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  • Tunisia

    Can Nature-Based Solution be the Panacea to the Looming Crisis of Climate Change Induced Water Scarcity in Tunisia?

    Despite Tunisia’s efforts in water management, the per capita water availability remained low at only 395 cubic meters (m³) in 2021, falling below the absolute water scarcity threshold of 500 m³ (FAO, 2021). As of 2019, Tunisia had already been among the highest-ranking countries in terms of water stress, evidenced by the significant proportion of freshwater withdrawal compared to available resources. Ecosystems, particularly forests, play a crucial role in providing freshwater and protecting water reservoirs from siltation. However, these reservoirs face challenges from soil erosion and sediment export, with an average accumulation rate of 22.59 percent in 2021 (MARHP, 2022). The country's susceptibility to droughts and water scarcity is compounded by its semi-arid climate and vulnerability to climate change (NWSR, 2020). Climate changes is expected to further reduce water resources, intensify erosion, and worsen land degradation due to decrease in rainfall, higher temperatures, and greater evapotranspiration rates (Abouabdillah et al., 2014). Furthermore, Tunisia's heavy reliance on groundwater exacerbates these challenges. While government initiatives aimed at tackling these issues are appreciated, innovative solutions  will be imperative to ensure the long-term sustainability of water resources in a changing climate in Tunisia.

    Assessment of water ecosystem services: InVEST Seasonal Water Yield (SWY)

    The SWY Model uses a simplified approach that differentiates between two types of flow: quick flow and baseflow. The baseflow is water that reaches groundwater system during in between rain events or during the dry season and has residence times of months or even years. Base flow depends on precipitation depth, the number of precipitation events in each month and the curve number or runoff (CN). CN is assigned to each land cover class and used to convert rainfall to runoff for these different classes. The model takes several inputs to estimate water yield, including rainfall, digital elevation model, soil types and properties, hydrological data, observed runoff and a land cover map. After calibration, the model simulated climate change scenarios (SSP) and proposes adaptation measures: nature-based solutions such as afforestation, water and soil conservation techniques, and agroforestry. Two levels of intervention were considered “intermediate measures” and “maximum measures” based on the surface area of intervention.

    Water availability under climate change and management scenarios

    Ground water recharge

    In SSP2 climate scenario with no measure (BAU), the groundwater recharge is predicted to decrease by 25%, compared to the baseline. However, with intermediate and maximum measures of land management, the groundwater recharge is predicted to increase by 30% and 52%, respectively compared to BAU scenario. In the SSP3 Scenario horizon 2050, there is an expected considerable decline of 32% in groundwater recharge when no land management measures are employed. However, the implementation of intermediate and maximum land management measures is predicted to yield an increase of 19% and 22%, respectively, in groundwater recharge.

    Surface water regulation

    In the SSP2 scenario horizon 2050, the water base flow is expected to decrease to 157.7 m3/ha in the BAU scenario, a reduction of 21.8% from the current state. However, with intermediate and maximum land management measures, this flow is expected to increase to 24% and 37%, respectively compared to BAU scenario.

    In the SSP3 scenario horizon 2050, the absence of any land management measures is projected to cause a significant decline in base flow to 151.2 m3/ha, which is substantially lower than the current situation. With intermediate and maximum land management measures in place, the base flow is expected to increase by 15.4% and 17.2%, respectively, compared to the BAU scenario.

    The observed decrease in water base flow and recharge for SSP2 and SSP3 is likely due to increased temperatures, reduced precipitation, and landscape degradation. This highlights the need for urgent and effective climate change mitigation and adaptation measures to reduce the adverse impacts of climate change on water resources.

    In this current study, we have explored Nature-based Solutions (NBS) for intermediate and high-level management, including techniques such as afforestation, water and soil conservation methods, and agroforestry. These approaches are integral in bolstering water availability through diverse mechanisms. They aid in boosting the soil's water retention capacity, thereby reducing surface runoff and promoting the infiltration of water into the ground. Consequently, this process replenishes groundwater reservoirs and sustains streamflow, particularly during arid periods.

    Furthermore, NBS contribute significantly to groundwater recharge by facilitating water percolation through the soil, effectively replenishing aquifers. This is of supreme importance in areas heavily reliant on groundwater for both drinking water and agricultural irrigation.

    Recommendations

    Based on the modeling and assessment of hydrological ecosystem services associated with landscape management in Tunisia, the following recommendations and policy implications, in line with its NDCs, can be emitted:

    Identifying and prioritizing degraded areas: we recommend using remote sensing and GIS tools to identify areas with high soil erosion and natural vegetation degradation. These areas can then be prioritized for interventions to restore ecosystem services.

    Investment in NBS Implementation: Allocate resources and funding towards the implementation of nature-based solutions such as afforestation, soil conservation techniques, and agroforestry. These practices can significantly enhance water availability while also mitigating the impacts of climate change on water resources.

    Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM): Adopt an integrated approach to water resource management that considers the interconnectedness of surface water and groundwater systems. Implement policies and strategies that promote sustainable use and allocation of water resources while also protecting ecosystems that provide important water-related services.

    References

    FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization) Aquastat data

    Tunisia Ministry of Agriculture, Water Resources and Fisheries. 2022. “Phase 5 Report of the Water 2050 Study.”

    Abouabdillah, A., White, M., Arnold, J.F., De Girolamo, A.M., Oueslati, O., Maataoui, A., Lo Porto, A. (2014). Evaluation of soil and water conservation measures in a semiarid river basin in Tunisia using SWAT. Soil Use and Management. https://doi.org/10.1111/sum.12146.

     NWSR : National Water Sector Report (2020). The Minister of Agriculture, Water Resources and Fisheries, Office of Planning and Hydraulic Balances

     

    Water in Tunisia

     

    Water Tunisia

     

    Water Tunisia

     

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    Country Context 

     NCA in Ghana Factsheet, June 2023

     

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    Ghana, a country in West Africa with a population of 31.71 million people in 2020, has achieved remarkable success in economic growth over the past two decades. Though the economic structure is shifting to services, 35–45 percent of jobs are still based on renewable natural resource sectors, including agriculture, forestry, livestock, and fisheries. It is noteworthy that Ghana’s adjusted net savings has been negative since 2007 despite a simultaneous increase in the stock of nonrenewable capital. Integrating natural capital in policy planning and implementation will be crucial to Ghana’s transition to a more inclusive, sustainable, climate-resilient and green economy.

    The World Bank’s new Country Partnership Framework (CPF) FY 2022-2026 has three focus areas: (1) enhancing conditions for private sector development and quality job creation, (2) improving inclusive service delivery, and (3) promoting resilient and sustainable development. Recently, the World Bank initiated the investment project Ghana Landscape Restoration and Small-Scale Mining Project (GLRSSMP) which will support a landscape approach to improve management and economic productivity of forested ecosystems in the targeted landscapes.
     

    Objectives of GPS Support

    To strengthen capacity for measuring and valuing natural capital and ecosystem services, and to use that information for policy, development, and investment planning in Ghana, as well as informing the GLRSSMP.
     

    Key Country Partners

    Key country counterparts are the Environment Protection Agency (EPA), the National Development Planning Commission (NDPC), the Ghana Statistical Service (GSS), and the Ministry of Finance.
     

    Expected Impacts

    By the time implementation of the GPS grant is completed, it is expected that the following results will have been achieved:

    • Accounts for (1) land and ecosystem extent, and (2) ecosystem services will have been developed, and capacity built to sustain production of the accounts.
    • The accounts will have been used to support Ghana’s bid to develop payments for ecosystem services schemes and to prioritize ecosystem restoration areas both for the GLRSSMP and national landscape regulation.
    • Environmentally adjusted macroeconomic indicators (Adjusted Net Savings and Adjusted Net National Income) will be integrated into the National Medium Development Policy framework.
    • Information from the accounts will have been used in the update of the NBSAP and inform the environment and forestry sector medium-term policy frameworks.


    Progress Made in FY22

    The detailed scope of work has been defined through two World Bank and UNSD missions and reflected in a Theory of Change for the CIC Ghana grant. Country Coordinators have been appointed from the three key agencies (EPA, NDPC and GSS). They chair a Technical Working Group (TWG) that leads the overall Ghana NCA program. Overall direction will be provided by the Steering Committee of the GLRSSMP, headed by the Ministry of Lands and Natural Resources (MLNR) and the Ministry of Environment, Science, Technology and Innovation (MESTI). Focal points have been identified at other key ministries, such as the Ministry of Finance, the Forestry Commission and Lands Commission. Sub-Working Groups (TWGs) for land and ecosystem extent accounts, ecosystem services accounts and adjusted macro-indicators have been formed. Development of land and ecosystem extent accounts as well as adjusted macro indicators have started, including capacity building activities both during missions and virtually. A core group participated in a training on biophysical modelling for ecosystem accounting (ARIES for SEEA) in Kigali, Rwanda, in June 2022, held by UNSD and UN Environment Program. A facilitator and a communications expert were hired to support the program locally.


    Key Activities Planned for FY23

    Capacity building and development of the selected accounts will continue. It is envisaged that the land and ecosystem extent accounts will be finalized, as well as the adjusted macro indicators. These accounts will be launched at the planned National NCA Forum, targeting decision and policy makers, tentatively scheduled for May 2023. Initial analysis using biophysical modelling to inform landscape interventions will be performed with support from UNSD. Two missions with technical trainings will be held, as well as monthly virtual meetings with the sub-working groups. A communications strategy and action plan will be developed. Its implementation will start with showcasing some of the activities in the GPS newsletter. As part of the GPS seminar series, Ghana held a webinar in October 2022 to present the program.  A second webinar, to be held in 2023, will showcase initial results.

  • Country Context

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    Ethiopia is one of the world’s poorest countries but has achieved substantial progress in economic, social, and human development over the past decade. Though development in the country has recently been challenged by conflict and low resilience to shocks, a recent peace deal offers an opportunity to rebuild at all levels and promote development goals. Ethiopia aims to build a green economy and to follow a green growth path that fosters sustainable development. Through the development of its Climate-Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) strategy based on carbon-neutral growth, Ethiopia envisions attaining middle-income status by 2025. Within the framework of the CRGE Strategy, natural resource conservation and use include targets for the rehabilitation and sustainable management of watersheds, the conservation of biodiversity, and expanded provision of land use certificates, as well as the development of climate resilient agriculture, including promotion of climate-resilient crop species.

    The World Bank’s Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for FY 18-22 includes (as part of Focus Area 2 - Building Resilience and Inclusiveness), the objective to enhance management of natural resources and mitigate climate risks. In line with that, the World Bank is currently financing two landscape projects: the Resilient Landscapes and Livelihoods Project (RLLP) and the recently approved Climate Action Through Landscape Management Program for Results (CALM). The RLLP project, a successor to the successful Sustainable Land Management I and II Projects, aims to improve climate resilience, land productivity and carbon storage, and increase access to diversified livelihood activities in selected rural watersheds.


    Objectives of GPS Support

    The GPS activity is part of the Ethiopia Resilient and Green Development Programmatic ASA (ERGD PASA), which aims to deepen knowledge and strengthen capacity to support climate resilient and low carbon policies and programs in Ethiopia. GPS support will contribute to the ERGD PASA (and to the broader objectives of the CPF), through supporting the development of natural capital accounts and integration of natural capital into policy decisions.


    Key Country Partners

    The lead agency for the ERGD PASA is the Ministry of Planning and Development. Other key stakeholders are the Ministry of Agriculture, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Water and Energy and associated agencies such as the Ethiopian Statistical Services, the National Accounts Directorate, the Environmental Protection Agency, the Policy Studies Institute, the Ethiopia Biodiversity Institute and the Ethiopian Space Science and Technology Institute.


    Expected Impacts

    By the time implementation of the GPS grant is completed, it is expected that the following results will have been achieved:

    • Land, ecosystem extent and ecosystem services accounts are developed.
    • Using accounts data, a tool for prioritizing landscape investments is developed, which will inform the Ethiopia Sustainable Land Management Investment Framework (ESIF).
    • GPS-supported data and analysis will inform the design and implementation of Ethiopia’s Payment for Ecosystem Services Proclamation.
    • Accounts are used to derive indicators for Ethiopia's 10-year development plan and NDCs.
    • The Government of Ethiopia (GoE) will increase its capacity to produce NCA and use the investment prioritization tool.
    • The CALM and RLLP projects and the CCDR for Ethiopia will be informed.


    Progress Made in FY22

    Compared to the other CIC countries, progress Ethiopia was to some extent constrained by the security situation in the country, with in-person missions resuming only in the later part of the fiscal year. A country coordinator was hired to manage contacts with the government and prepare for a scoping mission held in September 2022. Initial consultations have been held with key stakeholders.


    Key Activities Planned for FY23

    Broad stakeholder consultations will be conducted during a scoping mission in collaboration with UNSD, leading to a confirmation of the scope of work and an agreed Theory of Change for the activity. Institutional arrangements will be put in place, including focal points for key agencies and the formation of technical working groups. A launch workshop including key stakeholders will be held. Plans for the various work streams will be developed. A data and institutional assessment will be done by a local consultant under guidance of UNSD and WB, expected to be finalized in January 2023. In connection with the work on developing PES schemes, the team will also provide input to the draft regulation on Payment for Ecosystem Services, which will be done during the first half of the fiscal year. Training and development of land and ecosystem accounts as well as the investment prioritization tool will be started in the second half of FY23, both virtually and during a first implementation mission.


  • Country Context

    Nepal

     

    Forests are among the highest development priorities for Nepal. The Government of Nepal (GoN) has committed to maintaining 45 percent of Nepal's forest cover in its most recent NDCs, while increasing its contribution towards national income, in line with Green, Resilient, Inclusive Development (GRID) principles. Nepal is transitioning toward federalism in the forest sector[1], including management of the asset and sharing of fiscal revenues to support it.

    Consequently, data and analytics on forest conditions at sub-national levels is important for informing forest management plans and implementing revenue-sharing. GoN’s Forest Research and Training Centre (FRTC; under the Ministry of Forests and Environment - MoFE) estimates that about 41.7 percent of Nepal’s land area in 2019 was under forests.[2]  This area was estimated through remote-sensing data that minimizes measurement error at the national level. Therefore, it cannot be disaggregated to produce reliable estimates at the provincial and municipal level on which to base forest management plans and implement forest revenue sharing, as attempting to do so would produce estimates with significant non-systematic and non-classical measurement error.

    Understanding the economic contributions of forests at the national level is important for strengthening national forest policy to secure livelihoods, income generation and sustenance[3]. The number of forest-dependent households; the contribution of forests to household livelihoods and incomes; threats to forest incomes and livelihood; and the role of gender, caste and social identity in mediating access to benefits from forests are inadequately understood. Such information is currently not generated by MoFE or the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS). Filling this gap is important for prioritizing restoration and equity in natural resource management and supporting inter-ministerial dialogues and strategic planning at the national level.

    Finally, supporting forest management plans and revenue sharing are important for successful implementation of The World Bank’s Green, Resilient, Inclusive Development (GRID) Advisory Program in Nepal. Under GRID, forest projects in Nepal financed by the World Bank (ERPA, Forests for Prosperity) will be informed by insights on forest conditions and the opportunities, challenges and inequities associated with forest-based livelihoods and incomes in Nepal. The GRID program provides an overall strategic framework of engagement for the GPS grant, which will contribute essential data and analytical foundations for GRID’s success.


    Objectives of GPS Support

    The GPS supported work will generate data and analytics that (1) MoFE needs to implement sustainable forest management plans, and (2) the National Natural Resources Financial Commission (NNRFC) needs from MoFE to implement forest-related revenue sharing in Nepal.


    Key Country Partners

    The ASA team is working with the Ministry of Forests and Environment, Forest Research and Training Centre (MoFE), NNRFC (under the National Planning Commission), and CBS.  Data and analytics are being coproduced with FRTC and CBS, the agencies with an official mandate to create biophysical and socioeconomic forest statistics, respectively. In addition, the ASA team is working with ICIMOD and the CGIAR (research organizations).


    Expected Impacts

    By the time implementation of the GPS grant is completed, it is expected that the following results will have been achieved:

    • Data and indicators on forest extent and condition and on forest dependency will be generated and made publicly accessible.
    • MoFE has an improved understanding of forest dependency, incomes, livelihoods and safety nets in Nepal, as mediated by gender, caste and social identity.
    • Data and/or analysis on natural capital and ecosystem services are used in the design, and/or implementation, and/or evaluation of programs and projects co-financed by the World Bank, including, in particular, the Forests for Prosperity project and the Emission Reduction Purchase Agreement (ERPA).
    • GPS work informs policy processes and decisions, such as updating the fiscal transfer formula applied by the NNRFC and the production of provincial and municipal sustainable forest management plans.


    Progress Made in FY22

    • Focal points have been appointed by CBS and FRTC to lead activities with the ASA team.
    • Work programs (technical and administrative) for generation of biophysical forest statistics and socioeconomic forest data have been finalized and approved by MoFE, FRTC and CBS.
    • Procurement for all work programs is underway.


    Key Activities Planned for FY23

    • Inception workshop and training workshops are planned for Jan-Mar 2023.
    • Socioeconomic data collection will be completed by June 2023.
    • Biophysical data generation will be completed by December 2023.

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    [1] Forest management responsibilities are now constitutionally shared between federal, provincial, and municipal governments (Schedules 6-9 of the Constitution of Nepal, 2015). At the same time, revenues collected by federal governments from forests (timber sales, royalties etc.) are also constitutionally required to be shared with provincial and municipal governments using a sharing formula (Article 251 of the Constitution of Nepal, 2015). In keeping with constitutional federalism, the Forest Policy and Act authorize provincial governments to sustainably manage national forests within their jurisdiction and empower municipal governments to play a key role in the operation and sustainable management of community managed forests, private forests, agroforestry and forest-based enterprises within their jurisdiction. Building on this, the recent 2022 Forest Regulation aims to fortify the governance framework at all three tiers of government for better and inclusive sustainable forest management (SFM) planning and implementation; and provides clarity on the handover process of forest areas to community user groups, including vulnerable groups, women, and indigenous people

    [2] FRTC. 2022. National Land Cover Monitoring System of Nepal. Kathmandu, Nepal.

    [3] According to NNRFC, the forestry sector contributed $15.5 million in revenue in 2020/21, which was 29 percent of the total revenue from natural resources. These revenues are transferred in a proportionate ratio – federal (50 percent), province and municipal (25 percent each). NNRFC does not have data on income from community forests.


  • Country Context

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    Türkiye has moved swiftly to green its national policies following the ratification of the Paris Agreement in October 2021, committing to net zero emissions by 2053 and strengthening institutional arrangements for climate change issues. It has drafted and updated important policy documents such as the Climate Law, National Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP), and added climate change to the responsibilities of the Ministry of Environment and Urbanization (now Ministry of Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change, MoEUCC). In July 2021, the Ministry of Trade (MOT) released the Green Deal Action Plan (GDAP) which was approved through Presidential Circular No2021/15 to help Türkiye transition to a sustainable and resource-efficient circular economy by providing a roadmap aimed at supporting the green transition in all relevant policy areas. The GDAP aims for harmonization with the principles and regulations adopted under the European Green Deal (EGD) in order to continue the process of integrating Türkiye within the scope of the EU Customs Union. In February 2022, the MoEUCC organized the first national Climate Council and set forward major decisions in line with Türkiye's 2053 net zero emissions and low carbon development.

    In this context, GPS engagement is expected to provide relevant data that will inform the design of policies and action plans for Türkiye’s green transition. The work is expected to inform national policies and strategies (such as the National Development Plan) by providing a framework for measuring and valuing the contributions of natural capital and identifying the interlinkages between the economy and environmental resources. This will support Türkiye’s transition to a sustainable and resource-efficient economy and consolidate its position as a key trade partner to the European Union (EU).


    Objectives of GPS Support

    The objective is to generate knowledge and inform policy dialogues on green growth through strengthening capacities for the use of natural capital data (including accounts) in investments and policies, and to support the transition to a circular economy.


    Key Country Partners

    • Ministry of Treasury and Finance (MoTF)
    • Revenue Administration
    • Türkiye Statistical Institute (TurkStat)
    • Strategy and Budget Office (SBO)
    • Line Ministries (Ministry of Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change; Ministry of Industry and Technology; Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry; Ministry of Trade)
    • Local government and service providers (municipalities, municipal service authorities and provincial administrations)
    • The business community (e.g., Turkish Industry & Business Association - TUSIAD, International Investors Association - YASED)


    Expected Impacts

    By the time implementation of the GPS grant is completed, it is expected that the following results will have been achieved:

    • Compilation of publicly accessible data and/or analysis of natural capital and ecosystem services. Candidate areas include water (physical flows), energy (physical flows), air emissions and environmental subsidies.
    • Use of data and/or analysis on natural capital and ecosystem services for the design, and/or implementation of, and/or evaluation of programs and projects, including:
      • Projects: Piloting of ecosystem accounting with OGM in the Bolaman river basin (TULIP, P172562) and roadmap to scale-up at a national level.
      • Programs: Demonstrate how NCAs can be used to monitor green growth and circular economy policies and programs.
    • Use of data and analysis supported by GPS to inform policy processes, such as the National Circular Economy Strategy and Green Deal Action Plan.


    Progress Made in FY22

    During FY22, the Bank team completed initial consultations with country counterparts and finalized the scope of work, including expected outcomes, outputs and a calendar of activities across the six work packages for the program.


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