The short-term economic outlook for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has not fundamentally changed and remains “cautiously pessimistic,” as described in the January 2016 MENA Quarterly Economic Brief.
The new issue of the MENA Economic Monitor predicts that regional GDP growth will average 3% for 2016. Due to a combination of civil wars and refugee inflows, terrorist attacks, cheap oil, and a subdued global economic recovery, prospects for faster growth are slim. However, the report argues that if the recent truce in Syria and the ongoing peace talks in Yemen and Libya materialize - in turn reducing the spread of insecurity and conflict elsewhere in the region – economic growth in MENA could improve over the forecast period (2017 and 2018).
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