Recordings of the event can be accessed at the YouTube links below. Papers and presentations can be accessed on the Agenda tab. All times given are in Kualu Lumpur local time, which is EDT +12 hours / UTC +8 hours.
The World Bank and the Asia School of Business are organizing a conference to explore recent developments in international trade and cross-border economic activity. How are recent exogenous shocks and policy choices in major trading partners affecting global patterns of trade and GVCs? How are firms striking a balance between efficiency and resilience? What is the impact on developing countries? What are the implications for their trade and investment policies? What forms of international cooperation are desirable and feasible? We invite submissions of empirical and theoretical contributions that analyze the above and related questions. Papers relevant to the East Asia and Pacific region are particularly welcome.
Haishi “Harry” Li (University of Hong Kong): "We are all in the same boat: Cross-border spillovers of climate shocks through international trade and supply chains" (Paper| Presentation)
Oscar Avila (Central Bank of Colombia): "Foreign Climate Policy and Domestic Industry Adjustment in a Small Open Economy" (Paper| Presentation)
Ziho Park (National Taiwan University): "Trade Policy Uncertainty, Offshoring, and the Environment: Evidence from US Manufacturing Establishments" (Paper| Presentation)
Sally Chen (BIS, HK Monetary Authority): "Global supply chain interdependence and shock amplification – evidence from Covid lockdowns?" (Paper| Presentation)
Eduardo Pinheiro Fraga (World Bank): "Drivers of Concentration: The Roles of Trade Access, Structural Transformation, and Local Fundamentals" (Paper| Presentation)
Andrea F. Presbitero (IMF): "Geoeconomic fragmentation and foreign direct investment" (Paper| Presentation)
Sergio Schmukler (World Bank): "Bilateral International Investments: The Big Sur?" (Paper| Presentation)
12:30 – 1:30 PM
Lunch
1:30 – 3:30 PM
Session 6: Sanctions, Export Controls and Dispute Settlement (YouTube)
Fabio Ghironi (University of Washington): "International Trade and Macro Dynamics with Sanctions" (Paper | Presentation)
Ryo Makioka (Hokkaido University): "The Impact of Export Controls on International Trade: Evidence from the Japan--Korea Trade Dispute in Semiconductor Industry" (Paper| Presentation)
Eric Arias (World Bank): "Impartiality & US influence in International Trade Courts: Evidence from the WTO Appellate Body" (Paper| Presentation)
YB Senator Tengku Datuk Seri Zafrul Tengku Abdul Aziz (Minister of Investment, Trade and Industry)
4:30 – 5:30 PM
Panel Discussion: Malaysia’s participation and progression in Global Value Chains amid the recent global developments(YouTube)
Introductory Presenter: Daria Taglioni (World Bank, Research Manager) (Presentation)
Panel:
YBhg Dato’ Seri Wong Siew Hai (Malaysia Semiconductor Industry Association, President)
YBhg Datuk Seri Isham Ishak (Ministry of International Trade and Industry, Secretary General)
Dr. Ong Kian Ming (Taylor’s University, Program Director)
Moderator: Aaditya Mattoo (World Bank, East Asia and Pacific, Chief Economist)
5:30 – 5:45 PM
Closing Remarks – Yasuhiko Matsuda (World Bank, Country Manager)
KEYNOTE SPEAKER
Amit Khandelwal
Yale University
Amit Khandelwal is a senior faculty member at the Jackson School of Global Affairs.
Previously, he was the Jerome Chazen Professor of Global Business and Chair of the Economics Division at Columbia Business School. He holds affiliations at the National Bureau of Economic Research, Council on Foreign Relations, and JPAL. He was previously Chair Editor of The Review of Economics and Statistics.
His research focuses on the link between international trade and economic development. He has studied how trade reforms in China and India affected participation in global markets and firms’ productivity. He has implemented randomized trials that explore the causal impacts of trade, FDI, and technology adoption in Egypt, Myanmar, and Pakistan. His most recent work has examined the U.S. trade war and its implications for the U.S. economy.
His expertise in policy issues includes international trade and industrial policy. At Columbia, he teaches courses in microeconomics, emerging markets, and has taught international seminars on the Indian, Chinese and Myanmar economies.
Amit received a Ph.D. in Economics from Yale University and Bachelor's degrees in economics and mathematics from Northwestern University.
PAPER PRESENTERS
Eric Arias
World Bank
Eric Arias works as an Economist at the World Bank. He received his PhD from New York University and was a post-doctoral fellow at Princeton University. Prior to his current position, he was a faculty member at William and Mary. His research interests lie in the political economy of development, with applications spanning global financial flows, international economic relations, and the international sources of political accountability.
Oscar Avila
Central Bank of Colombia
Oscar Avila works as a research economist in the Macroeconomic Modelling Department at the Central Bank of Colombia, and as a lecturer of Macroeconomics at Rosario University. Oscar has a PhD in economics from the University of Rochester, and his interests include international macroeconomics and trade. Oscar's recent research has focused on analyzing the macroeconomic effects of foreign climate policy on a small open economy. Additionally, he has contributed to policy reports that analyze the macroeconomic and monetary policy effects of migration shocks and minimum wage policies in an economy with high levels of informality. Oscar's notable work also includes investigating the industry reallocation effects of Colombian trade liberalization in the early 90s.
Nuriye Melisa Bilgin
Bocconi University
Nuriye Melisa Bilgin is currently a postdoctoral researcher at Bocconi University. Her research interests are in the fields of production networks, firm dynamics, and international trade. She earned her Ph.D. in Economics from Koc University. During her Ph.D. studies, she worked as a consultant at the World Bank. Bilgin holds a BSc degree in Industrial Engineering from Koc University.
Sally Chen
Bank for International Settlements (BIS)
Sally Chen is currently the Regional Adviser for the Monetary and Economic Department in the BIS Asian Office. Before joining BIS, Sally was with the IMF in various capacities, including assignment in the Fund’s strategy department where she helped draft the Fund’s policy stance on exchange rate policy and debt management. More recently, Sally was the Resident Representative heading the IMF’s Hong Kong Office, where she coordinated the Fund's research efforts on financial market developments and outreach in the Greater China region. Her research focuses on the intersection of macro and financial stability, including fintech developments, capital flows and financial cycles.
Eduardo Fraga
World Bank
Eduardo Fraga works as a research economist (consultant) at the World Bank’s Development Research Group (DECRG). He received his PhD from Yale University. His research interests are in the fields of International Trade, Spatial Economics, and Development Economics, with a particular focus on spatial concentration, trade policy, and the effects of international trade costs more generally.
Fabio Ghironi
University of Washington
Fabio Ghironi holds the Paul F. Glaser Endowed Professorship in Economics at the University of Washington. He is a Research Associate in the International Finance and Macroeconomics Program of the National Bureau of Economic Research, a Research Fellow in the International Macroeconomics and Finance Programme of the Centre for Economic Policy Research, a Fellow of the Euro Area Business Cycle Network, and a member of the Advisory Board of International Finance. Professor Ghironi received his Ph.D. in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley in 1999, a Master in Economics from Bocconi University in 1994, and a Laurea Summa Cum Laude from the same institution in 1993. Prior to his current position, he was a faculty member at Boston College and an Economist in the International Research Function of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. He held Visiting Scholar appointments at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and the International Monetary Fund, and he is currently a Visiting Scholar at the Bank of Canada. His research interests span international trade and macroeconomics, macroeconomics, and monetary economics. He was the inaugural Director of the International Trade and Macroeconomics Program of the Central Bank Research Association from 2015 to 2018.
Haishi Li
University of Hong Kong
Haishi “Harry” Li is an assistant professor in economics at the HKU Business School of the University of Hong Kong. He works on international trade and international macroeconomics, with research interests spanning multinational production, trade policy, and climate change.
Ryo Makioka
Hokkaido University
Ryo Makioka is a lecturer in the School of Economics and Business at Hokkaido University, Japan. Before joining Hokkaido University in September 2021, he received his Ph.D. in Economics from Pennsylvania State University in August 2018 and was a research fellow at Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) from September 2018 to August 2021. His research focuses on International Economics and Applied Microeconomics.
Thao Trang Nguyen
Maastricht University
Thao Trang Nguyen is a PhD researcher working on emerging technologies (Industry 4.0), international trade and development. She is currently a third-year PhD fellow in Economics of Innovation at UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University. She holds a Master degree in Public Affairs from Indiana University. Her experience includes working in various research and consulting projects for ADB, World Bank, and for the government of Vietnam. Prior joining her PhD, she is a lecturer and researcher at Tay Nguyen University in Vietnam and a member of Young Southeast Asian Leaders Initiative.
Piyush Panigrahi
Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies
Piyush Panigrahi is a Postdoctoral Researcher at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and a Research Affiliate of the CESifo Network. His research interests are in international trade and spatial economics. His current research utilizes detailed microdata on firm-to-firm transactions to understand the structure and properties of supply chain networks and study their implications for firm dynamics and spatial development. Previously, he was a Cowles Foundation Fellow at Yale University (2021-22). He holds a Ph.D. in Economics from University of California, Berkeley and an M.Sc. in Econometrics and Mathematical Economics from London School of Economics.
Ziho Park
National Taiwan University
Ziho Park is an Assistant Professor at the National Taiwan University. His research interests include International Trade, Environment, and Corporate Finance. His work has focused on the impact of trade shocks on firms and establishments, especially on their employment, industry switching, and pollutant emissions. His research consists of using detailed microdata of US businesses to investigate how they respond to shocks and how such shocks propagate in the economy. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Chicago (2021).
Laurent Pauwels
New York University Abu Dhabi
Laurent Pauwels is a Research Scholar at New York University Abu Dhabi, and on-leave from the University of Sydney. He is also a Research Associate at the Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis at ANU. He received his Ph.D. in International Economics jointly from the Graduate Institute and the University of Geneva. Prior to his current position, he has held positions at the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, the European Central Bank, and the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe. He has been a visiting scholar at the National Bank of Belgium, and the United Nations University Comparative Regional Integration Studies. His focus areas and research are in statistical modeling, forecasting, econometrics, financial risk, and international trade and macroeconomics. His current research projects aim to analyze the impact of risks, interdependence, exposure, fragmentation, and shock propagation in macroeconomic networks and global value chains.
Andrea F. Presbitero
IMF, CEPR, and Johns Hopkins University
Andrea F. Presbitero is an Economist in the Research Department of the International Monetary Fund, CEPR Research Fellow in the International Macroeconomics and Finance programme, and Associate Fellow at Johns Hopkins University, SAIS Europe. He has been Assistant Professor at the Università Politecnica delle Marche and Associate Professor of Economics at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies. He is an applied economist whose research covers financial intermediation, development finance, and international finance. He serves as associate editor of the IMF Economic Review, Economia (LACEA), and the Journal of Financial Stability.
Sergio Schumkler
World Bank
Sergio Schmukler is the Research Manager of Macroeconomics and Growth in the World Bank's Development Research Group. His research area is international finance and international financial markets and institutions. He obtained his Ph.D. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley in 1997, when he joined the World Bank's Young Economist and Young Professionals Programs. He currently teaches financial development at Columbia University. He is a member of the Money and Finance Research (Mo.Fi.R) group and Treasurer of LACEA, the Latin America and Caribbean Economic Association (since 2004).
In recent years, he has visited the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the Central Bank of Chile, CREI at Universitat Pompeu Fabra, the Dutch Central Bank, and the Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. He has taught at the Department of Economics of University of Maryland (1999-2003), worked at the International Monetary Fund Research Department (2004-2005), was Associate Editor of the Journal of Development Economics (2001-2004), and has participated in several other editorial boards. In earlier years, he worked at the Argentine Central Bank, the U.S. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, and the Inter-American Development Bank Research Department.
Celestine Siameh
Independent Consultant
Celestine Siameh recently graduated with her Ph.D. in Applied Economics (Economics) from the University of Minnesota (she defended her dissertation in the Summer of 2022 and received the degree in the Spring of 2023). Currently, she is an economist who is an independent consultant focusing on global economic issues. Her research fields are International Trade and Development Economics, with a secondary interest in Public Economics and Economic History.
Primarily, her work combines empirical methods and quantitative structural models to address questions of trade policy, trade barriers, global production, poverty and inequality reduction, and fiscal policy-related issues.
Yang Zhou
Fudan University
Yang Zhou is currently an Assistant Professor at Fudan University. Her research interests are International Trade and International Macroeconomics. She received her PhD in Economics from the University of Minnesota.
SPECIAL ADDRESS
YB Senator Tengku Datuk Seri Zafrul Tengku Abdul Aziz
Minister of Investment, Trade and Industry
Tengku Datuk Seri Zafrul Tengku Abdul Aziz was sworn in as the Minister of International Trade & Industry (MITI) on 3 December 2022. He is also a second-term Senator of Dewan Negara, Malaysia’s Upper House of Parliament for its 15th Parliament session. He was the Minister of Finance and a Senator of Dewan Negara, Malaysia’s Upper House of Parliament during Malaysia’s Parliament 13th and 14th Parliament Sessions. He was first sworn in as Malaysia’s Minister of Finance on 10 March 2020, during the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia and re-sworn in on 30 August 2021. Read more »
MODERATOR
Aaditya Mattoo
World Bank, Chief Economist of the East Asia and Pacific Region
Aaditya Mattoo is Chief Economist of the East Asia and Pacific Region of the World Bank. He specializes in development, trade and international cooperation, and provides policy advice to governments. He is also Co-Director of the World Development Report 2020 on Global Value Chains. Prior to this he was the Research Manager, Trade and Integration, at the World Bank. Before he joined the Bank, Mr. Mattoo was Economic Counsellor at the World Trade Organization and taught economics at the University of Sussex and Churchill College, Cambridge University. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Cambridge, and an M.Phil in Economics from the University of Oxford. He has published on development, trade, trade in services, and international trade agreements in academic and other journals and his work has been cited in the Economist, Financial Times, New York Times, and Time Magazine.
PANELISTS
Daria Taglioni
World Bank, Research Manager
Daria Taglioni is Research Manager, Trade and International Integration, Development Research Group. She joined the World Bank Group in 2011 as Senior Trade Economist in the International Trade Department of the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Network (PREM). Since then, she has held various positions and roles, including Team-Task Lead for the World Development Report 2020, Principal Economist in the International Finance Corporation, and World Bank’s Global Lead on Global Value Chains. Previously, she worked as Senior Economist at the European Central Bank (ECB) and as Economist at the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). She has published in the American Economic Review, Journal of International Economics, and other scholarly journals. Her work has been featured in international media outlet such as the New York Times and Forbes. She authored various books on international trade. She is Italian and holds a PhD in International Economics from the Graduate Institute, Geneva.
YBhg Dato’ Seri Wong Siew Hai
Malaysia Semiconductor Industry Association, President
Dato’ Seri Wong is involved in the electronics industry as the President of Malaysia Semiconductor Industry Association (MSIA) and Champion of the E&E Productivity Nexus (EEPN). He is a member of Pemudah, a public - private sector special task force to facilitate business and improve Malaysia's global competitiveness.
Dato’ Seri Wong served Intel for 27 years. His last position with Intel was Vice President of Technology and Manufacturing Group (TMG) and General Manager of Assembly and Test Manufacturing (ATM), responsible for all assembly test factories worldwide.
He also served as the Vice President and Managing Director of Dell’s Asia Pacific Customer Centre for approximately 2 years.
YBhg Datuk Seri Isham Ishak
Ministry of International Trade and Industry, Secretary General
Datuk Seri Isham Ishak started serving as the Secretary General of the Ministry of International Trade and Industry, Malaysia on 17 January 2023. Previously, he was the Secretary General of the Ministry of Transport Malaysia from 25 November 2019 to 16 January 2023. He also served as the Secretary General of the Ministry of Tourism, Arts and Culture Malaysia from 17 February 2019 until 24 November 2019 and he also held the position of Secretary General of the Ministry of International Trade and Industry from 2 July 2018 until 16 February 2019. In addition, he also served as Deputy Secretary General (Trade) in the Ministry of International Trade and Industry from 2016 until 2018.
Dr. Ong Kian Ming
Taylor’s University, Program Director
Dr. Ong Kian-Ming is Program Director, Philosophy Politics & Economics, at Taylor’s University, Malaysia.
He is a Senior Visiting Senior Fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute from March 2023 to September 2023.
He is a former two-term Member of Parliament (MP) in Malaysia from 2013 to 2022 (MP for Serdang from 2013 to 2018 and MP for Bangi from 2018 to 222) representing the Democratic Action Party (DAP). He was the Deputy Minister of International Trade and Industry (MITI) from July 2018 to February 2020.
He was a former Fulbright Scholar and holds a PhD in Political Science from Duke University, an MPhil in Economics from the University of Cambridge, and a BSc in Economics from the London School of Economics. Prior to his political life, he was formerly a lecturer at UCSI University, a researcher at the Socio-Economic Development and Research (SEDAR) Institute and the Institute of Strategic Analysis and Policy Studies (INSAP) and a consultant with the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) in the Kuala Lumpur office.
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