Seminar “World Development Report (WDR) 2024: The Middle-Income Trap” (Postponed)

More than 100 countries—including China, India, Brazil, and South Africa—face serious obstacles that could hinder their efforts to become high-income countries in the next few decades, according to a new World Bank study that provides the first comprehensive roadmap to enable developing countries to escape the “middle-income trap.”

Drawing on lessons of the past 50 years, the World Development Report 2024 : The Middle Income Trap Finds that as countries grow wealthier, they usually hit a “trap” at about 10% of annual U.S. GDP per person—the equivalent of $8,000 today. That’s in the middle of the range of what the World Bank classifies as “middle-income” countries. Since 1990, only 34 middle-income economies have managed to shift to high-income status—and more than a third of them were either beneficiaries of integration into the European Union, or of previously undiscovered oil.

At the end of 2023, 108 countries were classified as middle-income, each with annual GDP per capita in the range of $1,136 to $13,845. These countries are home to six billion people—75% of the global population—and two out of every three people living in extreme poverty. They generate more than 40% of global GDP and more than 60% of carbon emissions. And they face far bigger challenges than their predecessors in escaping the middle-income trap: rapidly aging populations, rising protectionism in advanced economies, and the need to speed up the energy transition.

At this seminar, Somik Lall, Director of WDR 2024, will introduce the main findings of the report.

Program:

Keynote presentation by Somik Lall, Director, WDR 2024, World Bank 　

Comments by Yasushi Taira, Deputy Director General, Southeast Asia and Pacific Department, JICA

Comments by Izumi Ohno, Adjunct Professor and Professor Emeritus, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS)　　

Discussion and Q&A moderated by Koichi Omori, Senior External Affairs Officer, World Bank Tokyo Office