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Annual Bank Conference on Development Economics 2021: Global Unrest

June 21-25, 2021

Virtual: Zoom

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  • The Annual Bank Conference on Development Economics (ABCDE), organized by the World Bank’s Development Economics (DEC) Vice Presidency, is one of the world's best-known series of conferences for the presentation and discussion of new knowledge on development. The conference aims to promote the exchange of cutting-edge knowledge among researchers, policymakers, and development practitioners.

    The theme of ABCDE 2021 is "Global Unrest". It will be held completely online, using a Zoom platform. It will take place over 5 days, June 21–25, from 9:00 am – 12:00 pm (ET).

    The conference will feature an introduction by Carmen Reinhart (WBG Chief Economist), a keynote speech by Tim Besley (School Professor at the London School of Economics), and a concluding panel of policy makers, composed of Erica Chenoweth (Professor at Harvard Kennedy School), Ibrahim Elbadawi (Managing Director of the Economic Research Forum and former Minister of Finance and Economic Planning, Republic of Sudan), Neil Ketchley (Professor at University of Oslo), Claudia López (Mayor of Bogota, Colombia), and Andrés Velasco (Dean of the School of Public Policy at the London School of Economics).

     The conference will also include two groups of papers: Full presentation and discussion of fifteen papers and twelve short (or poster) presentations, all in plenary sessions. The conference program is designed for a comprehensive and lively presentation of some of the most recent and important research on Global Unrest. The online format allows for more compact but also more numerous presentations and is intended to reach a global audience.

     

  • Social unrest across regions is intensifying, from East Asia to Latin America, even as much of this unrest stems from frustrations experienced more locally — within regions and countries. The forms, sources, and intensity of this unrest vary considerably: in some places it is long-simmering concerns over rising economic inequality and lack of opportunities, in others it is more recent populist mobilization regarding social identity and civil rights, while still in others it is the performance and legitimacy of government itself. Perhaps paradoxically, this social discontent is occurring at a time when most national and global development indicators continue to show steady, if uneven, improvement. 

    Call for papers

    The ABCDE organizing committee issued a call for innovative papers that examine the drivers of global unrest, its similarities and differences with previous episodes of widespread civic discontent, whether and how such unrest can be addressed, and whether there may be common threads connecting these developments. Of interest are papers that explore these issues with respect to one or more of the following sub-themes:

    • Rising Inequality
    • Rising Aspirations
    • Unmet Expectations
    • Resistance to Authoritarianism
    • The Role of Social Media
    • The Use and Abuse of Evidence
    • Potential Links with the Coronavirus Pandemic  

    Papers that do not fit into these sub-themes, but are related to the main topic of the conference, are also welcome. Selected papers will be presented in the plenary sessions of the conference. 

    Submission of Papers

    The submission is now closed. 

  •  

    Monday, June 21

    9:00 am – 10:00 am

    Introduction and Keynote Speech 

    Welcome and introduction: Carmen Reinhart (World Bank)

    Keynote speech: Tim Besley (London School of Economics), “Identity Politics, Political Conflict and Economic Policy”
    ➜ Presentation
    ➜ Video

    10:00 am – 12:30 pm

    Session 1: Disappointing Development Outcomes

    Moderator: Daria Taglioni (Trade and International Integration, World Bank)

    1. Title: “Education and Conflict: Evidence from a Policy Experiment in Indonesia”
      Author (speaker): Alessandro Saia (University of Lausanne)
      Co-author: Dominic Rohner (University of Lausanne)
      Discussant: Mounu Prem (Universidad del Rosario)
      ➜ Presentation
      ➜ Video
    2. Title: “The Political Economy Consequences of China's Export Slowdown”
      Author (speaker): Filipe R. Campante (Johns Hopkins University)
      Co-authors:  Davin Chor (Tuck School of Business, Dartmouth) and Bingjing Li (National University of Singapore)
      Discussant: Siddharth George (Boston University)
      ➜ Presentation
      ➜ Video
    3. Title: “Obstacles on the Road to Palestinian Economic Growth”
      Author (speaker): Roy van der Weide (World Bank)
      Co-authors: Bob Rijkers (World Bank), Brian Blankespoor (World Bank), and Alexei Abrahams (World Bank)
      Discussant: Mathias Thoenig (University of Lausanne)
      ➜ Presentation
      ➜ Video

     

    Tuesday, June 22

    9:00 am – 11:00 am

    Session 2: Unmet expectations

    Moderator: Sergio Schmukler (Macroeconomics and Growth, World Bank)

    1. Title: “Institutional Vulnerability, Breakdown of Trust: a Model of Social Unrest in Chile”
      Author (speaker):       Andres Velasco (London School of Economics)
      Co-author: Robert Funk (Universidad de Chile)
      Discussant: Stuti Khemani (World Bank)
      ➜ Presentation
      ➜ Video
    2. Title: “Great Expectations: The Effect of the Gap between Expected and Actual Outcomes of Higher Education on Political Behavior”
      Author (speaker): Loreto Cox (Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile)
      Discussant: Natalia Garbiras Diaz (UC Berkeley)
      ➜ Presentation
      ➜ Video
    3. Title: “Subjective Well-being and Peaceful Uprisings”
      Author (speaker): Caroline Witte (Copenhagen Business School)
      Co-authors: Elena Ianchovichina (World Bank) and Martijn Burger (Erasmus University Rotterdam)
      Discussant: Asif Islam (World Bank)
      ➜  Presentation | Comments
      ➜ Video
    11:05 am – 12:30 pm

    Session Posters 1: Measures and manifestations of social unrest

    Moderator: Berk Ozler (Poverty and Inequality, World Bank)

    1. Title: “Measuring Social Unrest Using Media Reports”
      Author (speaker): Kate Nguyen (International Monetary Fund)
      Co-authors: Maximiliano Appendino (International Monetary Fund), Philip Barrett (International Monetary Fund), and Jorge de Leon Miranda (Inter-American Development Bank)
      ➜ Presentation
      ➜ Video
    2. Title: “Brothers or Invaders? How Crisis-Driven Migrants Shape Voting Behavior”
      Author (speaker): Sandra Rozo (University of Southern California, Marshall School of Business)
      Co-author: Juan Vargas (Universidad del Rosario)
      ➜ Presentation
      ➜ Video
    3. Title: “Negative Economic Shocks and Militant Formation”
      Author (speaker): Iris Malone (Stanford University)
      ➜ Presentation
      ➜ Video
    4. Title: “Chile's Missing Students: Dictatorship, Higher Education and Social Mobility”
      Author (speaker): Luis Martinez (University of Chicago)
      Co-authors: Maria Angelica Bautista (University of Chicago), Felipe Gonzalez (Pontifical Catholic University of Chile), Pablo Muñoz (University of California, Berkeley), and Mounu Prem (Universidad del Rosario)
      ➜ Presentation
      ➜ Video

     

    Wednesday, June 23

    9:00 am – 11:00 am

    Session 3 : The role of social media

    Moderator: Kathleen Beegle (Human Development, World Bank)

    1. Title: “Facebook Causes Protests”
      Author (speaker): Leopoldo Fergusson (Universidad de los Andes)
      Co-author: Carlos A. Molina (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)
      Discussant: Robert Funk (Universidad de Chile)
      ➜ Video
    2. Title: “3G Internet and Confidence in Government”
      Author (speaker): Ekaterina Zhuravskaya (Paris School of Economics)
      Co-authors: Sergei Guriev (Sciences Po, Paris) and Nikita Melnikov (Princeton University)
      Discussant: Quy-Toan Do (World Bank)
      ➜ Presentation
      ➜ Video
    3. Title: “All Eyes on Them: A Field Experiment on Citizen Oversight and Electoral Integrity”
      Author (speaker): Mateo Montenegro (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)
      Co-author: Natalia Garbiras-Diaz (University of California Berkeley)
      Discussant: Horacio Larreguy (ITAM)
      ➜ Presentation
      ➜ Video
    11:05 am – 12:30 pm

    Session Posters 2:  Perceptions and realities driving social unrest

    Moderator: Deon Filmer (Development Research Group, World Bank)

    1. Title: “Are Fairness Perceptions Shaped by Income Inequality? Evidence from Latin America”
      Author (speaker): Germán Reyes (Cornell University)
      Co-author: Leonardo Gasparini (Universidad Nacional de La Plata)
      ➜ Presentation
      ➜ Video
    2. Title: “What Drives the French Discontent?”
      Author (speaker): Eva Davoine (World Bank)
      ➜ Presentation
      ➜ Video
    3. Title: “Perceptions, Contagion, and Civil Unrest”
      Author (speaker): Christophe Abi-Nassif (Middle East Institute)
      Coauthors: Asif Mohammed Islam (World Bank) and Daniel Lederman (World Bank)
      ➜ Presentation
      ➜ Video
    4. Title: “Why Does the Arab Spring Keep Coming Back?”
      Author (speaker): Elena Ianchovichina (World Bank)
      Co-author: Shantayanan Devarajan (School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University)
      ➜ Presentation
      ➜ Video

     

    Thursday, June 24

    9:00 am – 11:00 am

    Session 4: The direct consequences of social unrest

    Moderator: Aart Kraay (Development Economics Vice Presidency, World Bank)

    1. Title: “The Macroeconomic Impact of Social Unrest”
      Author (speaker): Samuel Pienknagura (IMF)
      Co-authors: Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov (IMF) and Luca Antonio Ricci (IMF)
      Discussant: Bob Rijkers (World Bank)
      ➜ Presentation
      ➜ Video
    2. Title: “Terror and Tourism: The Economic Consequences of Media Coverage”
      Author (speaker): Thiemo Fetzer (University of Warwick)
      Co-authors: Tim Besley (London School of Economics) and Hannes Mueller (Institute for Economic Analysis)
      Discussant: Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov (IMF)
      ➜ Presentation
      ➜ Video
    3. Title: “Opposition Media, State Censorship, and Political Accountability: Evidence from Chavez's Venezuela”
      Author (speaker): Brian Knight (Brown University)
      Co-author: Ana Tribin (Central Bank of Colombia)
      Discussant: Michael Woolcock (World Bank)
      ➜ Presentation
      ➜ Video
    11:05 – 12:30 pm

    Session Posters 3: Policy responses and social unrest

    Moderator: Haishan Fu (Development Data Group, World Bank)

    1. Title: “Export Incentives, Domestic Mobilisation and Labour Reforms”
      Author (speaker): Alice Evans (King's College London)
      ➜ Video
    2. Title: “Does Relative Deprivation Condition the Effects of Social Protection Programs on Political Attitudes? Experimental Evidence from Pakistan”
      Author (speaker): Katrina Kosec (International Food Policy Research Institute)
      Co-author: Cecilia H. Mo (University of California, Berkeley)
      ➜ Presentaion
      ➜ Video
    3. Title: “Deployment of Public Resources, Service Delivery, and Stability: Evidence from Niger”
      Author (speaker): Pascal Jaupart (World Bank)
      Co-authors: Alexandre Arrobbio (World Bank), Michel Maellberg (World Bank), and Soeren Henn (University of Chicago)
      ➜ Presentation
      ➜ Video
    4. Title: “Public Investment under Autocracy and Social Unrest”
      Author (speaker): Thorsten Janus (University of Wyoming)
      Co-author: Johnson Gwatipedza (University of Manchester)
      ➜ Presentation
      ➜ Video

     

    Friday, June 25

    9:00 am – 11:00 am

    Session 5: The policy response to social unrest

    Moderator: Arianna Legovini (Development Impact Evaluation Group, World Bank)

    1. Title: “The Political Economy of State Employment and Instability in China”
      Author (speaker): Jaya Wen (Harvard Business School)
      Discussant: Colin Xu (World Bank)
      ➜ Presentation
      ➜ Video
    2. Title: “Can Development Programs Counter Insurgencies?: Evidence from a Field Experiment in Afghanistan”
      Author (speaker): Andrew Beath (World Bank)
      Co-authors: Fotini Christia (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) and Ruben Enikolopov (Barcelona Institute of Political Economy and Governance, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, and New Economic School)
      Discussant: Benjamin Marx (Sciences Po)
      ➜ Presentation
      ➜ Video
    3. Title: “Ethnic Conflicts and the Informational Dividend of Democracy”
      Author (speaker): Jeremy Lucchetti (University of Geneva)
      Co-authors: Mathias Thoenig (University of Lausanne) and Dominic Rohner (University of Lausanne)
      Discussant: Vijayendra Rao (World Bank)
      ➜ Presentation
      ➜ Video
    11:05 am – 12:30 pm

    Closing policy panel:

    “Global Unrest: A Source of Concern or a Force for Reform?”

    Moderator: Norman Loayza (Global Indicators Group, World Bank)

    • Erica Chenoweth (Professor at Harvard Kennedy School)
    • Ibrahim Elbadawi (Managing Director of the Economic Research Forum and former Minister of Finance and Economic Planning, Republic of Sudan)
    • Neil Ketchley (Professor at University of Oslo)
    • Claudia López (Mayor of Bogota, Colombia)
    • Andrés Velasco (Dean of the School of Public Policy at the London School of Economics).
      ➜ Video

     

     

  • Tim Besley

    Tim Besley

    London School of Economics and Political Science

    Tim Besley is School Professor of Economics and Political Science and W. Arthur Lewis Professor of Development Economics at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE). He has served as an external member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee and in 2015 he became a founding member of the UK’s National Infrastructure Commission. Professor Besley was educated at Aylesbury Grammar School and Oxford University where he became a prize fellow of All Souls College. He taught subsequently at Princeton before being appointed Professor in the economics department at the LSE in 1995. He is a Fellow of the Econometric Society, the British Academy, and the European Economic Association. He is also a foreign honorary member of the American Economic Association and of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. He is a past President of the International Economic Association, Econometric Society and European Economic Association as well as a past co-editor of the American Economic Review. In 2005, he won the Yrjö Jahnsson Award of the European Economics Association which is granted every other year to an economist aged under 45 who has made a significant contribution to economics in Europe. His research, which mostly has a policy focus, is in the areas of Development Economics, Public Economics and Political Economy. In 2018, he was knighted for services to economics and public policy.

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  • Welcome and Keynote

    Carmen M. Reinhart, Vice President and Chief Economist

    Carmen M. Reinhart

    Welcome and Introduction

    Carmen M. Reinhart is the Vice President and Chief Economist of the World Bank Group. Assuming this role on June 15, 2020, Reinhart provides thought leadership for the institution at an unprecedented time of crisis. She also manages the Bank’s Development Economics Department. She is on public service leave from Harvard Kennedy School, where she is the Minos A. Zombanakis Professor of the International Financial System. Previously, she was Senior Policy Advisor and Deputy Director at the International Monetary Fund and held positions as Chief Economist and Vice President at the investment bank Bear Stearns. She also serves in the Advisory Panels of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the International Monetary Fund. Reinhart has been listed among Bloomberg Markets Most Influential 50 in Finance, Foreign Policy’s Top 100 Global Thinkers, and Thompson Reuters' The World's Most Influential Scientific Minds. In 2018 she was awarded the King Juan Carlos Prize in Economics and NABE’s Adam Smith Award, among others. She holds a Ph.D. from Columbia University.

    Tim Besley

    Tim Besley

    Keynote Speaker

    Tim Besley is School Professor of Economics and Political Science and W. Arthur Lewis Professor of Development Economics at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE). He has served as an external member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee and in 2015 he became a founding member of the UK’s National Infrastructure Commission. Professor Besley was educated at Aylesbury Grammar School and Oxford University where he became a prize fellow of All Souls College. He taught subsequently at Princeton before being appointed Professor in the economics department at the LSE in 1995. He is a Fellow of the Econometric Society, the British Academy, and the European Economic Association. He is also a foreign honorary member of the American Economic Association and of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. He is a past President of the International Economic Association, Econometric Society and European Economic Association as well as a past co-editor of the American Economic Review. In 2005, he won the Yrjö Jahnsson Award of the European Economics Association which is granted every other year to an economist aged under 45 who has made a significant contribution to economics in Europe. His research, which mostly has a policy focus, is in the areas of Development Economics, Public Economics and Political Economy. In 2018, he was knighted for services to economics and public policy.

    Session 1: Disappointing Development Outcomes

    Daria Taglioni, World Bank

    Daria Taglioni

    Moderator

    Daria Taglioni is Research Manager, Trade and International Integration, Development Research Group. She joined the World Bank Group in 2011 as Senior Trade Economist in the International Trade Department of the Poverty Reducation and Economic Management Network (PREM). Since then, she has held various positions and roles, including Team-Task Lead for the World Development Report 2020, Principal Economist in the International Finance Corporation, and World Bank’s Global Lead on Global Value Chains. Previously, she worked as Senior Economist at the European Central Bank (ECB) and as Economist at the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). She has published in the American Economic Review, Journal of International Economics, and other scholarly journals. Her work has been featured in international media outlet such as the New York Times and Forbes. She authored various books on international trade. She is Italian and holds a PhD in International Economics from the Graduate Institute, Geneva.

    Alessandro Saia, ABCDE 2021 Speaker

    Alessandro Saia

    Speaker

    Alessandro Saia is an assistant professor of economics at the University of Bologna. Prior to joining University of Bologna, he was a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Lausanne and an Economist at the Economics Department of the Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD). He holds a PhD in Economics from University of Bologna.

    Munoz Martinez, ABCDE 2021 Speaker

    Mounu Prem

    Discussant

    Mounu works as an Adjunct Professor at the Economics Department in Universidad del Rosario. He holds a PhD in Economics from Stanford University and a M.A. and B.A. in Economics from PUC Chile. His research interests are in Political Economy, Development Economics, Corporate Finance, and Economic History. He has focused his research on studying the economic and political legacies of Pinochet's dictatorship, the causes and consequences of corruption, the allocation of public sector jobs, Colombia post-peace agreement, and the role of internal markets in business groups.

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    Roy van der Weide

    Speaker

    Roy van der Weide is a Senior Economist in the Poverty and Inequality Research team within the Development Research Group of the World Bank. He assumed the responsibility of leading the poverty and inequality mapping research within the department. His other research is concerned with inequality, socio-economic mobility, and the transmission of price inflation and volatility. His work has been published in a range of academic journals including the American Economic Review, the Journal of Econometrics, the Journal of Applied Econometrics, and the World Bank Economic Review. He holds a PhD from the University of Amsterdam.

    Mathias Thoenig, ABCDE 2021 Discussant

    Mathias Thoenig

    Discussant

    Mathias Thoenig is a Professor of Economics at the School of Business and Economics at the University of Lausanne, a CEPR Research Fellow in the international trade and macro programs and an elected Council Member of the European Economic Association. He is a Distinguished Scholar at IMD Business School and a Professorial Fellow at Queen Mary University of London. Mathias received his Ph.D. in economics from University Paris Sorbonne and his Bachelor of Engineering from Ecole Polytechnique (France). He has held visiting appointments at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, International Monetary Fund, SciencesPo Paris, University of British Columbia and University Pompeu Fabra. Mathias’s research lies at the intersection of international economics and political economy of development. In a series of influential papers, he studies the relationship between international trade and armed conflicts and how the global architecture of trade agreements is shaped by conflict risk. He has also analyzed the conditions under which trade can build and cement trust, or its opposite, foster conflict. His current research agenda focuses on democratization, violence‐induced migration and post‐conflict reconciliation. He uses cutting‐edge quantitative analysis to form policy‐relevant predictions for conflict containment. Many questions addressed in his papers are particularly high on the policy agendas of international agencies and NGOs that pursue the joint objectives of peace and development. Mathias has published extensively in academic journals, including American Economic Review, Econometrica, Harvard Business Review, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Review of Economic Studies. Mathias was nominated for the award of ‘best young economist’ in France, a prestigious prize created by ‘Le Monde’ and supported by the French senate. He is the recipient of a highly competitive research grant from the European Research Council (ERC grant) for his work on the role of distrust and grievances in ethnic conflicts. Mathias is a passionate and award‐winning teacher, a dedicated provider of public goods and a fervent mentor of junior colleagues.

    Session 2: Unmet expectations

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    Sergio Schmukler

    Moderator

    Sergio Schmukler is the Research Manager of Macroeconomics and Growth in the World Bank's Development Research Group. His research area is international finance and international financial markets and institutions. He obtained his Ph.D. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley in 1997, when he joined the World Bank's Young Economist and Young Professionals Programs. He currently teaches financial development at Columbia University. He is a member of the Money and Finance Research (Mo.Fi.R) group and Treasurer of LACEA, the Latin America and Caribbean Economic Association (since 2004).

    Andrés Velasco, ABCDE 2021 Speaker

    Andrés Velasco

    Speaker

    Andrés Velasco is Professor of Public Policy and Dean of the School of Public Policy at the London School of Economics and Political Science. In 2017-19 he was a member of the G20 Eminent Persons Group. During 2015-16 he co-chaired the Global Panel on the Future of the Multilateral Lending Institutions. He was president of the Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association (LACEA) from 2005 to 2007. Mr. Velasco ran for the presidency of Chile in the June 2013 primaries. He also was the Minister of Finance of Chile between March 2006 and March 2010. During his tenure he was recognized as Latin American Finance Minister of the Year by several international publications. In 2013-17 Mr. Velasco served as Professor of Professional Practice in International Development at the School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University. In 2000-06 he was Sumitomo-FASID Professor of International Finance and Development at the Harvard Kennedy School. Earlier he was Associate Professor of Economics and Director of the Center for Latin American and Caribbean Studies at New York University. Mr. Velasco holds a Ph.D. in economics from Columbia University. He is the author of nearly one hundred academic articles, several academic books, and two novels.

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    Stuti Khemani

    Discussant

    Stuti Khemani is a Senior Economist in the Development Research Group of the World Bank. Her area of research is the political economy of public policy choices, and the role of institutions in economic development. Her work is published in economics and political science journals, such as the American Economic Journal, Journal of Development Economics and American Political Science Review. She is the lead author of the Policy Research Report on Governance: Making Politics Work for Development: Harnessing Transparency and Citizen Engagement. She is currently examining how the role of government has resurged in the 21st century to address problems such as climate change, water scarcity, public health, conflict, and (lack of) fairness in economic systems which appears to fuel social unrest. She applies economic theory of public sector institutions to develop policy ideas for how to strengthen state capacity to address these problems and build trust and legitimacy in society. Her research and advisory work span a diverse range of countries, including Benin, China, India, the Philippines, Nigeria, Tanzania and Uganda. She holds a PhD in Economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

    Loreto Cox, ABCDE 2021 Speaker

    Loreto Cox

    Speaker

    Loreto Cox is an Assistant Professor at the School of Government at the Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. She received her Ph.D. in Political Science at MIT in 2019. She also holds degrees in commercial engineering with a mention in economics and in sociology from the Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. She specializes in political behavior and higher education.

    Natalia Garbiras Diaz, ABCDE 2021 Discussant

    Natalia Garbiras Diaz

    Discussant

    Natalia is a Ph.D. candidate in the Department of Political Science at the University of California, Berkeley. Starting in the Fall of 2021, she will be a Max Weber Fellow at the European University Institute. She is a Research Associate at the Center on the Politics of Development. Her main research interests are in comparative politics and the political economy of development, focusing on corruption, public goods provision, and accountability in Latin America. She also studies the formation of citizen and ex-combatant attitudes and their role in stabilizing peace in post-conflict settings. She holds an M.A. in Economics from the University of Los Andes (Colombia). Before receiving her Ph.D., she worked at the World Bank, the Observatory of Democracy, and Colombia’s National Planning Department.

    Elena Ianchovichina, Deputy chief economist, Latin America and Carribean

    Elena Ianchovichina

    Speaker

    Elena Ianchovichina is the deputy chief economist for the Latin America and the Caribbean Region of the World Bank. Previously, she was a lead economist in the Office of the Chief Economist of the World Bank's Middle East and North Africa Region, where on many occasions she served as the acting regional chief economist. Since joining the World Bank in 2000, she has been a young professional in the Development Research Group and the East Asia and Pacific Region and an economist and a senior economist in the Economic Policy and Debt Department, where she managed the program on inclusive growth. Her research covers a wide range of topics in development and international economics, including trade policy, foreign investment, economic growth, inequality, food security, and political violence. She is the author or coauthor of numerous publications, including many articles published in international refereed journals, World Bank reports, and several books. Born in Bulgaria, she received her PhD from Purdue University in Indiana.

    Caroline Witte, ABCDE 2021 Speaker

    Caroline Witte

    Speaker

    Caroline Witte is an assistant professor at the department of Strategic Management and Entrepreneurship. Her research interest cover international business, strategy and development economics. She is particularly interested in how firms manage their business in in fragile economies. In her research, she asks: ‘How can firms in fragile economies take advantage of a volatile institutional context?’ And more generally: ‘How can firms exploit the opportunities created by risk, uncertainty and discontinuous shocks?’. Before joining RSM, Caroline was assistant professor of strategy and international management at the Department of Strategy and Innovation of the Copenhagen Business School. She has a PhD from the Erasmus School of Economics. Her PhD disseration was awarded the prestigious Dissertation Award of the International Management Division of the Academy of Management.

    Asif Islam

    Asif Islam

    Discussant

    Asif Islam is a senior economist for the Middle East and North Africa Region of the World Bank Group. He has written on a wide range of issues related to economic development with a focus on the private sector. He has published in peer-reviewed journals on several dimensions of the private sector including entrepreneurship, technology, crime, informality, and gender. He has also published on a wide range of topics including fiscal policy, environment, and agriculture. He co-authored several reports including the World Development Report (2019) - The Changing Nature of Work, What's Holding Back the Private Sector in MENA? Lessons from the Enterprise Survey, and Uncharted Waters: The New Economics of Water Scarcity and Variability. He holds a PhD in Applied Economics from the University of Maryland-College Park, and a bachelor’s degree in Economics and Computer Science from Macalester College.

    Session Posters 1: Measures and manifestations of social unrest

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    Berk Özler

    Moderator

    Berk Özler is Lead Economist and Research Manager of the Poverty and Inequality Research Progam in the Development Research Group. He received his B.Sc. in Mathematics from Bosphorous University in 1991, and his Ph.D in Economics from Cornell University in 2001. After working on poverty and inequality measurement, poverty mapping, and the 2006 World Development Report on Equity and Development earlier, he decided to combine his interests in cash transfer programs and HIV risks facing young women in Africa by designing a field experiment in Malawi. He has since been involved in a number of cluster-randomized field experiments. He is a co-founder of and a regular contributor to the Development Impact blog.

    Iris Malone, ABCDE 2021 Speaker

    Iris Malone

    Speaker

    Iris Malone is Assistant Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at the George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs. Dr. Malone's research agenda focuses on the causes of terrorism and insurgency as well as how states identify and respond to these emerging threats. Prior to joining George Washington University, she was a Postdoctoral Fellow at the Center for International Security and Cooperation and received her PhD from the Stanford University Department of Political Science.

    Luis Martinez , ABCDE 2021 Speaker

    Luis Martinez

    Speaker

    Luis Martinez is an Assistant Professor at the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy. His main areas of research are political economy and development economics, with a regional focus on Latin America. Some of his work is centered around authoritarian regimes, studying the manipulation of official statistics and examining the consequences of exposure to state repression. In other work, he has studied electoral participation and government performance in settings with weak institutions. A third line of research focuses on civil conflict, studying the impact of cross-border safe havens on insurgent violence and the effect of conflict on investment. His work has been published or is forthcoming in general interest journals in economics and political science. Martinez holds a PhD in economics from the London School of Economics.

    Session 3 : The role of social media

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    Kathleen Beegle

    Moderator

    Kathleen Beegle is Research Manager and Lead Economist in the Human Development Team of the World Bank's Development Research Group. Her research experience includes the study of poverty, labor, economic shocks, and methodological studies on household survey data collection in developing countries. She has expertise in the design and implementation of household surveys and their use for poverty and policy analysis. Her work has been published in peer-reviewed academic journals including the Journal of Development Economics, Economic Development and Cultural Change, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, World Bank Economic Review, Review of Economics and Statistics, Journal of Human Resources, and Demography. She is co-author of numerous chapters in books and is co-lead of several World Bank reports including Realizing the Full Potential of Safety Nets in Africa, Poverty in A Rising Africa, Accelerating Poverty Reduction in Africa, and the World Development Report 2013 on Jobs.

    Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, ABCDE 2021 Speaker

    Ekaterina Zhuravskaya

    Speaker

    Ekaterina Zhuravskaya is a Professor of Economics at PSE (Paris School of Economics, Paris) and EHESS. She received her PhD in Economics from Harvard University. She is a Research Fellow of the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) in Public Policy and Development Economics programs. She got her PhD at Harvard University in 1999 and spent 10 subsequent years working as Professor of Economics at the New Economic School and as the Academic Director of the Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR). Her primary field of interest is political economics with applications to media, ethnic conflict, culture, corruption, and economic history. She is a recipient of the CNRS Silver Medal and the Birgit Grodal Award.

    Mateo Montenegro, ABCDE 2021 Speaker

    Mateo Montenegro

    Speaker

    Mateo Montenegro is a Postdoctoral Fellow at CEMFI. His research lies at the intersection of development economics, public policy and political economy. He received his PhD in Economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) in 2020".

    Session Posters 2: Perceptions and realities driving social unrest

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    Deon Filmer

    Moderator

    Deon Filmer is Director of the Research Group at the World Bank. He has previously served as Acting Research Manager in the Research Group, Co-Director of the World Development Report 2018: Learning to Realize Education’s Promise, and Lead Economist in the Human Development department of the Africa Region of the World Bank. He works on issues of human capital and skills, service delivery, and the impact of policies and programs to improve human development outcomes—with research spanning the areas of education, health, social protection, and poverty and inequality. He has published widely in refereed journals, including studies of the impact of demand-side programs on schooling and learning; the roles of poverty, gender, orphanhood, and disability in explaining education inequalities; and the determinants of effective service delivery. He has recently co-authored the following books: Making Schools Work: New Evidence from Accountability Reforms, Youth Employment in Sub-Saharan Africa, and From Mines and Wells to Well-Built Minds: Turning Sub-Saharan Africa's Natural Resource Wealth into Human Capital. He was a core team member of the World Bank's World Development Reports in 1995 Workers in an Integrating World and 2004 Making Services Work for Poor People, and a contributor to 2007’s report Development and the Next Generation. He holds a PhD and MA from Brown University and a BA from Tufts University.

    Germán Reyes, ABCDE 2021 Speaker

    Germán Reyes

    Speaker

    Germán is a fifth-year Ph.D. student in the Department of Economics at Cornell University. He works on topics in behavioral, labor, and public economics. Prior to attending Cornell, Germán worked as a research analyst at the World Bank in Washington D.C., and as an analyst at the Ministry of Economics in Buenos Aires. Germán holds a B.A. and M.A. in Economics from the Universidad Nacional de La Plata.

    Chris Abi Nassif, ABCDE 2021 Speaker

    Christophe Abi-Nassif

    Christophe Abi-Nassif is the Lebanon program director at the Middle East Institute in Washington DC and a dual-degree graduate student at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University and the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. Prior to that, he was a Beirut-based management consultant advising public sector entities throughout the Middle East on growth strategy, operating model design and implementation, and operations launch. More recently, he was a consultant at the World Bank's Office of the Chief Economist for the Middle East and North Africa. He writes on Lebanese current affairs.

    Eva DAVOINE, ABCDE 2021 Speaker

    Eva Davoine

    Speaker

    Eva has first joined the World Bank in 2017 and has worked on several research projects related to tax and inequalities. Prior to this, Eva worked for the French Economic Council of Analysis and conducted research on various topics in political economy. In particular, she studied in depth the Yellow Vest crisis and its implications, and will present part of her analysis today. She holds a master degree in Economics from Sciences Po and will start her PhD at UC Berkeley in the fall.

    Session 4: The direct consequences of social unrest

    Photo of Aart Kraay

    Aart Kraay

    Aart Kraay is Director of Development Policy in the Development Economics Vice Presidency and World Bank Group Deputy Chief Economist. He joined the World Bank in 1995 after earning a Ph.D. in economics from Harvard University (1995), and a B.Sc. in economics from the University of Toronto (1990). His research interests include international capital movements, growth and inequality, governance, and the Chinese economy. His research on these topics has been published in scholarly journals such as the Quarterly Journal of Economics, the Review of Economics and Statistics, the Economic Journal, the Journal of Monetary Economics, the Journal of International Economics, and the Journal of the European Economic Association. He is an associate editor of the Journal of Development Economics, and has served as co-editor of the World Bank Economic Review. He has also held visiting positions at the International Monetary Fund and the Sloan School of Management at MIT, and has taught at the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University.

    Samuel Pienknagura

    Samuel Pienknagura

    Speaker

    Samuel Pienknagura is an economist at the Regional Studies Division of the IMF’s Western Hemisphere Department. Before joining the IMF, he was a Senior Economist at the World Bank. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).

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    Bob Rijkers

    Discussant

    Bob Rijkers is a Senior Economist in the Trade and International Integration Unit of the Development Research Group. He is interested in political economy, trade and labor market issues. Since joining the World Bank full-time in 2008, he has worked in the Poverty Reduction Anchor of the PREM network, the Macroeconomics and Growth Unit of the Development Economics Research Group and the Office of the Chief Economist of the Middle East and Northern Africa region. He holds a BA in Science and Social Sciences from University College Utrecht, Utrecht University and an M.Phil. and D.Phil. in Economics from the University of Oxford.

    Brian Knight, ABCDE 2021 Speaker

    Brian Knight

    Brian Knight is a Professor of Economics at Brown University, Vice Chair of the Economics Department, and a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research. He previously worked as an economist in the Division of Research and Statistics at the Federal Reserve Board and has held visiting faculty positions at Yale University and Harvard University. He received his PhD in 2000 from the University of Wisconsin-Madison and his B.S. in 1992 from Miami University. Research interests include political economy, fiscal federalism, and local public finance. His research has been published in American Economic Review, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Journal of Political Economy, Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economics and Statistics, Journal of the European Economic Association, Economic Journal, International Economic Review, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics and Journal of Public Economics. He previously served as a co-editor at the Journal of Public Economics and is on the Editorial Board at the American Economic Review.

    Hadzi Vaskov Metodij, ABCDE 2021 Speaker

    Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov

    Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov is the IMF’s regional resident representative for Central America, Panama and the Dominican Republic since February 2021. In this capacity, Dr. Hadzi-Vaskov fosters the dialogue with the Central American authorities on regional and policy issues, and manages the Fund’s regional outreach activities. Previously, he worked as senior economist in the IMF’s Western Hemisphere Department and served as advisor to executive director at the IMF’s Executive Board. He holds a Ph.D. in economics from Utrecht University in the Netherlands.

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    Michael Woolcock

    Michael Woolcock is Lead Social Scientist in the Development Research Group at the World Bank, where he was worked since 1998. For sixteen of these years he has also taught part-time at Harvard Kennedy School. His research interests include transitions in local justice systems and strategies for enhancing capability for policy implementation to program evaluation and popular culture; most recently he co-led the World Bank’s Poverty and Shared Prosperity 2020 Report. An Australian national, he has a PhD in comparative-historical sociology from Brown University.

    Session Posters 3: Policy responses and social unrest

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    Haishan Fu

    Moderator

    Haishan Fu is the Director of the World Bank’s Development Data Group and Co-Chair of the Bank’s Development Data Council. In this capacity Haishan leads and coordinates the development and implementation of the Bank’s development data agenda. She has been an active leader in the global statistical community, having served or currently serving as a member of the UN Secretary General’s Independent Expert Advisory Group on Data Revolution for Sustainable Development, Council Member of the International Statistical Institute, and Co-Chair of the Committee for the Coordination of Statistical Activities among over 45 UN and other international development agencies. Prior to joining the Bank in 2014, Haishan was Director of the Statistics Division at UNESCAP, served as the first Chief of Statistics of UNDP’s Human Development Report, and worked as Senior Research Associate at the Guttmacher Institute and Post-Doctoral Fellow at the University of Pennsylvania. Haishan holds a Ph.D. in Demography from Princeton University and a B.A. in Economics from Peking University.

    Alice Evans, ABCDE 2021 Speaker

    Alice Evans

    Dr Alice Evans is a Lecturer in International Development at King’s College London. She is writing a book on “The Great Gender Divergence”: why all societies have become more gender equal, but why some are some are more gender equal than others.

    Katrina Kosec, ABCDE 2021 Speaker

    Katrina Kosec

    Speaker

    Katrina Kosec is a senior research fellow in the Development Strategy and Governance Division at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) where she is Theme Leader for Public Investment. She is also an adjunct professor at Johns Hopkins University. Her research focuses on the linkages between governance, public investment, gender, and economic shocks. One strand of work investigates the impacts of institutions and governance on poverty, citizen attitudes, aspirations, and trust in government. A second considers the drivers of women’s empowerment and political influence, and the gendered impacts of policies and economic shocks. Katrina has published articles in journals including the American Political Science Review, World Politics, Nature Climate Change, the Journal of Public Economics, the Journal of Development Economics, the Journal of Health Economics, and World Development. Her work has been featured in the Economist, the New York Times, the Washington Post, Foreign Affairs, and NPR. She holds a Ph.D. in Political Economics from Stanford University, where she was a National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellow in Economics.

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    Pascal Jaupart

    Speaker

    Pascal Jaupart is an economist (Young Professional Program) working in the Governance Global Practice and West Africa region. He joined the World Bank in September 2019 after completing a postdoctoral research fellowship at the University of Oxford’s Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE). His research interests include economic development, political economy, migration, and urbanization in low- and middle-income countries.

    Thorsten Janus, ABCDE 2021 Speaker

    Thorsten Janus

    Speaker

    Thorsten Janus is Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Wyoming. His research focuses on political economy, economic development, and international economics. His research has appeared in Economics & Politics, Journal of Development Economics, and Oxford Economic Papers.

    Session 5: The policy response to social unrest

    Headshot of Arianna Legovini

    Arianna Legovini

    Moderator

    Arianna Legovini built and leads the Development Impact Evaluation (DIME) group of the World Bank, The purpose of this unit is to use research to improve development practice and policy outcomes. Since joining the Bank in 2004, she has worked to understand and develop the institutions (incentives and processes) required to engage researchers, operational staff and policymakers in improving the quality in the design and implementation of development projects. The idea was, first, to use problem-based research to generate useful data and evidence that would guide policy decisions and improve outcomes. Second, it was to leverage the billions of dollars in international assistance to test out solutions to development problems in specific contexts and help countries learn for themselves how to reach and expand their production frontiers. In 2004-2008, working with like-minded partners, the ideas were put in action with the creation of the Africa Impact Evaluation initiative and its programs in education, HIV, malaria, community development, agriculture and private sector. In 2009, she imported Africa-grown lessons, processes and programs into the global impact evaluation program. By 2013, with core funding from UK Aid, she designed i2i (impact evaluation to development impact) to support the expansion of the approach across many institutional partners and across under-evaluated sectors representing the majority of development aid, including infrastructure, fragility and conflict, public sector governance, and natural resource management sectors. i2i was critical in developing Bank-wide governance structures for this work and formalizing working relationships through an improved system of incentives. Arianna is currently responsible for a $145 million dollar research program, leveraging about $3billion in WB, DFID and other partners lending, in 60 countries across the globe.

    Jaya Wen, ABCDE 2021 Speaker

    Jaya Wen

    I am an Assistant Professor in the Business, Government and the International Economy Unit at Harvard Business School. My research focuses on issues in development economics, political economy, and firm behavior.

    Andrew Beath, ABCDE 2021 Speaker

    Andrew Beath

    Speaker

    Andrew Beath is a Senior Economist in the World Bank’s Markets & Technology unit. Prior to joining the World Bank in 2010, Andrew oversaw the randomized impact evaluation of the largest development program in Afghanistan. Since joining the World Bank, Andrew has led analytical work in Afghanistan, Argentina, Bhutan, Chad, Colombia, India, Laos, Pakistan, the Philippines, the Solomon Islands, Timor-Leste, and Vietnam; co-led the preparation of a multi-sectoral investment operation in Pakistan; and served in the office of President Jim Yong Kim. Andrew holds doctoral and master’s degrees from Harvard University.”

    Jeremy Laurent-Lucchetti, ABCDE 2021 Speaker

    Jeremy Laurent-Lucchetti

    Jeremy Laurent-Lucchetti is professor of economics at the Geneva School of Economics and Management of the University of Geneva. His research interests lie at the intersection of political economy, environmental economics and development economics. He currently focuses in explaining the roots of civil conflicts, riots and other form of political violence. He is a member of the CEPR Policy and Research Network (PRN) on "Preventing Conflict: Policies for Peace". In parallel, he is also interested on studying the impact of online learning and hybrid teaching methods on students achievements. He has worked on several policy reports for a number of institutions such as the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification, the Quebec Ministry of Transportation or the Canadian Ministry of Agriculture.

    Closing policy panel

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    Norman Loayza

    Moderator

    Norman Loayza is Director of the Global Indicators Group in the Development Economics Vice presidency of the World Bank. From 2015 to 2020, he led the Asia hub of the Development Research Group. He was director of the World Development Report 2014: Risk and Opportunity – Managing Risk for Development. He joined the World Bank in 1994 and served most of his career in the Development Research Group. His research covers various areas of economic and social development, including economic growth, macroeconomics, and the business environment. Mr. Loayza holds a Ph.D. in Economics from Harvard University.

    Erica Chenoweth, ABCDE 2021 closing panel speaker

    Erica Chenoweth

    Closing Panel Speaker

    Erica Chenoweth is the Frank Stanton Professor of the First Amendment at Harvard Kennedy School and a Susan S. and Kenneth L. Wallach Professor at the Radcliffe Institute for Advanced Study. Chenoweth's research focuses on political violence and its alternatives. Chenoweth was ranked among the Top 100 Global Thinkers of 2013 by Foreign Policy magazine and also won the 2014 Karl Deutsch Award, given annually by the International Studies Association to the scholar under 40 who has made the most significant impact on the field of international politics or peace research.

    Ibrahim Elbadawi, ABCDE closing panel speaker

    Ibrahim Elbadawi

    Closing Panel Speaker

    Ibrahim Elbadawi is the Managing Director of the Economic Research Forum (since January 2017- August 2019; August 2020- present). Minister of Finance and Economic Planning, Republic of Sudan (Sept 2019-July 2020). Professor Emeritus, University of Khartoum. Before that he was Director at the Economic Policy & Research Center, the Dubai Economic Council (2009-2016); Lead Economist at the Development Research Group of the World Bank, which he joined in 1989; and Professor of economics at the University of Gezira in Sudan. He holds a PhD in economics and statistics from North Carolina State and Northwestern universities in the USA.

    Neil Ketchley, ABCDE 2021 closing panel speaker

    Neil Ketchley

    Closing Panel Speaker

    Neil Ketchley is Professor of Political Science at the University of Oslo. Neil's research focuses on the dynamics of street-level protest in the Arabic-speaking Middle East and North Africa. His book, Egypt in a Time of Revolution (Cambridge 2017), won the 2018 Charles Tilly Award from the American Sociological Association.

    Claudia Lopez, ABCDE 2021 Closing Panel Speaker

    Claudia López

    Closing Panel Speaker

    Claudia López Hernández was elected Mayor of Bogotá in October 2019 as the first woman in this position. She graduated in Finance, Government, and International Relations from the Universidad Externado de Colombia. She has a Master's degree in Public Administration and Urban Politics from Columbia University, New York and a Ph.D. in Political Science from Northwestern University, Illinois, USA. She has been a consultant to the United Nations and was on the list of the BBC's 100 Women announced in November 2020.

    Andrés Velasco, ABCDE 2021 Speaker

    Andrés Velasco

    Closing Panel Speaker

    Andrés Velasco is Professor of Public Policy and Dean of the School of Public Policy at the London School of Economics and Political Science. In 2017-19 he was a member of the G20 Eminent Persons Group. During 2015-16 he co-chaired the Global Panel on the Future of the Multilateral Lending Institutions. He was president of the Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association (LACEA) from 2005 to 2007. Mr. Velasco ran for the presidency of Chile in the June 2013 primaries. He also was the Minister of Finance of Chile between March 2006 and March 2010. During his tenure he was recognized as Latin American Finance Minister of the Year by several international publications. In 2013-17 Mr. Velasco served as Professor of Professional Practice in International Development at the School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University. In 2000-06 he was Sumitomo-FASID Professor of International Finance and Development at the Harvard Kennedy School. Earlier he was Associate Professor of Economics and Director of the Center for Latin American and Caribbean Studies at New York University. Mr. Velasco holds a Ph.D. in economics from Columbia University. He is the author of nearly one hundred academic articles, several academic books, and two novels.

  • Organizing Committee Chair
     

    Photo of Norman Loayza, Director for DECIG

    Norman Loayza

    Director, Global Indicators Group

    Norman Loayza is Director of the Global Indicators Group in the Development Economics Vice presidency of the World Bank. From 2015 to 2020, he led the Asia hub of the Development Research Group. He was director of the World Development Report 2014: Risk and Opportunity – Managing Risk for Development. He joined the World Bank in 1994 and served most of his career in the Development Research Group. His research covers various areas of economic and social development, including economic growth, macroeconomics, and the business environment. Mr. Loayza holds a Ph.D. in Economics from Harvard University.

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    Program Committee
     

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    Rabah Arezki

    Chief Economist, Middle East and North Africa Region

    Rabah Arezki is the Chief Economist for Middle East and North Africa Region (MNA) at the World Bank. Previously, Rabah Arezki was the Chief of the Commodities Unit in the Research Department at the International Monetary Fund. He also was a senior fellow at Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government, a non-resident fellow at the Brookings Institution, an external research associate at the University of Oxford, a resource person for the African Economic Research Consortium and a research fellow at the Economic Research Forum.

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    Photo of Marta Reynal-Querol

    Marta Reynal-Querol

    Research Professor, London School of Economics

    Marta Reynal-Querol (PhD, London School of Economics) is ICREA Research Professor at UPF and Barcelona GSE Research Professor. She is also Research Fellow of the Center for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), member of the Editorial Board of the Journal of Conflict Resolution and the European Journal of Political Economy, and member of the Council of the European Economic Association (EEA). She worked for the World Bank between 2001 and 2005. Professor Reynal has been the recipient of both a Starting Grant (2008) and a Consolidator Grant (2014) from the European Research Council (ERC). In 2011, she recieved the Banco Herrero Prize for the most outstanding Spanish economist under 40 years old.

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    Mahvish Shaukat

    Economist

    Mahvish Shaukat is an Economist in the Macroeconomics and Growth Team in the Development Research Group. Her research studies issues in governance, political economy, and public finance, with the goal of understanding how institutions and incentives shape state efficacy and citizen welfare. She received her PhD in economics from MIT in 2019.

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