Zimbabwe needs to bolster resilience against climate-related shocks, with a focus on the agriculture sector as a critical pillar of the economy, according to the new Zimbabwe Economic Update (ZEU) published January 31, 2025. The report, titled Improving Resilience to Weather Shocks and Climate Change, recommends key policy areas for investments for resilience, that will help protect livelihoods and ensure sustainable agricultural development.
Agriculture is central to Zimbabwe’s food security and economic stability. The sector contributing 17% to GDP and 40% to exports, supplying 68% of raw materials to the manufacturing sector, and employing 70% of the population. However, its heavy reliance on rainfed systems and maize production leaves it vulnerable to increasingly severe climate events, particularly droughts linked to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
The ENSO significantly influences Zimbabwe’s climate, predominantly through the El Niño and La Niña phases. El Niño conditions often result in above-average temperatures and below-average rainfall, leading to droughts, while La Niña brings above-average rainfall, at times lead to floods.
Recent observations indicate that climate change is intensifying the frequency and intensity of El Niño events, exacerbating Zimbabwe's vulnerability to drought. The World Bank’s Zimbabwe Country Climate and Development Report (2024) noted that climate change had increased the frequency of droughts, which rose from 1 in 10 growing seasons between 1902 and 1979, to 1 in 4 growing seasons between 1980 and 2011.
“This has made many Zimbabweans more vulnerable to variability in rainfall patterns. This growing trend highlights the urgent need for Zimbabwe to develop robust strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of these climate variations, and better insulate their negative impact on growth,” says Dominick Revell de Waal, World Bank Senior Economist and co-author of the ZEU.
Business as usual is not an option with the cost of inaction high. Climate change could erode up to 12% of GDP annually, while the cost of adaptation is less than 1% of GDP. Every dollar invested in early, anticipatory measures saves up to $16 in future costs. . In the 2023/24 growing season, Zimbabwe experienced severe drought conditions attributed to El Niño. This resulted in a 60% decline in maize yield compared to the five-year average. The significant reduction in rainfall, coupled with high temperatures, has led to widespread food insecurity and economic hardship.
The government's ambitious target to boost agricultural output to $12.5 billion is under threat due to these climate-induced challenges. Climate shocks disrupt GDP, trade balances, and fiscal stability. The 2023/24 El Niño-induced drought alone caused approximately $363 million in damage losses. It resulted in a projected 3.2% drop in GDP, lowered export earnings, and widened the fiscal deficit by 0.9% of GDP. This is driven by both reduced revenue and higher government expenditures. Government revenue is expected to decline to 18.5% of GDP due to the slowdown in economic activity, compared to 19.2% in a no-drought scenario, and its expenditure is anticipated to rise to 20.9% of GDP, up from 20.6% in a no-drought scenario, primarily to fund food imports and increased salaries.
This cycle of drought and recovery undermines sustainable development and exacerbates poverty levels, making it imperative to enhance the resilience of the agricultural sector. “To strengthen Zimbabwe’s resilience to weather shocks and climate change, a dual approach is essential, involving substantial investment in climate adaptation and the enhancement of anticipatory actions,” says Easther Chigumira, World Bank Senior Agriculture Specialist and co-author of the report.
Climate adaptation focuses on medium-to-long-term planning to build resilience to current and future weather shocks, while anticipatory actions aim to mitigate the humanitarian impact of climate hazards through proactive measures based on forecasts and risk analysis.
The ZEU recommends key policy areas for investments in climate adaptation and anticipatory action:
i) Investing in Climate Adaptation: In the short-term, there is an opportunity to re-orient public investment from agricultural subsidy programs to investment in climate adaptation focused on research and extension services, irrigation, and landscape/watershed management.
ii) Strengthening Anticipatory Action: In the short term, priority lies with improving the early warning system and the social protection system, while in the medium term these could be enhanced through a climate fund and a scaled-up harmonized social cash transfer program. To enhance early warning and disaster response systems the country should finalize the Disaster Risk Management (DRM) legislation and continue strengthening the National Social Registry to improve targeting, enhancing coordination, and reducing duplication in social protection efforts. In the medium-term, there are significant benefits to progressively scaling-up the harmonized social cash transfer program, in order to cover all vulnerable people.