Global commodity markets are being reshaped in lasting ways as a result of COVID-19, the war in Ukraine, and the impacts of climate change—a transformation that is likely to have profound implications for developing economies over the coming decades, a new World Bank study, Commodity Markets: Evolution, Challenges, and Policies, has found.
The study offers the first comprehensive analysis—encompassing all major commodities—of how these markets evolved over the past 100 years and the directions they are likely to take over the next 30. It predicts that growth in overall global demand for commodities is likely to decelerate as population growth slows and developing economies mature, although demand for some commodities is likely to rise.
Moreover, the transition to cleaner energy is likely to be challenging. Demand for metals necessary to build the infrastructure for renewable energy and to produce electric vehicles is likely to surge in the coming decades, driving up the price of metals and delivering windfall gains for countries that export them. Although renewable energy is fast becoming the lowest-cost source of energy in many countries, fossil fuels will probably retain some of their appeal, especially in countries with ample domestic reserves. In the short-run, with inadequate investment in low-carbon technologies—just one-third of the required level—energy demand could continue to outstrip supply, keeping prices at elevated levels.
At this seminar, John Baffes, Senior Agriculture Economist, Prospects Group, World Bank and Peter Nagle, Senior Economist, Prospects Group, World Bank, introduced the main findings of the report, upon their visit to Tokyo.
Date/Time:
1:00pm-2:30pm, Friday November 4, 2022 (Japan Standard Time)
Speakers:
John Baffes
Senior Agriculture Economist, Prospects Group, World Bank
Peter Nagle
Senior Economist, Prospects Group, World Bank
Commentator:
Gen Furuhashi
Chief Researcher, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Japan
John Beirne
Vice Chair of Research and Senior Research Fellow, Asian Development Bank Institute
Presentation material: Discussion of “Commodity Markets: Evolution, Challenges, Policies” (PDF)
Moderator:
Koichi Omori
Senior External Affairs Officer, World Bank Tokyo Office