Prospects Group Working Papers - By Author

Prospect Group Policy Research Working Papers -- by Author
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Papers by current staff of the Development Prospects Group:

Agnolucci, Paolo
Arteta, Carlos
Baffes, John
Go, Delfin
Ha, Jongrim
Hill, Samual
Khadan, Jeetendra
Kenworthy, Philip 
Kose, M. Ayhan
Lebrand, Mathilde Sylvie Maria
Marioli, Francisco Arroyo
Mercer-Blackman,Valerie Anne
Mulabdic, Alen
Pallan, Hayley
Stamm, Kersten
Sugawara, Naotaka
Vasishtha, Garima
Vorisek, Dana
Wheeler, Collette
Zahid, Hamza

Paolo Agnolucci

Measuring Total Carbon Pricing (2023)

(with Carolyn Fischer, Dirk Heine, Mariza Montes de Oca Leon, Joseph Pryor, Kathleen Patroni, and Stéphane Hallegatte)

Carlos Arteta ^

How Do Rising U.S. Interest Rates Affect Emerging and Developing Economies? It Depends (2022)
(with Steven Kamin and Franz Ulrich Ruch)

Negative Interest Rate Policies: Sources and Implications (2016)
(with M. Ayhan Kose, Marc Stocker, and Temel Taskin) 

John Baffes ^

Commodity Price Shocks: Order within Chaos (2021)
(with Alain Ntumba)

Adding Fuel to the Fire: Cheap Oil during the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020)
(with Collette Mari Wheeler, Alain Kabundi, Gene Kindberg-Hanlon, Peter S. Nagle, and Franziska Ohnsorge)

The Role of Income and Substitution in Commodity Demand (2020)
(with Alain Kabundi and Peter Nagle)

The Role of Major Emerging Markets in Global Commodity Demand (2018)
(with Alain Kabundi, Peter Nagle, and Franziska Ohnsorge)

The 2014-16 Oil Price Collapse in Retrospect: Sources and Implications (2018)
(with Marc Stocker, Y. Modeste Some, Dana Vorisek, and Collette M. Wheeler)

What Explains Agricultural Price Movements? (2016)
(with Tassos Haniotis)

Analyzing Food Price Trends in the Context of Engel’s Law and the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis (2015)
(with Xiaoli L. Etienne)

Sources of Volatility during Four Oil Price Crashes (2015)
(with Varun Kshirsagar)

What Drives Local Food Prices? Evidence from the Tanzanian Maize Market (2015)
(with Varun Kshirsagar)

Long-Term Drivers of Food Prices (2013)

Cotton, Biotechnology, and Economic Development (2011)

Cotton Subsidies, the WTO, and the "Cotton Problem" (2011)

Placing the 2006/08 Commodity Price Boom into Perspective (2010)
(with Tassos Haniotis)

Markets for Cotton By-Products: Global Trends and Implications for African Cotton Producers (2010)

More on the Energy/Non-Energy Commodity Price Link (2009)

Oil Spills on Other Commodities (2007)

Restructuring Uganda’s Coffee Industry: Why Going Back to the Basics Matters (2006)

The Co-movement between Cotton and Polyester Prices (2005)
(with Gaston Gohou, University of Maryland)

Disciplining Agricultural Support through Decoupling (2005)
(with Harry de Gorter, Cornell University)

Cotton: Market Setting, Trade Policies, and Issues (2004)

Delfin S. Go ^

Trade Elasticities in Aggregate Models: Estimates for 191 Countries (2023)
(with Shantayanan Devarajan and Sherman Robinson)

Traders' Dilemma: Developing Countries' Response to Trade Disputes (2018)
(with Shantayanan Devarajan, Csilla Lakatos, Sherman Robinson, and Karen Thierfelder)

Assessing the Global Economic and Poverty Effects of Antimicrobial Resistance  (2017)
(with Syud Amer Ahmed, Enis Barış, Hans Lofgren, Israel Osorio-Rodarte, and Karen Thierfelder)

Global Inequality in a More Educated World (2017)
(with Syud Amer Ahmed, Maurizio Bussolo, Marcio Cruz, and Israel Osorio-Rodarte)

China’s Slowdown and Rebalancing: Potential Growth and Poverty Impacts on Sub-Saharan Africa (2016)
(with Csilla Lakatos, Maryla Maliszewska, and Israel Osorio-Rodarte) 

Estimating Parameters and Structural Change in CGE Models Using a Bayesian Cross-Entropy Estimation Approach (2015)
(with Hans Lofgren, Fabian Mendez Ramos, and Sherman Robinson) 

How Significant is Africa's Demographic Dividend for Its Future Growth and Poverty Reduction (2014)
(with S. Amer Ahmed, Marcio Cruz, Maryla Maliszewska, and Israel Osorio-Rodarte)

Jongrim Ha ^

Rate Cycles (2024)
(with Kristin J. Forbes and Ayhan Kose)

Capital Controls in Emerging and Developing Economies and the Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy (2023)
(with Haiqin Liu and John Rogers)

What Explains Global Inflation (2023)
(with M. Ayhan Kose, Franziska Ohnsorge, and Hakan Yilmazkuday)

Understanding the Global Drivers of Inflation: How Important Are Oil Prices? (2023)
(with M. Ayhan Kose, Franziska Ohnsorge, and Hakan Yilmazkuday) 

One-Stop Source: A Global Database of Inflation (2021)
(with M. Ayhan Kose and Franziska Ohnsorge)

Inflation in Low-Income Countries (2019)
(with Anna Ivanova, Peter J. Montiel, and Peter Louis Pedroni)

Inflation and Exchange Rate Pass-Through (2019)
(with Marc Stocker and Hakan Yilmazkuday)

Global Inflation Synchronization (2019)
(with M. Ayhan Kose and Franziska Ohnsorge)

Understanding Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies (2019)
(with M. Ayhan Kose and Franziska Lieselotte Ohnsorge)

Inflation: Concepts, Evolution, and Correlates (2019)
(with Anna Ivanova, Franziska Ohnsorge, and Derya Filiz Unsal Portillo Ocando)

Hill, Samual ^

Fiscal Challenges in Small States: Weathering Storms, Rebuilding Resilience (2024)
(with Jeetendra Khadan)

Khadan, Jeetendra ^

Fiscal Challenges in Small States: Weathering Storms, Rebuilding Resilience (2024)
(with Samual Hill)

Forecasting Industrial Commodity Prices: Literature Review and a Model Suite (2023)
(with Francisco Arroyo-Marioli, Franziska Ohnsorge, and Takefumi Yamazaki)

Philip Kenworthy ^

Investment in Emerging Market and Developing Economy Regions: Trends, Prospects, and Policy Options (2023)
(with Sergiy Kasyanenko, Franz Ulrich Ruch, Ekaterine Vashakmadze, Dana Vorisek, and Collette Wheeler) 

The Past and Future of Regional Potential Growth: Hopes, Fears, and Realities (2023)
(with Sergiy Kasyanenko, Sinem Kilic Celik, Franz Ulrich Ruch, Ekaterine Vashakmadze, and Collette Wheeler) 

M. Ayhan Kose ^

Rate Cycles (2024)
(with Jongrim Ha and Kristin J. Forbes)

What Explains Global Inflation (2023)
(with Jongrim Ha, Franziska Ohnsorge, and Hakan Yilmazkuday)

Understanding the Global Drivers of Inflation: How Important Are Oil Prices? (2023)
(with Jongrim Ha, Franziska Ohnsorge, and Hakan Yilmazkuday) 

Potential Growth: A Global Database (2023)
(with Sinem Kilic Celik, F. Ohnsorge, and F. Ulrich Ruch)

Potential Growth Prospects: Risks, Rewards, and Policies (2023)
(with Sinem Kilic Celik, and Franziska Ohnsorge)

What Has Been the Impact of COVID-19 on Debt? Turning a Wave into a Tsunami (2021)
(with Peter Nagle, Franziska Ohnsorge, and Naotaka Sugawara)

What Types of Capital Flows Help Improve International Risk Sharing? (2021)
(with Ergys Islamaj)

A Mountain of Debt: Navigating the Legacy of the Pandemic (2021)
(with Franziska Ohnsorge and Naotaka Sugawara)

The Aftermath of Debt Surges (2021)
(with Franziska Ohnsorge, Carmen Reinhart, and Kenneth Rogoff)

One-Stop Source: A Global Database of Inflation (2021)
(with Jongrim Ha and Franziska Ohnsorge)

Can This Time Be Different? Policy Options in Times of Rising Debt (2020)
(with Peter Nagle, Franziska Ohnsorge, and Naotaka Sugawara)

Subdued Potential Growth: Sources and Remedies (2020)
(with Sinem Kilic Celik and Franziska Ohnsorge)

Global Recessions (2020)
(with Naotaka Sugawara and Marco E. Terrones)

Benefits and Costs of Debt: The Dose Makes the Poison (2020)
(with Franziska Ohnsorge and Naotaka Sugawara)

Emerging and Developing Economies: Ten Years after the Global Recession (2020)
(with Franziska Ohnsorge)

Debt and Financial Crises (2020)
(with Wee Chian Koh, Peter S. Nagle, Franziska Ohnsorge, and Naotaka Sugawara)

Inflation Expectations: Review and Evidence (2019)
(with Hideaki Matsuoka, Ugo G. Panizza, and Dana Lauren Vorisek)

Why Do Fiscal Multipliers Depend on Fiscal Positions? (2019)
(with Raju Huidrom, Jamus Jerome Lim, and Franziska Ohnsorge) 

Global Inflation Synchronization (2019)
(with Jongrim Ha and Franziska Ohnsorge)

Understanding Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies (2019)
(with Jongrim Ha and Franziska Ohnsorge)

Asset Prices and Macroeconomic Outcomes: A Survey (2017)
(with Stijn Claessens) 

Macroeconomic Implications of Financial Imperfections: A Survey (2017)
(with Stijn Claessens)

A Cross-Country Database of Fiscal Space (2017)
(with Sergio Kurlat, Franziska Ohnsorge, and Naotaka Sugawara)

How Important are Spillovers from Major Emerging Markets? (2017)
(with Raju Huidrom and Franziska Ohnsorge)

Weakness in Investment Growth: Causes, Implications and Policy Responses (2017)
(with Franziska Ohnsorge, Lei Sandy Ye, and Ergys Islamaj

The Global Role of the U.S. Economy: Linkages, Policies and Spillovers (2017)
(with Csilla Lakatos, Franziska Ohnsorge, and Marc Stocker)

Negative Interest Rate Policies: Sources and Implications (2016)
(with Carlos Arteta, Marc Stocker, and Temel Taskin) 

Do Fiscal Multipliers Depend on Fiscal Positions? (2016)
(with Raju Huidrom, Jamus J. Lim, and Franziska Ohnsorge)

Challenges of Fiscal Policy in Emerging and Developing Economies (2016)
(with Raju Huidrom and Franziska Ohnsorge)

How Does the Sensitivity of Consumption to Income Vary Over Time? International Evidence (2016)
(with Ergys Islamaj)

Mathilde Sylvie Maria Lebrand ^

Energy Price Shocks and Current Account Balances: Evidence from Emerging Market and Developing Economies (2023)
(with Garima Vasishtha and Hakan Yilmazkuday)

Infrastructure Matters: Complementarities with the Quality of Health Service Delivery in Kenya (2022)
(with Laura Becerra Luna, Nino Pkhikidze and Andres Yi Chang)

Rising Incomes, Transport Demand, and Sector Decarbonization (2022)
(with Ewane Theophile)

Roads, Electricity, and Jobs: Evidence of Infrastructure Complementarity in Sub-Saharan Africa (2022)
(with Mansoureh Abbasi, Arcady Bluette Mongoue, Roland Pongou, and Fan Zhang)

Improving Multi-Topic Household Surveys for Better Transport Policy Analysis (2022)
(with Qiuyan Yin)

Infrastructure and Structural Change in the Lake Chad Region (2022)

Infrastructure and Structural Change in the Horn of Africa (2021)
(with Matías Herrera Dappe)

Corridors without Borders in West Africa (2021)

The Evolution of City Form: Evidence from Satellite Data (2021)
(with Somik V. Lall, and Maria Edisa Soppelsa)

Bridging Bangladesh and India: Cross-Border Trade and the Motor Vehicles Agreement (2021)
(with Matías Herrera Dappe and Diana Van Patten)

Feeling Poor, Feeling Rich, or Feeling Middle-Class: An Empirical Investigation (2020)
(with Maurizio Bussolo and Iván Torre)

Who Wins, Who Loses Understanding the Spatially Differentiated Effects of the Belt and Road Initiative (2019)
(with Somik V. Lall)

The Belt and Road Initiative: Reshaping Economic Geography in Central Asia (2019)
(with Julia Bird and Anthony J. Venables)

Francisco Arroyo Marioli ^

Forecasting Industrial Commodity Prices: Literature Review and a Model Suite (2023)
(with Jeetendra Khadan, Franziska Ohnsorge, and Takefumi Yamazaki)

Fiscal Procyclicality in Commodity Exporting Countries: How Much Does It Pour and Why? (2023)
(with Carlos A. Vegh)

Fiscal Policy Volatility and Growth in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies (2023)
(with Antonio Fatás and and Garima Vasishtha)

Valerie Anne Mercer-Blackman ^

Are Carbon Taxes Good for South Asia? (2023)
(with Lazar Milivojevic and Victor Mylonas)

Understanding FDI Spillovers in the Presence of GVCs (2023)
(with Wei Xiang and Fahad Khan) 

Alen Mulabdic ^

Is US Trade Policy Reshaping Global Supply Chains? (2023)
(with Caroline Freund, Aaditya Mattoo, and Michele Ruta)

Natural Disasters and the Reshaping of Global Value Chains (2021)
(with Caroline Freund, Aaditya Mattoo, and Michele Ruta)

Trade Barriers in Government Procurement (2021)
(with Lorenzo Rotunno)

Gravity Model–Based Export Potential: An Application to Turkey (2021)
(with Pinar Yasar)

Third-Country Effects of Regional Trade Agreements: A Firm-Level Analysis (2019)
(with Woori Lee and Michele Ruta)

Is 3D Printing a Threat to Global Trade? The Trade Effects You Didn't Hear About (2019)
(with Caroline Freund and Michele Ruta)

Common Transport Infrastructure: A Quantitative Model and Estimates from the Belt and Road Initiative (2019)
(with Francois de Soyres and Michele Ruta)

Are Banks Engines of Export Financial Structures and Export Dynamics? (2018)
(with Raoul Minetti, Michele Ruta, and Susan Zhu)

How Much Will the Belt and Road Initiative Reduce Trade Costs (2018)
(with Francois de Soyres, Siobhan Murray, Nadia Rocha, and Michele Ruta)

Trade Creation and Trade Diversion in Deep Agreements (2017)
(with Aaditya Mattoo and Michele Ruta)

Deep Integration and UK-EU Trade Relations (2017)
(with Alberto Osnago and Michele Ruta)

Trade and Civil Conflict: Revisiting the Cross-country Evidence (2014)
(with Massimiliano Cali)

Hayley Pallan ^

International Tax Spillovers and Tangible Investment, with Implications for the Global Minimum Tax (2023)
(with Michael Keen and Li Liu)

The Elusive Link Between FDI and Economic Growth (2023)
(with Agustín Bénétrix and Ugo Panizza)

Kersten Keven Stamm ^

Identifying Growth Accelerations (2024)
(with Bram Gootjes, Jakob De Haan, and Shu Yu)

The Global Investment Slowdown: Challenges and Policies (2023)
(with Dana Vorisek)

Global Job Quality: Evidence from Wage Employment across Developing Countries (2022)
(with Shoghik Hovhannisyan, Veronica Montalva-Talledo, Tyler Remick, and Carlos Rodríguez-Castelán)

Sectoral Value Added — Electricity Elasticities across Countries (2021)
(with Shoghik Hovhannisyan)

Naotaka Sugawara ^

What Has Been the Impact of COVID-19 on Debt? Turning a Wave into a Tsunami (2021)
(with M. Ayhan Kose, Peter Nagle, and Franziska Ohnsorge)

A Mountain of Debt: Navigating the Legacy of the Pandemic (2021)
(with M. Ayhan Kose and Franziska Ohnsorge)

Can This Time Be Different? Policy Options in Times of Rising Debt (2020)
(with M. Ayhan Kose, Peter S.O. Nagle, and Franziska Ohnsorge)

Global Recessions (2020)
(with M. Ayhan Kose and and Marco E. Terrones)

Benefits and Costs of Debt: The Dose Makes the Poison (2020)
(with M. Ayhan Kose and Franziska Ohnsorge)

Debt and Financial Crises (2020)
(with Wee Chian Koh, M. Ayhan Kose, Peter S. Nagle, and Franziska Ohnsorge)

Fiscal Space: Concept, Measurement, and Policy Implications (2018)
(with M. Ayhan Kose and Franziska Ohnsorge)

A Cross-Country Database of Fiscal Space (2017)
(with M. Ayhan Kose, Sergio Kurlat, and Franziska Ohnsorge)

Credit-less Recoveries: Neither a Rare Nor an Insurmountable Challenge (2013)
(with Juan Zalduendo)

Stress-testing Croatian Households With Debt -- Implications for Financial Stability (2011)
(with Juan Zalduendo)

Banking Flows and Financial Crisis -- Financial Interconnectedness and Basel III Effects (2011)
(with Juan Zalduendo)

Finding a Balance Between Growth and Vulnerability Trade-offs: Lessons from Emerging Europe and the CIS (2011)
(with Swati Ghosh and Juan Zalduendo)

Informality in Latin America and the Caribbean (2009)
(with Norman Loayza and Luis Serven)

Garima Vasishtha ^

Energy Price Shocks and Current Account Balances: Evidence from Emerging Market and Developing Economies (2023)
(with Mathilde Lebrand, Garima Vasishtha, and Hakan Yilmazkuday)

Fiscal Policy Volatility and Growth in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies (2023)
(with Francisco Arroyo Marioli and Antonio Fatás)

Dana Vorisek ^

Digitalization and Inclusive Growth: A Review of the Evidence (2024)
(with Gaurav Nayyar, Regina Pleninger, and Shu Yu)

Investment in Emerging Market and Developing Economy Regions: Trends, Prospects, and Policy Options (2023)
(with Sergiy Kasyanenko, Philip Kenworthy, Franz Ulrich Ruch, Ekaterine Vashakmadze, and Collette Wheeler) 

The Global Investment Slowdown: Challenges and Policies (2023)
(with Kersten Stamm)

Understanding the Cost of Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (2020)
(with Shu Yu)

Inflation Expectations: Review and Evidence (2019)
(with M. Ayhan Kose, Hideaki Matsuoka, and Ugo G. Panizza)

The 2014-16 Oil Price Collapse in Retrospect: Sources and Implications (2018)
(with Marc Stocker, John Baffes, Y. Modeste Some, and Collette M. Wheeler)

Regional Dimensions of Recent Weakness in Investment: Drivers, Investment Needs and Policy Responses (2017)
(with Gerard Kambou, Derek Chen, Boaz Nandwa, Yoki Okawa, and Ekaterine Vashakmadze)

Collette M. Wheeler ^

Investment in Emerging Market and Developing Economy Regions: Trends, Prospects, and Policy Options (2023)
(with Sergiy Kasyanenko, Philip Kenworthy, Franz Ulrich Ruch, Ekaterine Vashakmadze, and Dana Vorisek) 

The Past and Future of Regional Potential Growth: Hopes, Fears, and Realities (2023)
(with Sergiy Kasyanenko, Philip Kenworthy, Sinem Kilic Celik, Franz Ulrich Ruch, and Ekaterine Vashakmadze) 

Adding Fuel to the Fire: Cheap Oil during the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020)
(with John Baffes, Alain Kabundi, Gene Kindberg-Hanlon, Peter S. Nagle, and Franziska Ohnsorge)

The 2014-16 Oil Price Collapse in Retrospect: Sources and Implications (2018)
(with Marc Stocker, John Baffes, Y. Modeste Some, and Dana Vorisek)

Hamza Zahid ^

Commodity Price Cycles: Commonalities, Heterogeneities, and Drivers (2023)
(with Alain Kabundi)

Global Footprints of U.S. Energy Innovations: Energy Efficiency and the Shale Revolution (2023)

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Last Updated: Oct 31, 2024