Alternatives Analysis and Financial Modelling of the Metro of Guatemala


  • SOLICITATION NUMBER: 0002008707
  • INSTITUTION:  IBRD/IDA
  • ASSIGNMENT LOCATION: Guatemala
  • ISSUE DATE AND TIME: May 02,2024 05:44
  • CLOSING DATE AND TIME: May 16,2024 23:59

Demand Projections; Technology Alternatives and Financial and Delivery Model for the Underground Metro of Guatemala  Background  The Government of Guatemala (GoG); through the National Agency of Alliances for Infrastructure Development (ANADIE) is working on the Project “Public Transportation System Profile Underground Metro of the Metropolitan Area of Guatemala”. According to current estimates; the underground metro would have an expected demand of 27;000 passengers per hour; which would be equivalent to 360;000 passengers/day (working day) in 2027.   Objetives  The objectives of this study are as follows: i. to collect and review existing studies on the corridor under study; ii. to assess the feasibility of current demand projections and forecast demand into the future; iii. to evaluate several transport alternatives that would accommodate projected demand; iv. to perform a high-level financial modelling of the 3 higher-ranking alternatives; and vi. to identify the best model to deliver the Project.   Activities  The consultant will forecast future travel demand for the corridor for the period 2025-2040. Major developments planned for the corridor should be considered to explain possible increases in current demand and vehicular traffic.  The consultant will evaluate several technological alternatives to accommodate projected demand; i.e.; how well (or poorly) could they solve existing and future issues and challenges in terms of demand and transportation related goals and objectives. The purpose of the study will be to determine the preferred alternative for the corridor; including the specific technology and alignment that provides the best option for meeting future transportation needs while also helping to shape; support; and focus future economic development and revitalization of the corridor. The evaluation of the costs; benefits; and impacts should focus on trade-offs between alternatives and provide the information in an easy-to-understand format so that local decision-makers may comprehend the differences between alternatives.  The consultant will carry out a high-level financial modelling. This will include potential financing/procurement arrangements; costs (both initial capital and operating/maintenance); revenue potential (operating and other; e.g.; joint development at station sites; etc.); potential environmental issues and impacts; potential impacts on existing and currently proposed land use development plans (an assessment of the potential to attract/induce development as the result of each proposed transit improvement alternative); institutional and financial feasibility. The consultant will evaluate recommended business models on the preferred alternative to design a strategy for project delivery. Topics to be covered include the scheme for delivery (should the project be structured as a public project or a PPP); base for remuneration (fares or availability payment); duration of possible PPP scheme; and public contributions for CAPEX and OPEX.

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