WASHINGTON, March 7, 2025 – Reconstruction and recovery needs following the conflict that affected Lebanon are estimated at US$11 billion, according to a Lebanon Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA) 2025 report released by the World Bank that assesses damage, losses, and needs in ten sectors across the entire country, covering the period from October 8, 2023 until December 20, 2024.
Of the US$11 billion in reconstruction and recovery needs, the report estimates that US$3 to 5 billion will need to be publicly financed, including US$1billion for the infrastructure sectors (energy; municipal and public services; transport; and water, wastewater and irrigation). While US$6 to 8 billion will require private financing, mostly in the housing, commerce, industry, and tourism sectors.
Underpinning these needs estimates, the report assesses that the economic cost of the conflict on Lebanon is US$14 billion, with damage to physical structures amounting to US$6.8 billion and economic losses from reduced productivity, foregone revenues, and operating costs reaching US$7.2 billion. Housing has been the hardest hit sector with damages estimated at US$4.6 billion. The commerce, industry and tourism sector has also been significantly impacted, with losses estimated at US$3.4 billion across the entire country. In terms of geographic scope, the Nabatiyeh and South governorates have been the most impacted, followed by Mount Lebanon (which includes the southern suburb of Beirut).
From a macroeconomic perspective, the report finds that the impacts of the conflict have resulted in Lebanon’s real GDP contracting by 7.1% in 2024, a significant setback compared to a no-conflict growth estimated at 0.9 percent. By the end of 2024, Lebanon’s cumulative GDP decline since 2019 approached 40 percent, compounding the effects of the multi-pronged economic downturn and impacting Lebanon’s prospects for economic growth.
The Lebanon RDNA was conducted in response to a request from the Government of Lebanon to assess the impact across ten key sectors: Agriculture and Food Security; Commerce, Industry, and Tourism; Education; Environment and Debris Management; Energy; Health; Housing; Municipal and Public Services; Transport; and Water, Wastewater, and Irrigation. The assessment was carried out in close technical collaboration with the National Council for Scientific Research – Lebanon and in coordination with selected UN agencies and other development partners. The assessment follows the globally established and recognized Post-Disaster Needs Assessment methodology jointly developed by the European Union, the World Bank, and the United Nations. This methodology has been applied globally in post-disaster and post-conflict contexts to inform recovery and reconstruction planning. It draws on a hybrid methodology that relies on a mix of ground- and remote-based data, including ground surveys, key informant interviews, sample visual checks, satellite imagery, Synthetic Aperture Radar analysis, anonymized cellphone data, and social media analytics.
