A vast country in the Sahel, Mali is a low-income economy, with little diversification and exposed to fluctuations in commodity prices. Its rapid population growth (fertility rate of 5.88 children per woman in 20181) and climate change threaten agriculture and food security.
The extreme poverty rate increased due to the combined effects of security crises and the pandemic, reaching 15.9% in 2021. Extreme poverty worsened further to 19.1% in 2022, driven by the erosion of purchasing power among the most vulnerable, due to rising prices, consumption, and low economic growth. The densely populated rural areas in the south concentrate 90% of the country’s poverty.
Political situation
Mali has been experiencing a period of instability and conflict since the 2012 military coup and the occupation of the northern regions by armed groups.
Following the institutional breakdown on August 18, 2020, a government and a National Transition Council (CNT), acting as a National Assembly, were set up pending the organization of democratic elections. Colonel Assimi Goïta was proclaimed head of state on May 28, 2021, by the Constitutional Court.
The inter-Malian dialogue for peace and national reconciliation, organized by the transitional authorities from April 13 to May 10, 2024, was presented as an initiative aimed at restoring peace and social cohesion through “consensual solutions.” However, two recommendations garnered the most attention. One concerns the extension of the transition from three to five years before democratic elections. The other is the amendment of Article 9 of the Transition Charter to allow President Assimi Goïta to run in the next presidential election.
On July 11, the government lifted the suspension that had been imposed since April 10 on political parties. The authorities had suspended, "until further notice," the activities of political parties and associations with a political nature across the country, citing "political and security reasons."
The country's security situation significantly deteriorated on September 17, following terrorist attacks targeting the National Gendarmerie School and Bamako-Sénou Airport. A branch of Al-Qaeda’s local affiliate (JNIM) claimed responsibility for the attack. According to media reports, these attacks resulted in several deaths and injuries.
Economic situation
The economy proved resilient in 2022, with GDP growth estimated at 3.5%, despite the combined effects of ECOWAS sanctions and the consequences of the war in Ukraine, reflecting a rebound in cereal production and strong performance in the mining sector. GDP growth is expected to reach 3.7% in 2024 (0.6% per capita), supported by agriculture and services, while persistent electricity shortages are likely to hinder industrial production. The extreme poverty rate is expected to fall to 20.8%, due to lower inflation of 1.2%.
The sharp deterioration in terms of trade in 2022 eased in 2023, reflecting a drop in oil prices amidst rising gold prices. However, this was moderated by a decline in cotton exports following a weak campaign in 2022 and a recovery in import flows after the lifting of ECOWAS sanctions. These developments led to the stabilization of the current account deficit at 6.8% of GDP in 2023, while the decline in external financial flows intensified in 2023.
Budget expenditures, which had been accelerating since 2020 to address multiple shocks, continued to rise in 2023, driven by the wage bill and security spending. At the same time, tax revenues rebounded in 2023 with the resumption of trade flows after the lifting of ECOWAS sanctions and the reduction of inflationary pressures and fiscal spending needs, leading to a stabilization of the fiscal deficit at 4.8% of GDP.
Following the lifting of sanctions announced by ECOWAS, short-term priorities include preserving the benefits of regional integration through the establishment of bilateral agreements for the free movement of goods, services, people, and capital with ECOWAS countries that are not members of WAEMU, while continuing reforms aimed at improving public expenditure management and tax administration performance.
(1) Data from World Bank – World Development Indicators 2018
Last Updated: Oct 07, 2024