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Overview

As the conflict in Yemen continues, the country remains one of the poorest in the Middle East and North Africa, and lags behind in almost all development indexes. The truce reached between the Internationally Recognized Government (IRG) and the Houthis in April 2022 has not yet translated into a peace settlement, despite the announcement of a Roadmap in December 2023. Heightened regional tensions and attacks on Red Sea shipping by the Houthis have further complicated peace process efforts.

The ongoing conflict has crippled the economic and social development in the country and led to a deterioration in living standards of most of the population. The economy is expected to contract for the second consecutive year by 1% in 2024.Disruptions to humanitarian aid, essential imports, remittances, and livelihoods have exacerbated Yemen's already dire economic and social conditions, particularly in a society plagued by widespread poverty, deprivation, and food shortages. Furthermore, not all Yemenis in need have been receiving aid, partly due to insufficient humanitarian funding.

With crude exports blocked, the Yemeni Rial (YER) is likely to continue depreciating in the Aden market, adding upward pressure on consumer prices. Since the onset of the conflict, the steep rise in the prices of essential goods, particularly food items, has pushed food insecurity to the forefront of concerns in Yemen. Presently, over 17 million people in Yemen face food insecurity, with 3.5 million experiencing severe malnutrition. Simultaneously, approximately 18 million Yemenis lack access to safe drinking water and dependable sanitation facilities. Consequently, the country grapples with recurrent outbreaks of preventable diseases like cholera, diphtheria, measles, and dengue fever. A 2023 mobile phone survey highlighted that, with limited viable options to weather adverse shocks, households are resorting to detrimental coping mechanisms, such as withdrawing children from school (33 percent of the sample) or engaging in precarious, high-risk work (19 percent).

Looking ahead, Yemen's prospects remain uncertain due to stalled peace negotiations and persistent regional and domestic tensions. Significant downside risks could further destabilize the economy, particularly if Houthi attacks escalate in the Red Sea. On the other hand, a lasting truce or peace agreement could serve as a catalyst for rapid economic recovery. This would likely begin with the revival of internal transport and trade networks, leading to reduced costs, increased employment, and higher incomes. With international assistance, reconstruction efforts supported by development partners, and post-conflict reforms, Yemen could achieve accelerated and sustained growth in the short to medium term, helping to build the foundation for a unified, prosperous future for all Yemenis.

Last Updated: Oct 25, 2024

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different seed varieties were collected through the Rainfed Agriculture and Livestock Project in Yemen

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Nicholas Andrew Keyes