumption stability? | Jan. 2015, Chapter 4 |
| What lies behind the global trade slowdown? | Jan. 2015, Chapter 4 |
Selected Other Publications on the Global Economy
Delfin S. Go
Global Inequality in a More Educated World (2017)
(with Syud Amer Ahmed, Maurizio Bussolo, Marcio Cruz, and Israel Osorio-Rodarte)
Assessing the Global Economic and Poverty Effects of Antimicrobial Resistance (2017)
(with Syud Amer Ahmed, Enis Barış, Hans Lofgren, Israel Osorio-Rodarte, and Karen Thierfelder)
China’s Slowdown and Rebalancing: Potential Growth and Poverty Impacts on Sub-Saharan Africa (2016)
(with Csilla Lakatos, Maryla Maliszewska, and Israel Osorio-Rodarte)
Global Migration Revisited: Short-Term Pains, Long-Term Gains, and the Potential of South-South Migration (2016)
(wtih S. Amer Ahmed and Dirk Willenbockel)
Estimating Parameters and Structural Change in CGE Models Using a Bayesian Cross-Entropy Estimation Approach (2015)
(with Hans Lofgren, Fabian Mendez Ramos, and Sherman Robinson)
How Significant Is Africa’s Demographic Dividend for Its Future Growth and Poverty Reduction? (2014)
(with S. Amer Ahmed, Marcio Cruz, Maryla Maliszewska, and Israel Osorio-Rodarte)
Israel Osorio-Rodarte
Global Inequality in a More Educated World (2017)
(with Syud Amer Ahmed, Maurizio Bussolo, Marcio Cruz, and Delfin S. Go)
Assessing the Global Economic and Poverty Effects of Antimicrobial Resistance (2017)
(with Syud Amer Ahmed, Enis Barış, Delfin S. Go, Hans Lofgren, and Karen Thierfelder)
China’s Slowdown and Rebalancing: Potential Growth and Poverty Impacts on Sub-Saharan Africa (2016)
(with Csilla Lakatos, Maryla Maliszewska, and Delfin Go)
A Product Space Perspective on Structural Change in Morocco (2015)
(with Hans Lofgren)
How Significant Is Africa’s Demographic Dividend for Its Future Growth and Poverty Reduction? (2014)
(with S. Amer Ahmed, Marcio Cruz, Delfin S. Go, and Maryla Maliszewska)
Israel Osorio-Rodarte
Global Inequality in a More Educated World (2017)
(with Syud Amer Ahmed, Maurizio Bussolo, Marcio Cruz, and Delfin S. Go)
Assessing the Global Economic and Poverty Effects of Antimicrobial Resistance (2017)
(with Syud Amer Ahmed, Enis Barış, Delfin S. Go, Hans Lofgren, and Karen Thierfelder)
China’s Slowdown and Rebalancing: Potential Growth and Poverty Impacts on Sub-Saharan Africa (2016)
(with Csilla Lakatos, Maryla Maliszewska, and Delfin Go)
A Product Space Perspective on Structural Change in Morocco (2015)
(with Hans Lofgren)
How Significant Is Africa’s Demographic Dividend for Its Future Growth and Poverty Reduction? (2014)
(with S. Amer Ahmed, Marcio Cruz, Delfin S. Go, and Maryla Maliszewska)
Israel Osorio-Rodarte
Global Inequality in a More Educated World (2017)
(with Syud Amer Ahmed, Maurizio Bussolo, Marcio Cruz, and Delfin S. Go)
Assessing the Global Economic and Poverty Effects of Antimicrobial Resistance (2017)
(with Syud Amer Ahmed, Enis Barış, Delfin S. Go, Hans Lofgren, and Karen Thierfelder)
China’s Slowdown and Rebalancing: Potential Growth and Poverty Impacts on Sub-Saharan Africa (2016)
(with Csilla Lakatos, Maryla Maliszewska, and Delfin Go)
A Product Space Perspective on Structural Change in Morocco (2015)
(with Hans Lofgren)
How Significant Is Africa’s Demographic Dividend for Its Future Growth and Poverty Reduction? (2014)
(with S. Amer Ahmed, Marcio Cruz, Delfin S. Go, and Maryla Maliszewska)
Israel Osorio-Rodarte
Global Inequality in a More Educated World (2017)
(with Syud Amer Ahmed, Maurizio Bussolo, Marcio Cruz, and Delfin S. Go)
Assessing the Global Economic and Poverty Effects of Antimicrobial Resistance (2017)
(with Syud Amer Ahmed, Enis Barış, Delfin S. Go, Hans Lofgren, and Karen Thierfelder)
China’s Slowdown and Rebalancing: Potential Growth and Poverty Impacts on Sub-Saharan Africa (2016)
(with Csilla Lakatos, Maryla Maliszewska, and Delfin Go)
A Product Space Perspective on Structural Change in Morocco (2015)
(with Hans Lofgren)
How Significant Is Africa’s Demographic Dividend for Its Future Growth and Poverty Reduction? (2014)
(with S. Amer Ahmed, Marcio Cruz, Delfin S. Go, and Maryla Maliszewska)
Israel Osorio-Rodarte
Global Inequality in a More Educated World (2017)
(with Syud Amer Ahmed, Maurizio Bussolo, Marcio Cruz, and Delfin S. Go)
Assessing the Global Economic and Poverty Effects of Antimicrobial Resistance (2017)
(with Syud Amer Ahmed, Enis Barış, Delfin S. Go, Hans Lofgren, and Karen Thierfelder)
China’s Slowdown and Rebalancing: Potential Growth and Poverty Impacts on Sub-Saharan Africa (2016)
(with Csilla Lakatos, Maryla Maliszewska, and Delfin Go)
A Product Space Perspective on Structural Change in Morocco (2015)
(with Hans Lofgren)
How Significant Is Africa’s Demographic Dividend for Its Future Growth and Poverty Reduction? (2014)
(with S. Amer Ahmed, Marcio Cruz, Delfin S. Go, and Maryla Maliszewska)
Jamus Jerome Lim
Do Fiscal Multipliers Depend on Fiscal Positions? (2016)
(with Raju Huidrom, M. Ayhan Kose, and Franziska L. Ohnsorge)
Capital Will Not Become More Expensive as the World Ages (2014)
(with Maurizio Bussolo, Maryla Maliszewska, and Hans Timmer)
Unconventional Monetary Policy Normalization in High-Income Countries Implications for Emerging Market Capital Flows and Crisis Risks (2014)
(with Andrew Burns, Mizuho Kida, Sanket Mohapatra, and Marc Stocker)
Tinker, Taper, QE, Bye? The Effect of Quantitative Easing on Financial Flows to Developing Countries (2014)
(with Sanket Mohapatra and Marc Stocker)
Jamus Jerome Lim
Do Fiscal Multipliers Depend on Fiscal Positions? (2016)
(with Raju Huidrom, M. Ayhan Kose, and Franziska L. Ohnsorge)
Capital Will Not Become More Expensive as the World Ages (2014)
(with Maurizio Bussolo, Maryla Maliszewska, and Hans Timmer)
Unconventional Monetary Policy Normalization in High-Income Countries Implications for Emerging Market Capital Flows and Crisis Risks (2014)
(with Andrew Burns, Mizuho Kida, Sanket Mohapatra, and Marc Stocker)
Tinker, Taper, QE, Bye? The Effect of Quantitative Easing on Financial Flows to Developing Countries (2014)
(with Sanket Mohapatra and Marc Stocker)