Speaker: Jessica Leight is an Associate Professor of Economics at Williams College. More »
Abstract: This paper analyzes patterns of structural transformation in rural China using a newly assembled panel of county-level data including approximately 2000 counties between 2000 and 2010. More specifically, I estimate the impact of shocks to labor demand in the secondary (industrial) sector on local economic outcomes, and analyze whether there is any evidence of complementarity between these shocks and agricultural productivity shocks, proxied by county-level rainfall. The shock variables are constructed following Bartik (1991), employing the baseline composition of county employment and national fluctuations in sectoral employment. The empirical results indicate first, that there is a robust response to secondary labor demand shocks in terms of increased employment, GDP and value-added in the secondary sector, and increases in total GDP, and second, there is evidence of significant complementarity between these shocks and agricultural shocks, but only in counties that are initially less industrialized.
Last Updated: Sep 09, 2016