Poland

Poland is the largest economy in Central Europe, with GDP surpassing $1 trillion in 2025.

Since the return to the market economy in the 1990s, Poland has experienced remarkable economic success. Its accession to NATO in 1999 and the European Union (EU) in 2004 have firmly placed the country in the European and Trans-Atlantic community. Poland’s economy is characterized by its resilience (an over 30-year growth streak only briefly interrupted by a shallow COVID-19-induced recession), relatively strong diversification, and openness.

After more than three decades of development success, Poland is at a critical juncture. In order to ensure a sustainable and resilient future amid complex external and internal challenges and continue convergence to the EU’s top economies, Poland must rekindle its growth model and pursue next-generation reforms, engaging in a new virtuous cycle of investment, infusion, and innovation.

To be able to enter new global and regional value chains, boost labor productivity, and ensure high-quality jobs for citizens, Polish firms need to invest in research and development, human capital (including re-skilling and upskilling of employees, as well as promoting life-long learning), and technology adoption. Public sector reforms and accelerated private-sector investments are essential in this respect.

The ongoing transition to clean and affordable energy sources is key to ensure the competitiveness of Polish firms, as well as the health and the well-being of citizens. Building economic and environmental resilience in the face of strained water resources will also be key to long-term sustainability.

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Poland’s economy continues to demonstrate resilience, supported by strong fundamentals and a diversified economic base. Growth is solid, unemployment is among the lowest in the European Union (EU), the current account is close to balance, and inflation has moderated. A sound financial sector, adaptable firms, and a diversified export base continue to support this performance. Fiscal pressures remain a key policy challenge. Defense and security spending has increased in response to a more demanding regional security environment. Reducing the fiscal deficit will require improvements in spending efficiency alongside measures to strengthen revenues. A well-sequenced approach will be important to support growth while strengthening fiscal sustainability.

GDP growth accelerated from 3.2% in 2024 to 3.8% in 2025 and is expected to ease slightly to 3.6% in 2026, supported by strong domestic demand, particularly consumption and investment. Temporary policy measures, including fuel tax reductions and retail price caps, were introduced to help cushion the impact of higher fuel prices on households. Inflation is projected to average slightly above 3% in 2026, broadly in line with the central bank's target range. Faster absorption of EU Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) funds has kept investment strong, supporting construction and manufacturing.

Once the wave of RRF-financed investment recedes, growth is expected to settle slightly below 3%, at 2.9% in 2027 and 2.7% in 2028. With deficits projected to remain close to 7% of GDP in 2026–27, public debt is projected to rise from just below 60% of GDP in 2025 to above 70% by 2028. This trajectory would further constrain fiscal space, underscoring the importance of a well-defined medium-term fiscal consolidation path.

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The World Bank Group’s financing to Poland remains highly selective. This is meant to maximize impact while helping Poland address remaining development challenges and delivering global public goods.

Poland has made strides in strengthening its overall economic governance systems over the last three decades and reached remarkable economic success. However, economic and social institutions to manage key transitions—demographic, green, and digital—need to be developed further on the national and subnational level to achieve sustainable graduation from the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development. At the same time, public sector reforms must be paired with vast private capital mobilization to support the necessary investments at scale.

In the face of new challenges and a rapidly evolving global context, the World Bank Group seeks to help Poland recalibrate its growth model to reboot productivity growth and competitiveness and proactively address issues related to energy security, technological transitions, and water resilience.

In cooperation with the public and private sector in the country, the World Bank Group is focusing on enabling innovation and investments for higher quality jobs through unlocking private investment and innovation capacity, while facilitating the necessary labor and skills transitions in the face of rapid technological changes.

In the energy sector, analytical support from the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, combined with the International Finance Corporation’s private and local government sector investments, will seek to increase innovative renewable energy sources (RES) power generation, ensure the enabling transmission and storage infrastructure is in place, and strengthen the grid to accommodate additional clean energy.

Water resilience is another focus area for the World Bank Group, which will focus its efforts on protecting water as a strategic asset and safeguarding people and the economy from flood- and drought-related disasters.

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