Tanzania's goal of becoming a middle-income country by 2050 could be hindered by the growing threat of climate change. If left unchecked, climate change could slow economic growth by up to 4% by 2050. It could also push an additional 2.6 million Tanzanians into poverty and force up to 13 million more citizens to migrate internally by 2050. However, by taking bold action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapting to a changing climate, Tanzania can limit these negative impacts and even boost its GDP by up to 0.5% by 2050, according to the new Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) for Tanzania published by the World Bank Group.
Tanzania’s ambition to become a middle-income country by 2050 faces climate-related challenges that could slow growth by 4%, push 2.6M people into poverty, and internally displace 13M by mid-century. The World Bank’s CCDR outlines strategies to counter these risks, including fostering climate resilience, optimizing land and water use, and investing in low-carbon infrastructure. Leveraging private sector contributions and innovative financing will be key to achieving sustainable, inclusive growth. Despite contributing just 0.31% to global emissions, Tanzania’s vulnerabilities, such as flood-prone cities and agriculture dependence, highlight the urgent need for action.
Tanzania has a unique and strong opportunity to chart a resilient, inclusive, and low-carbon growth path by including climate action and environmental protection measures—many of which complement growth and poverty reduction.
Tanzania has made impressive social and economic progress since 2000, supported by its strategic location, abundant natural resources, and political stability. However, challenges remain, including reliance on rainfed, low-productivity agriculture, rural-urban disparities, rapid population growth, and limited infrastructure in energy, transport, and digital connectivity. These factors, according to the report, have heightened the country’s vulnerability to climate risks.
"The private sector can play a pivotal role in driving sustainable development and addressing climate challenges. As highlighted in the report, public funding alone is insufficient to address the climate- related challenges,” said Mary Porter Peschka, IFC's Regional Director for Eastern Africa. “The private sector's involvement is crucial in mobilizing financing for productivity-enhancing technologies, green buildings, low-carbon manufacturing, and renewable energy infrastructure.”
In 2022, Tanzania was ranked the 47th most vulnerable country to climate change, and 150th out of 191 countries on readiness to cope with climate change. Most climate models predict an average increase in temperature by 1.23°C from baseline across the country by 2050, with wide ranging impacts.
As East Africa’s most flood-affected country, Tanzania’s major cities are extremely vulnerable to flooding, especially its low-lying cities. Approximately 463 square kilometers of urban area are at high risk of flooding from rivers, rain, and sea level rise, partly due to the encroachment of built-up areas on riverbanks and wetlands. Intense rainfall during the rainy seasons also impacts most urban areas, where a large percentage of residents live in unplanned settlements without adequate drainage.
Tanzania ranks 46th among the world’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emitters, contributing just 0.31% of global emissions in 2019. However, emissions from forests alone range from 44 to 80 million tons of carbon dioxide annually. The transport sector, the third-largest source of emissions after agriculture and forestry, adds 6.78 million tons annually. Emissions from waste also rose significantly, from 4.78 million tons in 2010 to 6.38 million tons in 2020. If current trends continue, Tanzania’s net emissions could more than double by 2050.
“Climate change disproportionately impacts those least able to cope, and without action, it could push an additional 2.6 million Tanzanians into poverty by 2050, with 27.7% of the population and 29.4% of vulnerable groups already facing at least one climate risk,” said Diji Chandrasekharan Behr, World Bank Lead Environmental Economist and co-author of the report. “Regions with higher poverty levels are more exposed to climate-related shocks, and poorer households often resort to coping strategies that worsen their economic situation, hindering efforts for inclusive growth.”
The CCDR offers a clear roadmap for integrating climate considerations into the nation's development plans. It highlights several actions which Tanzania can promote through its Vision 2050 to align climate action with sustainable economic growth and poverty reduction. They include:
I. Equip people to cope with climate risks and opportunities: Strengthening social protection, expanding access to WASH and health services, and building a climate-informed education, create climate-compatible jobs, and support vulnerable communities to be resilient to climate shocks.
II. Optimize land and water use and boost agriculture production: Improve land and water management, invest in climate smart technology and resilient infrastructure, augment knowledge of climate smart practices, and access to finance to boost agricultural productivity and climate-compatible rural economic activities, including nature-based tourism, while lowering their GHG emissions.
III. Prioritize resilient and low-carbon infrastructure: Develop and implement transport, digital and energy sector planning that improves resilience to climate events and lowers GHG emissions while unlocking the potential in emerging sectors (e.g., in energy transition minerals). Enhance coordination among local government and urban development actors to augment climate resilience and competitiveness of Tanzania’s urban areas.
IV. Strengthen institutional arrangements to support climate action: Put in place a strong governance framework that forges strong links and communication between central and local governments and citizens and inclusion of climate considerations in budget planning and monitoring. Use data and evidence to inform policymaking, engage people, and involve private sector in climate action.
V. Use a range of instruments to mobilize climate financing: Reorient public spending to climate compatible development, leverage a diversity of instruments such as parametric insurance, carbon markets or credit guarantee schemes, create an enabling environment for foreign direct investment, and attract private actors to deliver climate action in key sectors including energy, transport, and agriculture.
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