Tajikistan, one of the poorest countries in Europe and Central Asia, needs sufficient resources to achieve energy security, reduce its dependence on fossil fuels, and shift towards renewable energy to meet the country’s aspirations of economic growth and prosperity for its people.
The Rogun Hydropower Plant Project (HPP) has the potential to be a transformational clean energy project for Tajikistan and all of Central Asia (CA), set to help provide improved access to electricity, decarbonize Central Asia, and alleviate energy shortages across the region. The project will:
- Become the main pillar of Tajikistan’s electricity system and an anchor for a regional electricity market in CA.
- Provide energy security and generate much needed revenue.
- Once completed, the Rogun HPP is expected to provide 10 million people with improved access to affordable, reliable and sustainable electricity.
Compliance with the World Bank’s Environmental and Social Standards
- A draft version of the Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA) and Environmental and Social Management Plan (ESMP) was initially disclosed on December 23, 2023, for stakeholder consultation purposes, providing an overview of the potential environmental and social impacts and their mitigation. In addition, several environmental and social management plans and frameworks remain under preparation. The completion and disclosure of the final versions of the ESIA, ESMP, Cumulative Impact Assessment (CIA) and other critical instruments are conditions of project effectiveness. Many of the key surveys, such as those on biodiversity, have now been completed, and their findings align with the 2014 ESIA prepared by the Government of Tajikistan, and financed by the World Bank. The recent surveys did not reveal any significant changes that would affect the conclusions previously drawn.
- The Environmental and Social Commitment Plan (ESCP), which is a legally binding document and which forms part of the project’s Financing Agreement, includes reference to material measures and actions that the Government commits to implementing before the project can become effective, while others should be implemented before the Government can receive disbursement of funds for the relevant Project components. Consequently, some of the feedback raised in stakeholder consultations will still be incorporated in the final versions. This process ensures compliance with the World Bank’s Environmental and Social Framework (ESF) throughout the project lifecycle.
Geographic Scope of the ESIA
- CSOs have noted limitations in the initial scope of the ESIA, which focused on the section between the Rogun and Nurek dams, assuming that downstream impacts beyond Nurek would be minimal. The ESIA that is currently being finalized acknowledges that this scope was too limited and has expanded the Area of Influence (AOI) to include the downstream sections of the Vakhsh and Amu Darya rivers. It is critical to note that the mitigation measures have been designed to effectively minimize impacts when the reservoir is being progressively filled, and our assessment remains that no appreciable adverse impacts on downstream users are expected, including during those years.
- As confirmed in the 2014 ESIA and reaffirmed in the updated ESIA, which will be finalized, disclosed, and adopted prior to project effectiveness, Tajikistan’s continued adherence to international agreements is expected to ensure that there will be no appreciable downstream impacts. The primary concern of the 2014 ESIA was related to irrigation and other water uses, especially in the context of the Aral Sea. By operating Rogun and Nurek dams in tandem, seasonal flow patterns will be maintained and downstream users will continue to have water during the critical summer months. Moreover, the storage capacity of Rogun will enhance Tajikistan's ability to release stored water during droughts, helping to alleviate water shortages when needed. Tajikistan remains a committed member of the Interstate Commission for Water Coordination of Central Asia (ICWC) and consistently operates within its agreed annual water allocations. This commitment will be further detailed in the final ESIA and will be closely monitored during the implementation of the project, with transparency and disclosure measures.
Analysis of Alternatives and Dam Safety
- In terms of assessment of alternative technologies as required by ESS1, the Rogun HPP stands out as a least-cost solution for providing clean and affordable electricity to Central Asia, as demonstrated by extensive regional modeling work carried out by the World Bank during project appraisal. The project is designed to significantly increase the supply of renewable energy, thereby reducing reliance on fossil fuels and supporting the region's low-carbon development goals. According to a regional planning analysis, the Rogun HPP, along with other large-scale hydropower projects, is expected to displace gas and coal-fired generation, and provide stability services to further enhance the development of variable renewable energy, leading to substantial environmental and economic benefits. Moreover, the cost of electricity generated by Rogun HPP remains highly competitive compared to alternative baseload sources, making it a part of the least-cost supply options for both Tajikistan and the broader Central Asian region. This is crucial for meeting the increasing power demand and supporting economic growth and development aspirations of the region. The project's ability to export surplus electricity to neighboring countries like Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan further underscores its role in enhancing regional energy security and cooperation.
- For a project of this magnitude, dam safety is of utmost importance. Based on detailed geological investigations and seismic hazard assessments, appropriate protective measures have been incorporated into the design of the dam and associated facilities. These assessments and designs have been carried out by reputable international consulting firms and independently reviewed by the Dam Safety Panel of Experts (DSPOE), which includes leading experts in relevant fields. As additional surveys, investigations, and monitoring activities are conducted, their findings and recommendations will be integrated into the design during project implementation.
- The design and construction plans for the dam and associated facilities have been prepared for both construction and operational phases, following international standards and best practices. The robustness of these designs has been confirmed by the DSPOE.
- Currently, eleven seismic stations are operational, for the purpose of monitoring the dam and reservoir areas throughout the construction, filling, and operational phases. If further studies indicate the need for additional monitoring systems, these will be installed under the guidance of the DSPOE.
- The project has also addressed concerns regarding the geologically sensitive zone on the right bank downstream of the dam. Detailed geotechnical investigations, surveys, and monitoring have been conducted to assess potential risks, with corresponding mitigation measures reviewed and approved by the DSPOE. Monitoring of this area will continue throughout the project, as reflected in the Instrumentation Plan, which covers potential landslide risks.
- A construction-stage Emergency Preparedness Plan (EPP) has already been developed and will be updated as the reservoir water level increases. The full EPP for the Vakhsh cascade is scheduled for completion by June 2025, following consultations with stakeholders, including downstream riparian countries. Additionally, a flood forecasting system has been installed and is operational, providing monitoring and early warnings during the construction stage. This system will be further enhanced under the project.
Resettlement and Livelihood Restoration Framework
- The project prioritizes minimizing displacement wherever possible, taking into account the final design of the dam. The Resettlement and Livelihood Restoration Framework, along with subsequent Resettlement Action Plans (RAPs) and Livelihood Restoration Plans (LRPs), address the physical and economic displacement of project-affected people (PAPs) near the dam site and downstream, as well as those in the reservoir area. The well-being of affected communities is central to the project’s design, and consultations—including those held without government representatives—have provided valuable insights into the resettlement and compensation process, which continue to guide implementation efforts.
Biodiversity Conservation and Environmental Flow
- The Biodiversity Management Plan (BMP) is under preparation and will be disclosed for consultation when ready. Its completion, disclosure and adoption are conditions of disbursement for the relevant project components. Additionally, environmental flow regimes are being designed to protect downstream ecosystems, with measures embedded in the project to prevent degradation.
- Biodiversity conservation is integrated into the project, in line with ESS6. The eDNA sampling program confirmed that no sturgeon species were found at the project site, and research indicates that the ecosystem is not viable for the species known from the region—Pseudoscaphirhynchus kaufmanni and P. hermanni. Furthermore, the final BMP will include a no-net loss plan for the juniper woodland.
Environmental and Social Management Plan (ESMP) and Commitment Plan (ESCP)
- The Environmental and Social Management Plan (ESMP) integrates mitigation measures specific to construction and installation directly into the contract documents. This includes pollution management, occupational health and safety, traffic management for vehicles used in the project and biodiversity management, among others – with these activities accounted for within the overall construction program costs.
- All requisite site-wide guidelines and/or management plans are being developed as set out in the Environmental and Social Commitment Plan (ESCP), which, as indicated above, is legally binding and referenced in the Financing Agreement. The ESCP defines actions, responsible parties, timeframes and monitoring processes. The timeframes included in the ESCP for each of these instruments ensure that they will be in place as needed throughout Project implementation.
Compliance with ESS10 and Meaningful Stakeholder Engagement
- Extensive and constructive project consultations have been conducted. For the December 2023 ESIA, the Rogun Project Management Group (PMG), with support from an international consultant and in line with the World Bank’s guidance, held nine consultations with national and international CSOs on issues like biodiversity, resettlement, human rights, and labor conditions. Moreover, these consultations have been essential in understanding the needs of the PAPs in terms of replacing their houses, structures, and lands, accessing supportive social infrastructure, and working on longer-term efforts to restore livelihoods. The World Bank has been able to talk to PAPs without the government being present, and these discussions have been informative and constructive, especially in identifying challenges in the resettlement, compensation and livelihood restoration process.
- In November 2023, the Rogun PMG hosted consultation meetings for riparian countries and CSOs in Almaty, Kazakhstan, prior to the disclosure of the ESIA findings to gather feedback. More consultations are taking place in the riparian countries. The next one will be held on October 28, 2024, in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, with others to follow.
- Each Environmental and Social document has been disclosed prior to consultations, consulted upon, revised and then re-disclosed. PMG and Directorate of the Flood Zone of Rogun HPP, hold periodic meetings in the communities to discuss key issues, particularly regarding the dam’s environmental and social impacts. Once the project is approved and becomes effective, resources will be made available to strengthen the grievance mechanism, monitor the Resettlement Action Plan and Livelihood Restoration Plan, address gender issues, and engage the public in designing and implementing the benefit-sharing program. The SEP is continually being updated to reflect stakeholder engagement activities.