Over the past decade, Côte d’Ivoire has quietly, yet relentlessly, reshaped its economy. The world’s leading cocoa producer is experiencing one of the fastest sustained economic growth rates in Sub-Saharan Africa in over a decade. With real GDP growth averaging 8.2% between 2012-2019, Côte d’Ivoire successfully contained the COVID-19 pandemic and maintained a 2% rate in 2020. In 2021, the country returned to its high-growth trajectory and continues to play a central role as a regional economic hub and host country for many nationals from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and elsewhere. Côte d’Ivoire has embarked on an ambitious plan to transform its economy, moving beyond merely exporting raw materials to becoming a key player in the global value chain.
For years, the country was known as the world’s largest exporter of raw cashew nuts, providing over 25% of global supply. Today, Côte d’Ivoire has redefined itself as a leader in cashew processing, propelling exports of finished products to over 330,000 tons—an incredible leap from 9% to 30% of total production in under a decade.
Economic Overview
Côte d'Ivoire has maintained a resilient trajectory despite global and regional disruptions, posting an average real GDP growth of 6.5% between 2021 and 2023—though still shy of pre-pandemic highs. Looking ahead, growth is projected to remain robust at 6.5% in 2024, driven by strong public and private investment and buoyant domestic consumption.
The government’s fiscal consolidation efforts, focused on revenue generation and prudent debt management, have reinforced investor confidence, leading to risk rating upgrades from major agencies. This confidence boost, alongside improved terms of trade despite lower cocoa output, positions the economy for continued macroeconomic stability.
If sound macroeconomic and structural reforms are sustained, Côte d'Ivoire’s growth prospects remain favorable, with an average annual expansion of 6.5% forecast from 2024 to 2026. Key drivers include promising developments in the hydrocarbon sector, improvements in the business climate, and strategic investments in transport, digital infrastructure, and agricultural supply chains, all poised to lift productivity and growth potential.
Yet, rising geopolitical tensions and climate risks underscore the urgency of enhancing the quality of growth. The government aims to halve poverty and achieve upper-middle-income status by 2030, but deeper reforms and greater fiscal space will be crucial to realizing these ambitions. While poverty dropped to 37.5% in 2021-2022 from 39.4% in 2018, the pace of reduction remains slower than economic growth, with much of the gains concentrated in urban areas.
With tax revenues at 13.6% of GDP in 2023, there is significant potential to increase fiscal capacity, unlocking the resources needed for greater investment in human capital, social services, and job creation. Sustaining resilience will also require furthering nascent climate transition policies and exploring innovative financing mechanisms to support the shift.
Political Context
Côte d'Ivoire has maintained political and social stability in a region increasingly marked by fragility and insecurity, especially in neighboring countries. On the security front, Côte d’Ivoire has effectively contained Jihadist incursions from armed groups conducting recurrent attacks on its Northern neighbors of Mali and Burkina Faso.
However, the country is facing a humanitarian challenge in its northern part, bordering Burkina Faso, due to the influx of refugees mainly fleeing jihadist violence in the neighboring country.
Last Updated: Oct 03, 2024
